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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
GD
Primary Facts
Aerospace & Defense
Name:
-
Sector:
1.83B
Industry:
224.88
CEO:
Ms. Phebe Novakovic
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.377829681
0.257342952
General Dynamics Corporation (XNYS:GD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION (XNYS:GD)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$225.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$231.32
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$225.69
Price Upper limit ($) :
$237.77
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P414
This week:
$216.52
This month :
$206.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
274.25M
Market Cap Classification:
61.58B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-10.93%
$187.47
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$245.79
9.15%
$203.97
$263.68
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$236.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$186.08
$213.61
$239.97
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Aerospace & Defense
Sharpe Ratio:
GD, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.08%
1.062058909
Sharpe ratio is 106.21% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Aerospace & Defense
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.25%
Yearly returns:
11.98%
Comparison of returns:
0.147090153
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 14.71% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
GD is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.77
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -1.85% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.84%
Monthly Volatility:
4.10%
Yearly Volatility:
8.21%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
35.78%
-69.72%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.72% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.72%
Monthly VaR:
-8.32%
How Much Can the price of
Aerospace & Defense
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$193.09
This translates to price declining to:
-14%
This translates to price declining to:
-57.62%
Severe Crash Probability
-16.63%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
0.58%
GD is a 17.40% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 0.58% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
GD is a 17.40% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Aerospace & Defense
0.853
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.648
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.662
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.85
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -15.30% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.548
-0.171
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -17.08% lower than peers
-0.153039991
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -12.18% below industry mean WACC
-39.42%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.937
6.567
1.901
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Aerospace & Defense
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 190% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.105
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -10.51% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.78%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.57%
Overall debt rating:
1.24%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.57%
-12.18%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $71.38
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -83.14% below the industry mean
-85.47%
EPS:
Three Billion Two Hundred Forty-Three Million Five Hundred Ninety-Four Thousand Four Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -69.66% lower than the industry
-119.99%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 22.81% above the industry mean
-
-172.5092955
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 29% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Aerospace & Defense
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -39.42% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.04
-0.594849899
548.8719358
-0.590286941
$19.02
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $88.03
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$140.28
-0.831401503
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -83.14% below the industry mean
-
-0.696550127
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -85.47% below industry average
9.56%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 9.56% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 10.06%
$1.26
Previous Dividend: $1.26
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.26
Previous Dividend: $4.90
Expected next dividend best case: $1.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.20
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.15
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.99%
Expected next dividend payment date: 11/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 08/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-04-07--$1.26
2021-10-07--$1.19
2022-06-30--$1.26
2022-01-13--$1.19
2021-07-01--$1.19
-1.150553473
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
56.99%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.2 years
Debt to assets ratio:
20.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
65.71%
-56.64%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -56.64% below industry average
1.89
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
-109.35%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
26.2123215
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.26%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.708
30.71%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.708
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.501
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.076
Kurtosis
0.081
5.486
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.362
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Aerospace & Defense
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
6.45B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -101.71% lower than the industry
-102.16%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
6.45B
Effective Tax Rate:
2.93%
-0.350039858
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 50.92% higher than the industry
129.82%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -102.16% lower than the industry
50.92%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 188.81% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 129.82% higher than the industry
-0.532074597
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$43.16
-0.859704484
Current ratio is -53.21% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -17250.93% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -85.97% below industry average
0.082974334
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 8% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.287255573
Profit generated per employee:
$18.13
395%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 395% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-8.632632542
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -863% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-8.632632542
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Aerospace & Defense
$355.06
EMERSON ELECTRIC CO. (XNYS:EMR)
JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL PLC (XNYS:JCI)
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPORATION (XNYS:NOC)
EATON CORPORATION PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:ETN)
WASTE MANAGEMENT, INC. (XNYS:WM)
IHS Markit Ltd. (XNYS:INFO)
ROPER TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:ROP)
FEDEX CORPORATION (XNYS:FDX)
Current Analyst Ratings
$11.68
Strong buy�33%
Buy�29%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/3/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
38.47B
32.03B
67%
-
2.31B
2.31B
-
-
34.34B
-
207.00M
888.00M
52%
598.00M
- 256000.00K
40%
598.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
730.00M
Differed Income Tax :
213.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 106000.00K
Change in Working Capital :
96.00M
Accounts Receivables:
1.11B
Other Working Capital:
23.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
675.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 72000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
1.97B
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
4/3/2022
2022
Q1
2.91B
-
2.91B
10.90B
5.55B
1.44B
20.79B
5.45B
20.11B
1.93B
-
-
2.59B
30.08B
-
50.88B
3.19B
1.34B
-
6.36B
3.15B
14.04B
11.84B
5.16B
18.83B
-
32.86B
482.00M
35.80B
- 1865000.0K
Value
2.31B
-
18.01B
50.88B
-
13.17B
-
-
- 147000.00K
- 147000.00K
-
-
- 294000.00K
- 330000.00K
107.00M
- 517000.00K
-
1.30B
2.91B
1.60B
1.97B
- 141000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
11.12843439
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Aerospace & Defense
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
284.1120558
$284.11
$300.39
$317.61
$335.81