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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
GAIN
Primary Facts
Asset Management
Name:
-
Sector:
14.42M
Industry:
14.05
CEO:
Mr. David Gladstone
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
Gladstone Investment Corporation (XNAS:GAIN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
GLADSTONE INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:GAIN)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$14.16
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$14.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.11
Price Upper limit ($) :
$15.36
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P479
This week:
$13.41
This month :
$12.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
33.21M
Market Cap Classification:
466.86M
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-15.67%
$11.19
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.67
11.24%
$12.43
$17.02
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.93
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.08
$13.17
$15.22
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Asset Management
Sharpe Ratio:
GAIN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.80%
-0.424776835
Sharpe ratio is -42.48% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Asset Management
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.10%
Yearly returns:
4.60%
Comparison of returns:
-0.4993932
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -49.94% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
GAIN is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.39
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -79.71% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.23%
Monthly Volatility:
4.98%
Yearly Volatility:
9.97%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
43.44%
-52.15%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -52.15% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.56%
Monthly VaR:
-10.19%
How Much Can the price of
Asset Management
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$11.55
This translates to price declining to:
-18%
This translates to price declining to:
-70.60%
Severe Crash Probability
-20.38%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
23.23%
GAIN is a 43.84% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 23.23% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
GAIN is a 43.84% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Asset Management
1.384
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.742
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.77
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.38
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -18.32% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
0.664
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is 66.35% higher than peers
-0.183203552
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 49.93% above industry mean WACC
-51.89%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.089
0.441
-5.113
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Asset Management
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -511% below the market average
-0.144
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -14.41% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
7.65%
Overall debt rating:
6.04%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.65%
49.93%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.21
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -36.59% below the industry mean
-129.62%
EPS:
One Hundred Two Million Two Hundred Seventy-One Thousand Four Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-68.60%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -3.18% below the industry mean
-
-0.82278082
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.68%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -11% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Asset Management
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -51.89% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
6.94
-0.570145629
49.73520674
-0.717503939
$1.07
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $34.62
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$3.23
-0.365882449
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -36.59% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -129.62% below industry average
-121.98%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -121.98% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 59.81%
$0.08
Previous Dividend: $0.08
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.08
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Expected next dividend best case: $0.09
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.06
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 20/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 22/06/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-05-19--$0.08
2022-03-22--$0.08
2022-06-21--$0.08
2022-04-21--$0.08
2022-02-17--$0.08
-0.456663592
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
34.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.2 years
Debt to assets ratio:
20.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
40.67%
-54.11%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -54.11% below industry average
-1.06
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
152.88%
5.68%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
21.43674821
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.36%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.634
10.00%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.634
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.402
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.064
Kurtosis
0.083
10.063
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.753
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Asset Management
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
6.79M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -70.32% lower than the industry
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
6.79M
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -63.98% lower than the industry
-85.90%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-
-63.98%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -106.02% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -85.90% lower than the industry
-0.535941536
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$5.15
-
Current ratio is -53.59% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -82.28% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
0.121477401
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 12% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.107349615
Profit generated per employee:
-$1.41
-118%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -118% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-2.741233303
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -274% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-2.741233303
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Asset Management
$60.83
DONEGAL GROUP INC. (XNAS:DGICA)
HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:HTBI)
NGAC
WEST BANCORPORATION, INC. (XNAS:WTBA)
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLCO)
KHOSLA VENTURES ACQUISITION CO. (XNAS:KVSA)
APXT
NORTH ATLANTIC ACQUISITION CORPORATION (XNAS:NAAC)
Current Analyst Ratings
$3.08
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
107.38M
-
100%
-
6.40M
6.40M
-
-
-
59.65M
13.08M
- 74900.00K
-746%
-
-
57%
-
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
47.14M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
11.53M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 44252.00K
Investments in PP&E:
14.42M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
6/30/2021
2022
Q1
26.80M
-
26.80M
4.39M
-
-
-
-
-
-
678.59M
-
-
-
713.19M
713.19M
2.63M
-
-
-
-
-
171.05M
-
171.05M
463.71M
292.65M
33.00K
- 7190.00K
-
Value
6.40M
427.70M
420.54M
713.19M
-
171.05M
-
-
-
-
- 10300.00K
-
-
- 8965.00K
29.73M
10.46M
-
24.88M
27.28M
2.40M
14.42M
-
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Asset Management
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
42.62137187
$15.44
$46.59
$50.92
$55.65