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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
FWRG
Primary Facts
Restaurants
Name:
-
Sector:
- 3469.00K
Industry:
17.31
CEO:
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
6.037500555
26.25512861
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (XNAS:FWRG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:FWRG)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$17.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.99
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.47
Price Upper limit ($) :
$18.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P16
This week:
$16.12
This month :
$14.66
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
59.08M
Market Cap Classification:
1.01B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-7.83%
$12.
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.34
12.95%
$14.28
$22.83
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.00
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.79
$15.62
$19.53
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Restaurants
Sharpe Ratio:
FWRG, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.65%
-2.100895089
Sharpe ratio is -210.09% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Restaurants
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
-0.05%
Monthly returns:
-0.26%
Yearly returns:
-12.31%
Comparison of returns:
-1.768581992
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -176.86% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
FWRG is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.44
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -179.61% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
3.31%
Monthly Volatility:
7.41%
Yearly Volatility:
14.82%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
64.60%
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-
Weekly VaR:
-6.86%
Monthly VaR:
-15.33%
How Much Can the price of
Restaurants
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$12.51
This translates to price declining to:
-28%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-30.67%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
85.44%
FWRG is a 116.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 85.44% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
FWRG is a 116.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Restaurants
1.164
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.013
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.16
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -14.02% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.607
-
Average Industry Beta:
-
-0.14018284
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 14.21% above industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-
-7.525
-14.916
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Restaurants
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -1492% below the market average
-0.105
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -10.46% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.80%
After-tax cost of debt:
-3.88%
Overall debt rating:
-3.06%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-3.88%
14.21%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -40.49% below the industry mean
93.17%
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is 614.41% higher than the industry
-1935.58%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -243.22% below the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.41%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -94% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Restaurants
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
-
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$8.92
-0.404855968
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -40.49% below the industry mean
-
6.144128911
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 93.17% above the industry average
-161.04%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -161.04% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
84.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
41.28%
Net debt to assets ratio:
85.44%
-73.58%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -73.58% below industry average
-1.05
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.7x
-170.09%
0.41%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.869814822
Statistical significance of correlation:
-1.03%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.057
-88.92%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.057
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.118
Kurtosis
0.117
0.471
Skewness of returns:
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
0.210
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Restaurants
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
250.64M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -76.76% lower than the industry
-81.59%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
250.64M
Effective Tax Rate:
19.93%
-1.422622966
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -92.27% lower than the industry
603.25%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -81.59% lower than the industry
-92.27%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -104.98% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 603.25% higher than the industry
-0.344934888
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$7.40
-1.190271599
Current ratio is -34.49% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -119.03% below industry average
-0.530336329
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -53% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.935645468
Profit generated per employee:
$0.28
-92%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -92% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.143494375
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -114% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.143494375
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Restaurants
$18.92
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
-
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/27/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
526.76M
276.12M
248%
-
91.30M
91.30M
-
382.29M
749.72M
-
- 18609.00K
24.27M
1%
- 787.00K
1.61M
10%
- 787.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.64M
Differed Income Tax :
8.22M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.05M
Change in Working Capital :
2.29M
Accounts Receivables:
- 13241.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 3095.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 10832.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
4.03M
Investments in PP&E:
7.99M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/27/2022
2022
Q1
46.52M
-
46.52M
3.03M
3.73M
7.98M
61.25M
498.69M
345.22M
142.86M
-
-
1.32M
988.09M
-
1.05B
7.97M
42.78M
4.70M
3.00M
29.50M
83.25M
436.91M
3.28M
454.73M
-
537.97M
590.00K
- 100399.00K
-
Value
473.60M
611.17M
511.36M
1.05B
-
479.69M
-
-
- 11458.00K
- 11458.00K
- 1796.00K
-
-
-
- 78.00K
- 1874.00K
-
- 5343.00K
46.77M
52.12M
7.99M
- 11458.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-187.2350237
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Restaurants
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
13.99600051
$14.00
$15.09
$16.27
$17.54