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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
FRHC
Primary Facts
Capital Markets
Name:
-
Sector:
- 73703.00K
Industry:
56.07
CEO:
Mr. Timur Turlov
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.936943615
-0.392159089
Freedom Holding Corp. (XNAS:FRHC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
FREEDOM HOLDING CORP. (XNAS:FRHC)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$56.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$58.27
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$56.42
Price Upper limit ($) :
$60.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P143
This week:
$53.48
This month :
$50.28
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
59.54M
Market Cap Classification:
3.27B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-8.99%
$44.49
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.32
17.43%
$49.82
$68.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$59.23
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.09
$52.91
$60.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Capital Markets
Sharpe Ratio:
FRHC, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
3.49%
1.623653574
Sharpe ratio is 162.37% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Capital Markets
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
1.13%
Yearly returns:
54.02%
Comparison of returns:
1.156386953
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 115.64% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
FRHC is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.02
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 302.23% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.36%
Monthly Volatility:
5.27%
Yearly Volatility:
10.55%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
45.98%
-65.66%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.66% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.62%
Monthly VaR:
-10.33%
How Much Can the price of
Capital Markets
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$47.28
This translates to price declining to:
-16%
This translates to price declining to:
-71.56%
Severe Crash Probability
-20.66%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
24.90%
FRHC is a 45.80% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 24.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
FRHC is a 45.80% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Capital Markets
1.169
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.403
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.882
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.17
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 2.12% above industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.966
0.128
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is 12.82% higher than peers
0.021197443
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 5.57% above industry mean WACC
207.89%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.248
2.048
27.288
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Capital Markets
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 2729% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
0.015
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 1.51% above industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.84%
Overall debt rating:
7.77%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.84%
5.57%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 78.22% above the industry mean
665.57%
EPS:
Six Million Nine Hundred Seventy-One Thousand One Hundred Sixty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
413.69%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 183.18% above the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 11.36%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -49% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Capital Markets
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 207.89% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.17
-0.241194124
2.399285586
22.36945644
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$7.34
0.782155229
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 78.22% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 665.57% above the industry average
-625.69%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -625.69% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-45.65%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.7 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-7.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
23.58%
-95.00%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.00% below industry average
-0.85
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.0x
1168.53%
11.36%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
15.99059226
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.18%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.521
-18.14%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.521
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.272
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.039
Kurtosis
-0.053
5.658
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.776
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Capital Markets
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
392.20M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 263.06% higher than the industry
369.16%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
392.20M
Effective Tax Rate:
0.70%
-0.445336903
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 163.39% higher than the industry
277.16%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 369.16% higher than the industry
163.39%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -84.59% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 277.16% higher than the industry
-0.709877506
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$1.32
10.34975866
Current ratio is -70.99% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is 1034.98% above industry average
-0.915440969
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -92% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.490302669
Profit generated per employee:
$6.78
-36%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -36% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0.130106389
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 13% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0.130106389
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Capital Markets
$55.29
Calamos Strat Tot Ret (XNAS:CSQ)
FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:FULT)
Mr. Cooper Group Inc. (XNAS:COOP)
INDEPENDENT BANK CORP. (XNAS:INDB)
ROOT, INC. (XNAS:ROOT)
WESBANCO, INC. (XNAS:WSBC)
TCBIP
CVB FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:CVBF)
Current Analyst Ratings
$0.12
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
437.16M
44.84M
270%
-
-
-
-
118.09M
162.88M
22.98M
51.28M
6.70M
91632%
38.02M
- 52235.85K
61575%
38.02M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
51.76M
Differed Income Tax :
1.31M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 2216.00K
Change in Working Capital :
2.16M
Accounts Receivables:
- 117412.00K
Other Working Capital:
128.26M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 122275.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 6542.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 70941.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 2762.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
6/30/2021
2022
Q1
674.08M
825.37M
1.50B
134.84M
-
419.05M
2.05B
37.53M
7.89M
9.49M
-
-
19.11M
74.02M
-
2.13B
150.67M
442.49M
21.36M
1.07B
21.36M
1.68B
78.88M
30.98M
112.11M
-
1.79B
58.00K
260.39M
- 32746.0K
Value
118.09M
106.83M
334.53M
2.13B
-
521.38M
-
-
179.00K
- 2583.00K
- 10105.00K
-
-
-
16.79M
6.69M
23.17M
- 43664.00K
1.09B
1.14B
- 70941.00K
- 2762.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-19.90187045
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Capital Markets
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
40.85934575
$60.77
$44.07
$47.53
$51.26