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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
FIBK
Primary Facts
Banks�Regional
Name:
-
Sector:
55.40M
Industry:
39.39
CEO:
Mr. Kevin Riley
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.15822552
-1.992743813
First Interstate Bancsystem, Inc. (XNAS:FIBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:FIBK)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$39.6
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$40.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$39.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$41.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P469
This week:
$37.29
This month :
$34.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
106.82M
Market Cap Classification:
4.14B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-15.31%
$30.01
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.68
15.9%
$34.10
$49.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.28
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.65
$36.50
$43.23
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Banks�Regional
Sharpe Ratio:
FIBK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.23%
-0.486577945
Sharpe ratio is -48.66% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Banks�Regional
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.13%
Yearly returns:
6.07%
Comparison of returns:
-0.443928148
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -44.39% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
FIBK is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.88
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -72.33% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.61%
Monthly Volatility:
5.83%
Yearly Volatility:
11.65%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
50.79%
-91.55%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -91.55% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.33%
Monthly VaR:
-11.91%
How Much Can the price of
Banks�Regional
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$31.21
This translates to price declining to:
-21%
This translates to price declining to:
-82.50%
Severe Crash Probability
-23.82%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
44.01%
FIBK is a 68.09% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 44.01% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
FIBK is a 68.09% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Banks�Regional
0.941
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.837
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.709
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.94
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -2.32% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.886
-0.397
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -39.74% lower than peers
-0.023192147
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -16.87% below industry mean WACC
-49.40%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.003
-4.043
-2.247
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Banks�Regional
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -225% below the market average
-0.016
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -1.57% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.03%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.19%
Overall debt rating:
4.10%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.19%
-16.87%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $44.24
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 39.14% above the industry mean
-86.77%
EPS:
Two Hundred Ten Million Two Hundred Twenty-Eight Thousand Four Hundred Eighty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-74.43%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -8.63% below the industry mean
-
0.229466783
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 35.77%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -64% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Banks�Regional
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -49.40% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.67
0.746364039
23.82458587
0.65333409
$1.33
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $71.14
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$6.62
0.391404022
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 39.14% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -86.77% below industry average
-77.60%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -77.60% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 41.66%
$0.41
Previous Dividend: $0.41
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.41
Previous Dividend: $1.64
Expected next dividend best case: $0.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.41
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.68%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/10/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
2022-02-09--$0.41
2021-08-06--$0.41
2022-05-09--$0.41
2021-11-05--$0.41
2021-05-10--$0.41
-0.758878399
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-102.52%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.3 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-10.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.24%
-99.49%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.49% below industry average
14.88
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.0x
-
35.77%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
12.78505665
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.42%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.439
-12.24%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.439
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.193
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
-0.005
5.080
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.150
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Banks�Regional
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -57.63% lower than the industry
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
2.24%
0.109206154
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -85.96% lower than the industry
-73.86%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-
-85.96%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 1488.21% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -73.86% lower than the industry
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$2.65
-
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 22.95% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-0.209919483
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -21% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.636739642
Profit generated per employee:
$1.81
-68%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -68% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.717472917
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -72% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.717472917
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Banks�Regional
$57.75
CVB FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:CVBF)
TCBIP
UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC. (XNAS:UCBI)
Mr. Cooper Group Inc. (XNAS:COOP)
FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:FULT)
MARATHON DIGITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MARA)
FIRSTCASH HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:FCFS)
NAVIENT CORPORATION (XNAS:NAVI)
Current Analyst Ratings
$1.92
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
707.10M
-
-
-
281.20M
281.20M
-
-
-
560.20M
14.70M
37.80M
125%
33.70M
-
96%
33.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 33400.00K
Differed Income Tax :
13.30M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 6500.00K
Change in Working Capital :
2.40M
Accounts Receivables:
16.70M
Other Working Capital:
13.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
72.40M
Investments in PP&E:
64.90M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
2.01B
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
3.81B
6.28B
10.10B
81.10M
-
-
-
444.40M
1.14B
142.30M
9.50B
-
-
11.23B
44.39B
33.16B
272.10M
-
-
-
-
-
283.50M
-
283.50M
30.00B
29.72B
2.67B
974.50M
- 202000.0K
Value
-
-
3.44B
33.16B
15.79B
283.50M
- 1514500.00K
932.90M
97.20M
1.52B
- 157900.00K
100.00K
- 1400.00K
- 44700.00K
83.00M
- 120900.00K
-
1.47B
3.81B
2.34B
64.90M
- 9500.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-777.6797408
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Banks�Regional
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
45.18248869
$45.18
$48.04
$51.08
$54.31