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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
EXR
Primary Facts
REIT�Industrial
Name:
-
Sector:
279.48M
Industry:
199.6
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Margolis
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.951650501
0.291947866
Extra Space Storage Inc. (XNYS:EXR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC. (XNYS:EXR)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$200.15
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$202.9
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$200.52
Price Upper limit ($) :
$206.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P116
This week:
$191.5
This month :
$181.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
133.91M
Market Cap Classification:
27.11B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-15.47%
$163.35
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$219.56
8.18%
$179.64
$237.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$210.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$162.05
$189.12
$213.84
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
REIT�Industrial
Sharpe Ratio:
EXR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.42%
1.146451792
Sharpe ratio is 114.65% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
REIT�Industrial
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.57%
Yearly returns:
27.48%
Comparison of returns:
0.953729103
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 95.37% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
EXR is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.21
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 128.00% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.03%
Monthly Volatility:
4.55%
Yearly Volatility:
9.09%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
39.63%
-34.07%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.07% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.06%
Monthly VaR:
-9.08%
How Much Can the price of
REIT�Industrial
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$170.18
This translates to price declining to:
-15%
This translates to price declining to:
-62.90%
Severe Crash Probability
-18.16%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
9.80%
EXR is a 28.16% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 9.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
EXR is a 28.16% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
REIT�Industrial
0.492
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.484
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.76
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.49
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -33.07% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.173
-0.579
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -57.91% lower than peers
-0.330650737
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -28.79% below industry mean WACC
-23.36%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.075
2.565
13.340
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
REIT�Industrial
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 1334% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.203
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -20.34% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.30%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.69%
Overall debt rating:
2.12%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.69%
-28.79%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $637.68
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 20.09% above the industry mean
53.18%
EPS:
Eight Hundred Twenty-Eight Million Five Hundred Seven Thousand Six Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
165.06%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 120.95% above the industry mean
-
1.74276226
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 16.94%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -79% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
REIT�Industrial
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -23.36% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.03
-0.553945411
415.3741527
-0.519469378
$7.45
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $741.79
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$12.41
0.200894499
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 20.09% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 53.18% above the industry average
372.08%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 372.08% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 24.45%
$1.50
Previous Dividend: $1.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.50
Previous Dividend: $5.50
Expected next dividend best case: $1.70
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.30
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.61%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-03-14--$1.50
2021-09-14--$1.25
2022-06-14--$1.50
2021-12-14--$1.25
2021-06-14--$1.00
-1.610232748
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
192.81%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.5 years
Debt to assets ratio:
58.44%
Net debt to assets ratio:
188.01%
-66.17%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -66.17% below industry average
-150.85
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.3x
-72.60%
16.94%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
17.07142577
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.23%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.546
-11.44%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.546
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.298
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.05
Kurtosis
0.059
7.586
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.851
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
REIT�Industrial
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
1.25B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 55.02% higher than the industry
81.59%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
1.25B
Effective Tax Rate:
0.55%
3.170667343
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 101.52% higher than the industry
210.61%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 81.59% higher than the industry
101.52%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -15084.87% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 210.61% higher than the industry
-0.94065957
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$45.07
-2.836458577
Current ratio is -94.07% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 174.28% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -283.65% below industry average
-0.765522061
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -77% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.790191947
Profit generated per employee:
$9.46
-72%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -72% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.663655172
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -66% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.663655172
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
REIT�Industrial
$285.73
RITHM CAPITAL CORP. (XNYS:RITM)
INVITATION HOMES INC. (XNYS:INVH)
WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY (XNYS:WY)
Ke Holdings Inc (XNYS:BEKE)
DUKE REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:DRE)
SUN COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:SUI)
ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:ESS)
ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC. (XNYS:ARE)
Current Analyst Ratings
$6.17
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�46%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.66B
409.15M
301%
-
108.42M
108.42M
-
251.19M
768.75M
56.39M
168.03M
251.19M
304%
19.33M
- 70888.00K
216%
19.33M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
217.72M
Differed Income Tax :
67.91M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
4.54M
Accounts Receivables:
2.00M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 4698.00K
Investments in PP&E:
287.47M
Net Acquisitions:
- 7985.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 3979.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
65.98M
-
65.98M
-
-
6.69M
72.67M
236.96M
-
-
1.17B
-
9.11B
10.52B
-
10.59B
136.86M
220.00M
-
-
64.51M
421.36M
6.04B
256.72M
6.29B
-
6.71B
1.34M
- 127193.00K
6.5M
Value
359.60M
3.33B
3.21B
9.92B
-
6.26B
-
-
- 109408.00K
- 121372.00K
- 1230924.00K
-
- 3375.00K
- 202527.00K
1.27B
- 169621.00K
-
- 3528.00K
72.67M
76.19M
287.47M
- 7985.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
24.28838502
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
REIT�Industrial
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
250.8627767
$250.86
$259.16
$267.73
$276.58