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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
ED
Primary Facts
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Name:
-
Sector:
- 389000.00K
Industry:
98.48
CEO:
Mr. John McAvoy
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.901951975
-0.075755154
Consolidated Edison, Inc. (XNYS:ED) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
CONSOLIDATED EDISON, INC. (XNYS:ED)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$98.62
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$99.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$98.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$100.14
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P86
This week:
$94.83
This month :
$90.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
354.58M
Market Cap Classification:
34.66B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-13.13%
$82.14
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$107.65
18.01%
$89.31
$115.44
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$103.46
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$81.52
$93.50
$105.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Sharpe Ratio:
ED, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.17%
0.159954788
Sharpe ratio is 16.00% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.17%
Yearly returns:
8.07%
Comparison of returns:
0.028272904
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 2.83% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
ED is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.56
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -40.38% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.82%
Monthly Volatility:
4.08%
Yearly Volatility:
8.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
35.54%
-29.21%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -29.21% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.71%
Monthly VaR:
-8.30%
How Much Can the price of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$84.41
This translates to price declining to:
-14%
This translates to price declining to:
-57.48%
Severe Crash Probability
-16.59%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
0.33%
ED is a 17.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 0.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
ED is a 17.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
0.250
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.536
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.501
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.25
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -49.88% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.128
-0.513
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -51.26% lower than peers
-0.498807399
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -21.09% below industry mean WACC
-91.49%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.708
1.513
2.040
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 204% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.260
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -25.97% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.49%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.85%
Overall debt rating:
3.04%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.85%
-21.09%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $74.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -14.44% below the industry mean
84.58%
EPS:
One Billion Five Hundred Thirty-Four Million Ninety-Seven Thousand Three Hundred Fifty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-67.73%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -8.83% below the industry mean
-
0.345170023
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.11%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -70% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -91.49% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.56
-0.221369713
119.8906228
-0.178584632
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $98.73
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$39.65
-0.144416397
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -14.44% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 84.58% above the industry average
378.60%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 378.60% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 18.05%
$0.79
Previous Dividend: $0.79
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.79
Previous Dividend: $3.13
Expected next dividend best case: $0.80
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.78
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.77
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.66%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 16/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 18/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
2022-02-15--$0.79
2021-08-17--$0.78
2022-05-17--$0.79
2021-11-16--$0.78
2021-05-18--$0.78
-1.660030917
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
122.99%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Debt to assets ratio:
39.32%
Net debt to assets ratio:
114.33%
-41.84%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.84% below industry average
0.94
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.6x
-90.62%
0.11%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
14.03358185
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.28%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.473
-20.82%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.473
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.223
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.059
Kurtosis
0.063
21.377
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.427
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
7.69B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -6.52% lower than the industry
68.98%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
7.69B
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-0.173336754
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 3.75% higher than the industry
-17.46%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 68.98% higher than the industry
3.75%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 93.63% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -17.46% lower than the industry
-0.57856607
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$65.71
-0.452324744
Current ratio is -57.86% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 34.52% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -45.23% below industry average
-0.631029585
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -63% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.700969616
Profit generated per employee:
$13.61
-73%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -73% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.148730242
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -15% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.148730242
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
$107.59
WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC. (XNYS:WEC)
Eversource Energy (XNYS:ES)
AMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:AWK)
PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INCORPORATED (XNYS:PEG)
EDISON INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:EIX)
FIRSTENERGY CORP. (XNYS:FE)
DTE ENERGY COMPANY (XNYS:DTE)
AMEREN CORPORATION (XNYS:AEE)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.33
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�29%
Sell�21%
Strong sell�4%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
14.06B
6.37B
219%
-
-
-
-
4.92B
11.30B
57.00M
968.00M
2.06B
136%
265.00M
- 1172000.00K
43%
265.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
554.00M
Differed Income Tax :
529.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
167.00M
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
- 793000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 156000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
295.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
16.00M
Investments in PP&E:
473.00M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 10000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
108.00M
-
108.00M
3.24B
404.00M
1.71B
5.46B
49.82B
439.00M
1.27B
833.00M
-
5.91B
58.28B
-
63.74B
1.31B
1.87B
77.00M
313.00M
1.92B
5.42B
23.30B
7.30B
37.70B
-
43.11B
37.00M
11.77B
5.0M
Value
4.92B
-
20.38B
63.49B
-
25.17B
-
-
- 942000.00K
- 952000.00K
- 26000.00K
-
-
- 276000.00K
- 168000.00K
- 470000.00K
-
- 949000.00K
197.00M
1.15B
473.00M
- 862000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-1.638293947
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
100.6407
$100.64
$102.33
$104.06
$105.81