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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
ECOL
Primary Facts
Waste Management
Name:
-
Sector:
28.91M
Industry:
48.01
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey R. Feeler
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
13.60601392
8.51225754
Us Ecology, Inc. (XNAS:ECOL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
US ECOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ECOL)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$48.24
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$49.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$48.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$50.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P427
This week:
$44.24
This month :
$39.59
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
31.34M
Market Cap Classification:
1.50B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A+
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-15.43%
$31.16
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.51
67.73%
$38.51
$65.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$53.21
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.52
$42.81
$54.92
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Waste Management
Sharpe Ratio:
ECOL, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.41%
-0.744492528
Sharpe ratio is -74.45% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Waste Management
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.16%
Yearly returns:
7.80%
Comparison of returns:
-0.48961715
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -48.96% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
ECOL is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.82
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -72.94% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
3.84%
Monthly Volatility:
8.58%
Yearly Volatility:
17.16%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
74.80%
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-
Weekly VaR:
-7.85%
Monthly VaR:
-17.55%
How Much Can the price of
Waste Management
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$33.29
This translates to price declining to:
-31%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-35.10%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
112.21%
ECOL is a 147.71% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 112.21% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
ECOL is a 147.71% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Waste Management
0.843
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.592
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.84
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -18.27% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-0.154
-0.359
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -35.94% lower than peers
-0.18267073
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -8.49% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-
-1.221
-0.713
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Waste Management
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -71% below the market average
-0.126
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -12.63% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
-1.63%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.58%
Overall debt rating:
2.83%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.58%
-8.49%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.03
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -37.69% below the industry mean
125.02%
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is 16.93% higher than the industry
-1268.61%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -46.23% below the industry mean
-
3.526000089
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.55%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -37% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Waste Management
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
284.52
10.40392505
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $12.91
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$31.92
-0.376867007
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -37.69% below the industry mean
-
0.169259761
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 125.02% above the industry average
-249.11%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -249.11% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
$0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.36
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/01/2020
Previous dividend record date: 17/01/2020
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 01/02/2020
2019-10-17--$0.18
--$0.00
2020-01-16--$0.18
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
113.94%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.8 years
Debt to assets ratio:
39.55%
Net debt to assets ratio:
122.34%
-31.03%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -31.03% below industry average
-0.54
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.7x
-
0.55%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
8.947805532
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.67%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.344
-38.51%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.344
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.118
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.05
Kurtosis
0.118
162.448
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
9.018
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Waste Management
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
233.62M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -104.98% lower than the industry
-51.87%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
233.62M
Effective Tax Rate:
-67.43%
24.75923398
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -103.90% lower than the industry
-103.95%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -51.87% lower than the industry
-103.90%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -54.44% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -103.95% lower than the industry
0.422662407
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$24.64
0.670374042
Current ratio is 42.27% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 352.60% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is 67.04% above industry average
-0.094194956
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.367219484
Profit generated per employee:
$4.36
-104%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -104% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0.379766437
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 38% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0.379766437
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Waste Management
$47.43
MYR GROUP INC. (XNAS:MYRG)
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MATW)
KFORCE INC. (XNAS:KFRC)
THE SHYFT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SHYF)
EHang Holdings Limited (XNAS:EH)
H&E EQUIPMENT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:HEES)
HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC. (XNAS:HURN)
HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HA)
Current Analyst Ratings
-
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.00B
766.74M
93%
-
-
205.70M
-
-
972.44M
1.37M
28.43M
102.82M
54%
8.22M
- 26612.00K
-
8.22M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 9022.00K
Differed Income Tax :
24.77M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 3467.00K
Change in Working Capital :
1.95M
Accounts Receivables:
- 2070.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 4155.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
175.21M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
9.96M
Investments in PP&E:
22.12M
Net Acquisitions:
- 16180.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
74.19M
-
74.19M
256.19M
-
30.01M
360.39M
509.93M
413.53M
482.13M
1.53M
-
51.17M
1.46B
-
1.82B
63.93M
21.14M
231.00K
19.90M
80.20M
185.18M
772.28M
106.28M
1.00B
-
1.19B
315.00K
- 192137.00K
10.5M
Value
205.70M
812.53M
631.24M
1.82B
-
793.42M
-
1.93M
438.00K
- 13810.00K
- 4302.00K
4.49M
- 12.00K
-
- 2528.00K
- 2355.00K
712.00K
6.66M
75.72M
69.05M
22.12M
6.79M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
601.5646476
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Waste Management
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
38.04735617
$38.05
$40.20
$42.48
$44.89