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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
DUK
Primary Facts
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Name:
-
Sector:
975.00M
Industry:
107
CEO:
Ms. Lynn Good
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
1.121249579
0.148962665
Duke Energy Corporation (XNYS:DUK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:DUK)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$107.21
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$108.27
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$107.37
Price Upper limit ($) :
$109.54
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P272
This week:
$103.09
This month :
$98.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
769.97M
Market Cap Classification:
82.20B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-11.5%
$89.52
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$116.79
12.3%
$97.21
$125.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$112.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$88.87
$101.71
$114.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Sharpe Ratio:
DUK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.17%
0.618515867
Sharpe ratio is 61.85% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.21%
Yearly returns:
10.31%
Comparison of returns:
0.314108653
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 31.41% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
DUK is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.66
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -16.81% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.80%
Monthly Volatility:
4.02%
Yearly Volatility:
8.05%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
35.08%
-35.17%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.17% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.65%
Monthly VaR:
-8.17%
How Much Can the price of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$92.07
This translates to price declining to:
-14%
This translates to price declining to:
-56.58%
Severe Crash Probability
-16.33%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-1.23%
DUK is a 15.29% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -1.23% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
DUK is a 15.29% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
0.353
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.718
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.509
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.35
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -29.32% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.157
-0.274
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -27.41% lower than peers
-0.293246376
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -17.07% below industry mean WACC
-95.08%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.720
2.720
3.020
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 302% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.153
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -15.27% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.48%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.31%
Overall debt rating:
2.62%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.31%
-17.07%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $76.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 8.82% above the industry mean
378.25%
EPS:
Three Billion Six Hundred Seventy-Two Million Four Hundred Eighteen Thousand Two Hundred Thirty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-86.03%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -10.29% below the industry mean
-
-18.0414318
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -68% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -95.08% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.58
-0.220697951
132.0735036
-0.189845071
$11.94
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $98.87
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$33.87
0.088223267
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 8.82% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 378.25% above the industry average
-1286.85%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -1286.85% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
$0.99
Previous Dividend: $0.99
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.99
Previous Dividend: $3.94
Expected next dividend best case: $1.00
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.97
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.97
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.42%
Expected next dividend payment date: 14/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/05/2022
2022-02-17--$0.99
2021-08-12--$0.99
2022-05-12--$0.99
2021-11-10--$0.99
2021-05-13--$0.97
-1.420019675
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
140.67%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Debt to assets ratio:
40.62%
Net debt to assets ratio:
127.95%
-41.21%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.21% below industry average
0.72
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.6x
-85.94%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
20.82848218
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.26%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.623
4.33%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.623
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.388
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.036
Kurtosis
0.037
12.387
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.222
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
13.90B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 23.06% higher than the industry
71.45%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
13.90B
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-0.868314659
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -5.69% lower than the industry
-16.93%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 71.45% higher than the industry
-5.69%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 72.16% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -16.93% lower than the industry
-0.700912107
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$82.16
-2.573904373
Current ratio is -70.09% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -1804.14% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -257.39% below industry average
-0.656087415
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -66% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.678158134
Profit generated per employee:
$13.43
-67%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -67% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-2.072117141
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -207% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-2.072117141
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
$135.20
THE SOUTHERN COMPANY (XNYS:SO)
DUK-PA
Dominion Energy, Inc. (XNYS:D)
NATIONAL GRID PLC (XNYS:NGG)
AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:AEP)
SEMPRA ENERGY (XNYS:SRE)
PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INCORPORATED (XNYS:PEG)
AMERICAN WATER WORKS COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:AWK)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.77
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�50%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
26.08B
12.18B
211%
-
-
-
-
10.66B
22.83B
-
2.33B
4.18B
161%
94.00M
- 1657000.00K
54%
94.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
820.00M
Differed Income Tax :
81.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 51000.00K
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
155.00M
Other Working Capital:
88.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 30000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
975.00M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
853.00M
-
853.00M
1.15B
3.17B
5.87B
11.04B
113.57B
19.30B
-
976.00M
-
26.33B
160.18B
-
171.22B
3.18B
7.15B
-
-
5.10B
15.43B
63.26B
-
72.94B
179.29B
121.77B
1.00M
3.32B
- 204000.0K
Value
10.66B
46.33B
49.45B
171.22B
-
70.41B
-
-
- 2699000.00K
- 2699000.00K
-
-
-
-
1.40B
1.40B
-
500.00M
1.02B
520.00M
975.00M
- 210000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
5.456672288
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
123.0920989
$123.09
$126.01
$129.00
$132.06