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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
DLTR
Primary Facts
Discount Stores
Name:
-
Sector:
- 13000.00K
Industry:
136.58
CEO:
Mr. Gary Philbin
Total Employees:
Large Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.169652661
4.270330615
Dollar Tree, Inc. (XNAS:DLTR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
DOLLAR TREE, INC. (XNAS:DLTR)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$137.14
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$139.95
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$137.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$143.31
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P225
This week:
$129.18
This month :
$120.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
223.94M
Market Cap Classification:
30.97B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-15.92%
$103.51
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$155.00
21.87%
$118.16
$170.88
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$146.44
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$102.28
$126.72
$149.83
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Discount Stores
Sharpe Ratio:
DLTR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.32%
0.367621004
Sharpe ratio is 36.76% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Discount Stores
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.47%
Yearly returns:
22.53%
Comparison of returns:
0.687893816
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 68.79% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
DLTR is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.42
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 39.10% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.68%
Monthly Volatility:
6.00%
Yearly Volatility:
12.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
52.29%
-52.92%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -52.92% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.41%
Monthly VaR:
-12.11%
How Much Can the price of
Discount Stores
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$108.80
This translates to price declining to:
-20%
This translates to price declining to:
-83.89%
Severe Crash Probability
-24.22%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
46.42%
DLTR is a 70.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 46.42% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
DLTR is a 70.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Discount Stores
0.733
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.579
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.626
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.73
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 4.59% above industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.383
0.027
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is 2.74% higher than peers
0.04594914
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -15.61% below industry mean WACC
-2.26%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.885
1.660
9.142
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Discount Stores
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 914% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
0.028
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 2.77% above industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.27%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.84%
Overall debt rating:
1.46%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.84%
-15.61%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 11.77% above the industry mean
-56.86%
EPS:
One Billion Four Hundred Sixty-Eight Million Five Hundred Ninety-Six Thousand Two Hundred Forty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -25.91% below the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 40% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Discount Stores
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -2.26% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.76
-0.148389723
151.7114241
-0.099738199
$1.19
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$117.54
0.117684753
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 11.77% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -56.86% below industry average
-143.70%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -143.70% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
110.76%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.2 years
Debt to assets ratio:
38.99%
Net debt to assets ratio:
112.36%
-39.50%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -39.50% below industry average
-0.95
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.7x
-100.10%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
12.64622091
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.36%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.435
-11.73%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.435
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.189
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
0.038
16.443
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.861
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Discount Stores
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
7.74B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -1.19% lower than the industry
34.81%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
7.74B
Effective Tax Rate:
1.02%
-0.296501452
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -18.83% lower than the industry
-25.85%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 34.81% higher than the industry
-18.83%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -95.02% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -25.85% lower than the industry
0.037780104
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$37.18
-1.315632825
Current ratio is 3.78% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -131.56% below industry average
0.140454191
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 14% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.395499191
Profit generated per employee:
$10.44
39%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 39% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.19613468
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -120% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.19613468
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Discount Stores
$193.49
THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY (XNAS:KHC)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCM)
MONSTER BEVERAGE CORPORATION (XNAS:MNST)
CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC. (XNAS:CASY)
Innovator Lddrd Alloc PB (BATS:BUFF)
PILGRIM'S PRIDE CORPORATION (XNAS:PPC)
COCA-COLA CONSOLIDATED, INC. (XNAS:COKE)
HELEN OF TROY LIMITED (XNAS:HELE)
Current Analyst Ratings
$6.54
Strong buy�33%
Buy�29%
Hold�46%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/30/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
26.32B
18.58B
117%
-
-
5.93B
-
-
24.51B
-
178.40M
527.30M
36%
304.30M
- 179400.00K
25%
304.30M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
216.80M
Differed Income Tax :
178.50M
Stock Based Compensation :
67.70M
Change in Working Capital :
13.50M
Accounts Receivables:
- 198100.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
4.20M
Investments in PP&E:
282.60M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
5/1/2021
2022
Q1
1.47B
-
1.47B
-
3.60B
226.40M
5.30B
10.54B
1.99B
3.10B
-
24.40M
96.90M
15.75B
-
21.05B
1.52B
1.36B
169.50M
-
1.03B
3.90B
8.33B
374.50M
9.74B
-
13.64B
-
-
-
Value
5.93B
-
7.41B
21.05B
-
9.68B
-
-
- 294800.00K
- 294800.00K
-
-
- 2500.00K
-
1.70M
- 800.00K
100.00K
- 12900.00K
754.80M
767.70M
282.60M
- 295600.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
49.93104747
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Discount Stores
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
159.6208328
$159.62
$167.49
$175.74
$184.40