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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
CSWI
Primary Facts
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Name:
-
Sector:
17.85M
Industry:
126.48
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Armes
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
1.126362778
-0.06685816
Csw Industrials, Inc. (XNAS:CSWI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
CSW INDUSTRIALS, INC. (XNAS:CSWI)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$127.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$129.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$127.11
Price Upper limit ($) :
$133.4
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P421
This week:
$120.5
This month :
$113.11
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
15.43M
Market Cap Classification:
1.96B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-15.67%
$99.75
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$141.30
15.79%
$111.66
$154.19
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$134.35
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$98.77
$118.61
$137.11
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Sharpe Ratio:
CSWI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.89%
1.096907133
Sharpe ratio is 109.69% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.51%
Yearly returns:
24.54%
Comparison of returns:
0.51029402
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 51.03% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
CSWI is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.32
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 74.31% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.35%
Monthly Volatility:
5.26%
Yearly Volatility:
10.51%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
45.83%
-60.43%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -60.43% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.73%
Monthly VaR:
-10.57%
How Much Can the price of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$104.33
This translates to price declining to:
-18%
This translates to price declining to:
-73.21%
Severe Crash Probability
-21.13%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
27.79%
CSWI is a 49.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 27.79% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
CSWI is a 49.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
0.815
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.839
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.678
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.81
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -36.42% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.585
-0.341
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -34.08% lower than peers
-0.364239585
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -81.98% below industry mean WACC
-28.63%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.959
2.659
10.064
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 1006% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.268
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -26.80% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.26%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.36%
Overall debt rating:
1.86%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.36%
-81.98%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.10
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -24.93% below the industry mean
66.05%
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
101.52%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 44.79% above the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.12%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -93% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -28.63% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.36
-0.042070788
-8.5293839
-15.8287381
$3.33
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $23.92
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$40.61
-0.249330032
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -24.93% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 66.05% above the industry average
-33789.30%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -33789.30% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 3.55%
$0.17
Previous Dividend: $0.17
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.17
Previous Dividend: $0.62
Expected next dividend best case: $0.18
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.16
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.14
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.44%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 29/04/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/04/2022
2022-01-28--$0.15
2021-07-28--$0.15
2022-04-28--$0.17
2021-10-28--$0.15
2021-04-29--$0.15
-0.300252553
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
49.99%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.8 years
Debt to assets ratio:
23.83%
Net debt to assets ratio:
53.50%
-52.73%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.73% below industry average
0.25
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
2714.90%
9.12%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
14.93764415
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.30%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.496
-21.89%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.496
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.246
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.024
Kurtosis
-0.032
8.950
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.351
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
255.96M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -143.76% lower than the industry
-164.19%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
255.96M
Effective Tax Rate:
2.84%
0.41266056
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 56.43% higher than the industry
358.28%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -164.19% lower than the industry
56.43%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 24.92% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 358.28% higher than the industry
-0.124217536
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$14.95
-0.219639056
Current ratio is -12.42% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -21.96% below industry average
-0.932985922
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -93% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.92535906
Profit generated per employee:
$8.61
-93%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -93% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.854728843
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -85% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.854728843
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
$138.46
HEADHUNTER GROUP PLC (XNAS:HHR)
ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:AAWW)
HWCPL
MCGRATH RENTCORP (XNAS:MGRC)
STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP. (XNAS:SBLK)
ARCBEST CORPORATION (XNAS:ARCB)
PATRICK INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:PATK)
SUN COUNTRY AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SNCY)
Current Analyst Ratings
-$0.31
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
626.44M
370.47M
163%
-
-
158.58M
-
-
529.06M
-
5.45M
36.89M
84%
24.14M
- 5916.00K
57%
24.14M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.05M
Differed Income Tax :
12.29M
Stock Based Compensation :
81.00K
Change in Working Capital :
1.89M
Accounts Receivables:
- 16183.00K
Other Working Capital:
10.87M
Other Non-Cash Items:
226.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
801.00K
Investments in PP&E:
18.93M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
1.38M
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
6/30/2021
2022
Q1
15.68M
-
15.68M
111.94M
105.01M
10.05M
242.67M
80.66M
218.93M
286.06M
-
-
75.92M
661.57M
-
904.24M
43.23M
561.00K
-
-
47.94M
91.73M
230.64M
150.76M
381.40M
-
473.12M
161.00K
364.91M
- 5609.0K
Value
158.58M
71.66M
431.12M
904.24M
-
231.20M
-
-
- 1071.00K
304.00K
- 23140.00K
-
- 3168.00K
- 2358.00K
14.97M
- 13701.00K
57.00K
5.59M
15.68M
10.09M
18.93M
- 1079.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-2.119097295
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Specialty Industrial Machinery
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
111.8736636
$111.87
$118.00
$124.46
$131.27