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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
COLD
Primary Facts
REIT�Industrial
Name:
-
Sector:
- 77434.00K
Industry:
28.99
CEO:
Mr. Fred Boehler
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.931428662
0.264494971
Americold Realty Trust, Inc. (XNYS:COLD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:COLD)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$29.05
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.32
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.65
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P341
This week:
$27.69
This month :
$26.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
269.37M
Market Cap Classification:
7.87B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-19.15%
$23.16
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.29
18.19%
$25.69
$35.04
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.94
$27.17
$31.40
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
REIT�Industrial
Sharpe Ratio:
COLD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.42%
-1.234302583
Sharpe ratio is -123.43% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
REIT�Industrial
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
-0.02%
Yearly returns:
-0.85%
Comparison of returns:
-1.060729783
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -106.07% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
COLD is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.75
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -124.89% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.19%
Monthly Volatility:
4.89%
Yearly Volatility:
9.78%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
42.64%
-72.22%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.22% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.50%
Monthly VaR:
-10.05%
How Much Can the price of
REIT�Industrial
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$23.82
This translates to price declining to:
-18%
This translates to price declining to:
-69.64%
Severe Crash Probability
-20.10%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
21.56%
COLD is a 41.89% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 21.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
COLD is a 41.89% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
REIT�Industrial
0.341
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.698
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.576
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.34
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -53.63% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.16
-0.653
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -65.32% lower than peers
-0.536311393
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -33.00% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.815
-2.078
-4.035
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
REIT�Industrial
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -404% below the market average
-0.330
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -32.99% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.57%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.61%
Overall debt rating:
1.27%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.61%
-33.00%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $19.72
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -79.07% below the industry mean
-153.38%
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -36.96% below the industry mean
-
-9.135594095
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.27%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -99% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
REIT�Industrial
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
0
-8.751805486
-4.31245936
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $38.79
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$10.34
-0.790670193
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -79.07% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -153.38% below industry average
-835.00%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -835.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: -114.13%
$0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.88
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.98%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-03-30--$0.22
2021-09-29--$0.22
2022-06-29--$0.22
2021-12-30--$0.22
2021-06-29--$0.22
-1.106600373
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
86.97%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Debt to assets ratio:
41.97%
Net debt to assets ratio:
75.29%
-78.43%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -78.43% below industry average
-111.94
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.6x
-1008.27%
0.27%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
18.84199355
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.37%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.584
-5.29%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.584
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.341
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.02
Kurtosis
-0.025
17.619
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.045
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
REIT�Industrial
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
630.72M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -105.86% lower than the industry
-92.56%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
630.72M
Effective Tax Rate:
-15.41%
-98.3821586
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -116.49% lower than the industry
-115.96%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -92.56% lower than the industry
-116.49%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -11194.18% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -115.96% lower than the industry
-0.849849206
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$11.07
1.804502563
Current ratio is -84.98% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -913.56% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is 180.45% above industry average
-0.895950082
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -90% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.986215996
Profit generated per employee:
$1.17
-100%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -100% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.024672957
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -102% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.024672957
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
REIT�Industrial
$27.53
KILROY REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KRC)
KIM-PL
Apartment Income REIT Corp. (XNYS:AIRC)
NATIONAL RETAIL PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:NNN)
KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KIM)
FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:FR)
EASTGROUP PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:EGP)
STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC. (XNYS:STAG)
Current Analyst Ratings
-$0.13
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.79B
2.15B
91%
-
57.60M
194.63M
-
900.93M
3.25B
282.00K
56.32M
292.97M
46%
17.57M
- 101630.00K
-5%
17.57M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 17445.00K
Differed Income Tax :
83.13M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 1889.00K
Change in Working Capital :
8.09M
Accounts Receivables:
- 61655.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
15.91M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.35M
Investments in PP&E:
15.59M
Net Acquisitions:
- 93020.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 1322.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
50.97M
-
50.97M
419.35M
-
-
470.31M
308.35M
1.07B
968.10M
43.53M
-
5.35B
7.74B
-
8.21B
-
513.82M
-
28.35M
535.62M
1.08B
2.98B
11.15M
3.16B
-
4.24B
2.69M
- 1234875.00K
15.9M
Value
1.10B
-
3.96B
8.20B
-
3.50B
-
-
98.00K
- 94244.00K
- 8138.00K
-
-
- 59940.00K
114.33M
46.26M
409.00K
- 31993.00K
50.97M
82.96M
15.59M
- 93020.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-26.03227254
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
REIT�Industrial
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
25.14682975
$25.15
$25.72
$26.31
$26.91