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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
CNXN
Primary Facts
Electronics & Computer Distribution
Name:
-
Sector:
- 40736.00K
Industry:
47.95
CEO:
Mr. Timothy McGrath
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.291513116
-7.417957917
Pc Connection, Inc. (XNAS:CNXN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
PC CONNECTION, INC. (XNAS:CNXN)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$48.12
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$48.95
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$48.18
Price Upper limit ($) :
$49.94
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P173
This week:
$45.38
This month :
$42.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
26.27M
Market Cap Classification:
1.25B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-25.13%
$36.46
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$54.42
15.88%
$41.48
$59.88
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$51.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.02
$44.42
$52.65
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Electronics & Computer Distribution
Sharpe Ratio:
CNXN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.09%
-0.223818032
Sharpe ratio is -22.38% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Electronics & Computer Distribution
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.15%
Yearly returns:
7.44%
Comparison of returns:
-0.140089616
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -14.01% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
CNXN is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.65
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -62.98% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.62%
Monthly Volatility:
5.87%
Yearly Volatility:
11.74%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
51.16%
-39.11%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -39.11% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.36%
Monthly VaR:
-11.98%
How Much Can the price of
Electronics & Computer Distribution
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$37.96
This translates to price declining to:
-21%
This translates to price declining to:
-83.02%
Severe Crash Probability
-23.97%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
44.91%
CNXN is a 69.15% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 44.91% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
CNXN is a 69.15% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Electronics & Computer Distribution
0.619
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.476
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.58
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.62
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -47.87% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.615
-0.553
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -55.31% lower than peers
-0.478703918
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-45.56%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.821
-1.019
0.031
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Electronics & Computer Distribution
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 3% compared to market & is healthy
-0.345
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -34.51% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.34%
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -17.77% below the industry mean
-60.12%
EPS:
Eighty-One Million One Hundred Sixty-Five Thousand Thirty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-138.52%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 23.29% above the industry mean
-
3.745168805
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 18.56%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -25% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Electronics & Computer Distribution
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -45.56% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.12
0.163656831
37.50040117
0.278652988
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$115.86
-0.1776823
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -17.77% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -60.12% below industry average
-122.92%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -122.92% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
$1.00
Previous Dividend: $1.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.00
Previous Dividend: $1.64
Expected next dividend best case: $2.58
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.58
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.55
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 106.25%
Expected next dividend payment date: 03/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 16/02/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 02/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 12/03/2021
Previous dividend record date: 18/11/2021
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 11/04/2021
2021-01-11--$0.32
--$0.00
2021-11-17--$1.00
2019-12-26--$0.32
--$0.00
0.704967013
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-8.69%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 15.3 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-5.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.86%
-98.99%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.99% below industry average
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.0x
180.54%
18.56%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
9.87697527
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.41%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.353
-35.86%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.353
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.125
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.002
Kurtosis
-0.003
18.829
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-1.605
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Electronics & Computer Distribution
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
492.37M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 81.01% higher than the industry
149.89%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
492.37M
Effective Tax Rate:
1.70%
0.782644275
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 87.62% higher than the industry
19.03%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 149.89% higher than the industry
87.62%
Financial Leverage:
-
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 19.03% higher than the industry
0.288701049
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$0.23
-0.371048429
Current ratio is 28.87% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 374.52% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -37.10% below industry average
-0.156264386
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -16% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.252421678
Profit generated per employee:
$4.74
-21%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -21% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0.26842082
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 27% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0.26842082
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Electronics & Computer Distribution
$251.87
AGILYSYS, INC. (XNAS:AGYS)
IMPINJ, INC. (XNAS:PI)
OPERA LIMITED (XNAS:OPRA)
GREENSKY, INC. (XNAS:GSKY)
LORL
ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNAS:IMOS)
RADWARE LTD. (XNAS:RDWR)
CEVA, INC (XNAS:CEVA)
Current Analyst Ratings
$3.09
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.04B
2.55B
65%
-
263.20M
370.93M
12.00M
9.00M
2.93B
-
-
12.03M
16%
31.03M
9.00K
15%
31.03M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
21.79M
Differed Income Tax :
2.99M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
1.38M
Accounts Receivables:
- 65027.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 10494.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
577.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 38285.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 2451.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
67.41M
-
67.41M
634.14M
234.60M
14.59M
950.74M
70.04M
73.60M
5.56M
-
-
878.00K
150.08M
-
1.10B
271.41M
-
-
-
98.39M
369.80M
6.08M
179.00K
25.53M
-
395.34M
290.00K
627.56M
-
Value
379.93M
-
705.48M
1.10B
-
6.08M
-
-
-
- 2451.00K
- 1385.00K
-
-
-
1.22M
- 165.00K
-
- 40901.00K
67.41M
108.31M
- 38285.00K
- 2451.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-79.55933336
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Electronics & Computer Distribution
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
213.9799301
$50.19
$222.88
$232.15
$241.81