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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
CMS
Primary Facts
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Name:
-
Sector:
187.00M
Industry:
67.14
CEO:
Ms. Patricia Poppe
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.850837759
-0.128132721
Cms Energy Corporation (XNYS:CMS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
CMS ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:CMS)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$67.25
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$67.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$67.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$68.41
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P146
This week:
$64.73
This month :
$61.76
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
290.20M
Market Cap Classification:
19.55B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-12.29%
$56.37
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$73.19
13.82%
$61.09
$78.32
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$70.43
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.96
$63.85
$71.53
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Sharpe Ratio:
CMS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.17%
-0.052581361
Sharpe ratio is -5.26% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.14%
Yearly returns:
6.81%
Comparison of returns:
-0.13182993
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -13.18% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
CMS is a comparatively less risky than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.81
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -51.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.76%
Monthly Volatility:
3.94%
Yearly Volatility:
7.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
34.31%
-32.25%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -32.25% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.59%
Monthly VaR:
-8.02%
How Much Can the price of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$57.83
This translates to price declining to:
-14%
This translates to price declining to:
-55.57%
Severe Crash Probability
-16.04%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
-3.01%
CMS is a 13.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -3.01% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
CMS is a 13.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
0.282
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.606
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.418
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.28
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -43.50% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.163
-0.450
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -45.00% lower than peers
-0.434957383
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -19.23% below industry mean WACC
219.20%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.591
0.356
1.101
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 110% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.226
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -22.65% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.93%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.00%
Overall debt rating:
2.37%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.00%
-19.23%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $57.29
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -12.72% below the industry mean
-438.98%
EPS:
One Billion Three Hundred Fifty-Two Million One Thousand One Hundred Forty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -67.74% lower than the industry
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 7.04% above the industry mean
-
2.762162304
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -72% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 219.20% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.19
-0.018158007
129.0277834
-0.479646955
$5.55
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $101.46
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$26.50
-0.127233925
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -12.72% below the industry mean
-
-0.677445375
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -438.98% below industry average
-3413.63%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -3413.63% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 10.07%
$0.46
Previous Dividend: $0.46
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.46
Previous Dividend: $1.79
Expected next dividend best case: $0.48
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.44
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.42
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.90%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 21/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 22/04/2022
2022-02-10--$0.46
2021-08-05--$0.44
2022-05-05--$0.46
2021-11-04--$0.44
2021-05-06--$0.44
-2.900089005
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
85.84%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
31.03%
Net debt to assets ratio:
82.14%
-52.76%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.76% below industry average
3.32
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.4x
-199.56%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
17.64611478
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.27%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.559
-6.33%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.559
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.313
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.04
Kurtosis
0.041
11.805
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.022
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
2.44B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 50.89% higher than the industry
30.99%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
2.44B
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-0.464370344
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 115.33% higher than the industry
51.52%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 30.99% higher than the industry
115.33%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 331.99% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 51.52% higher than the industry
-0.52814892
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$27.74
-1.08820551
Current ratio is -52.81% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 276.22% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -108.82% below industry average
-0.670808984
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -67% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.715595401
Profit generated per employee:
$9.70
-61%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -61% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.667488412
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -167% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.667488412
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
$104.26
Avangrid, Inc. (XNYS:AGR)
BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTUR PARTNER UNT (XNYS:BIP)
DUKH
Fortis Inc. (XNYS:FTS)
Evergy, Inc. (XNYS:EVRG)
THE AES CORPORATION (XNYS:AES)
ENTERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:ETR)
PPL CORPORATION (XNYS:PPL)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.66
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.69B
5.25B
122%
-
-
-
-
4.41B
7.87B
2.00M
253.00M
1.12B
147%
92.00M
- 319000.00K
43%
92.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
351.00M
Differed Income Tax :
345.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
33.00M
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
- 16000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 129000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 6000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
707.00M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
12.00M
-
12.00M
1.01B
169.00M
755.00M
1.95B
21.50B
-
-
-
287.00M
3.38B
25.17B
-
27.11B
647.00M
374.00M
-
-
703.00M
1.72B
8.05B
5.04B
15.55B
31.14B
17.31B
10.64B
1.94B
- 31000.0K
Value
4.41B
-
9.80B
27.11B
-
8.43B
-
-
- 539000.00K
- 539000.00K
-
4.00M
-
- 136000.00K
- 38000.00K
- 170000.00K
-
- 2000.00K
474.00M
476.00M
707.00M
- 520000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-4.615699777
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Utilities�Regulated Electric
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
96.70626271
$68.75
$98.54
$100.41
$102.32