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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
CENTA
Primary Facts
Packaged Foods
Name:
-
Sector:
- 116668.00K
Industry:
36.29
CEO:
Mr. Timothy P. Cofer
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.463246655
-1.260064698
Central Garden & Pet Company (XNAS:CENTA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENTA)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$36.4
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$36.98
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$36.45
Price Upper limit ($) :
$37.67
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P240
This week:
$34.72
This month :
$32.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
55.99M
Market Cap Classification:
2.06B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-20.32%
$29.25
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.22
11.65%
$32.36
$43.59
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$38.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.99
$34.18
$39.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Packaged Foods
Sharpe Ratio:
CENTA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.31%
0.966241747
Sharpe ratio is 96.62% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Packaged Foods
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.32%
Yearly returns:
15.38%
Comparison of returns:
0.827026926
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 82.70% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
CENTA is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.84
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 13.05% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.14%
Monthly Volatility:
4.79%
Yearly Volatility:
9.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
41.79%
-47.19%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -47.19% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.34%
Monthly VaR:
-9.70%
How Much Can the price of
Packaged Foods
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$30.33
This translates to price declining to:
-16%
This translates to price declining to:
-67.21%
Severe Crash Probability
-19.40%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
17.32%
CENTA is a 36.94% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.32% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
CENTA is a 36.94% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Packaged Foods
0.565
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.595
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.525
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.57
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -3.52% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.308
-0.343
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -34.27% lower than peers
-0.035183979
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -4.66% below industry mean WACC
41.26%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.742
5.659
5.321
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Packaged Foods
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 532% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.020
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -1.97% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.82%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.16%
Overall debt rating:
3.29%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.16%
-4.66%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -74.17% below the industry mean
21.20%
EPS:
One Hundred Fifteen Million Eight Hundred Fifty-Seven Thousand Five Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -34.79% lower than the industry
9.57%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -65.27% below the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.06%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -55% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Packaged Foods
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 41.26% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.03
-0.636974726
106.2607835
-0.65848172
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$60.58
-0.741698042
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -74.17% below the industry mean
-
-0.347907868
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 21.20% above the industry average
65.20%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 65.20% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
86.68%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Debt to assets ratio:
34.14%
Net debt to assets ratio:
107.25%
-21.62%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -21.62% below industry average
-0.98
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.7x
-76.09%
0.06%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
16.58969636
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.30%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.535
24.77%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.535
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.287
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.038
Kurtosis
-0.048
13.038
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.805
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Packaged Foods
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
1.02B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -7.22% lower than the industry
56.30%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
1.02B
Effective Tax Rate:
3.41%
-0.46204159
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 9.09% higher than the industry
11.96%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 56.30% higher than the industry
9.09%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -97.62% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 11.96% higher than the industry
0.087737474
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$23.53
-0.357129757
Current ratio is 8.77% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -35.71% below industry average
-0.337068574
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.545834731
Profit generated per employee:
$5.95
-55%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -55% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
3.822823508
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 382% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
3.822823508
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Packaged Foods
$119.19
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENT)
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (XNAS:SFM)
J & J SNACK FOODS CORP. (XNAS:JJSF)
2U, INC. (XNAS:TWOU)
LAUREATE EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LAUR)
PRICESMART, INC. (XNAS:PSMT)
COCA-COLA CONSOLIDATED, INC. (XNAS:COKE)
CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CELH)
Current Analyst Ratings
$2.75
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.39B
2.37B
120%
-
-
762.16M
-
-
3.14B
241.00K
56.61M
81.41M
37%
42.98M
- 59912.00K
20%
42.98M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.01M
Differed Income Tax :
20.20M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.74M
Change in Working Capital :
5.19M
Accounts Receivables:
- 141924.00K
Other Working Capital:
1.15M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
12.33M
Investments in PP&E:
- 92458.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 24210.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
12/25/2021
2022
Q1
296.04M
-
296.04M
343.66M
844.90M
47.13M
1.53B
509.84M
369.39M
130.20M
-
-
576.90M
1.59B
-
3.12B
244.83M
43.46M
-
-
225.06M
513.35M
1.32B
-
1.38B
-
1.89B
551.00K
650.03M
- 1273.0K
Value
762.16M
578.93M
1.23B
3.12B
-
1.36B
- 1918.00K
-
-
- 26128.00K
- 767.00K
-
- 7775.00K
-
- 3048.00K
- 11590.00K
- 395.00K
- 130571.00K
308.95M
439.52M
- 92458.00K
- 24210.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-8.864709592
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Packaged Foods
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
102.6741669
$37.86
$106.57
$110.62
$114.83