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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
CDK
Primary Facts
Software�Application
Name:
-
Sector:
42.10M
Industry:
54.84
CEO:
Mr. Brian Krzanich
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.786594945
-1.075944848
Cdk Global, Inc. (XNAS:CDK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
CDK GLOBAL, INC. (XNAS:CDK)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$55.13
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$56.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$55.05
Price Upper limit ($) :
$58.35
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P256
This week:
$52.52
This month :
$49.65
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
116.70M
Market Cap Classification:
6.39B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-14.83%
$44.47
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.68
11.25%
$49.00
$65.60
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$58.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.08
$51.65
$59.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Software�Application
Sharpe Ratio:
CDK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.96%
-0.189219435
Sharpe ratio is -18.92% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Software�Application
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.13%
Yearly returns:
6.01%
Comparison of returns:
-0.395379738
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -39.54% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
CDK is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.31
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -65.71% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.07%
Monthly Volatility:
4.63%
Yearly Volatility:
9.26%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
40.37%
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-
Weekly VaR:
-4.23%
Monthly VaR:
-9.46%
How Much Can the price of
Software�Application
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$45.83
This translates to price declining to:
-16%
This translates to price declining to:
-65.51%
Severe Crash Probability
-18.91%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
14.34%
CDK is a 33.47% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 14.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
CDK is a 33.47% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Software�Application
0.954
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.636
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -28.59% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.269
-0.318
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -31.83% lower than peers
-0.285883492
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -27.99% below industry mean WACC
603.91%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-
0.556
-2.339
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Software�Application
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -234% below the market average
-0.213
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -21.27% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.73%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.62%
Overall debt rating:
4.44%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.62%
-27.99%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -68.24% below the industry mean
-114.90%
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -49.17% lower than the industry
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 71.20% above the industry mean
-
-0.00048873
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.09%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 695% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Software�Application
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 603.91% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.98
-0.84246072
-
-
$1,760,137.06
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $14.44
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$15.05
-0.682364304
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -68.24% below the industry mean
-
-0.491664974
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -114.90% below industry average
-17.03%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -17.03% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 7.21%
$0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.60
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.15
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 19/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/06/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-02-28--$0.15
2021-08-31--$0.15
2022-06-16--$0.15
2021-11-30--$0.15
2021-06-18--$0.15
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
337.53%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.4 years
Debt to assets ratio:
57.31%
Net debt to assets ratio:
354.51%
9.70%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is 9.70% above industry average
-0.88
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.5x
-104.32%
0.09%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
13.51921241
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.34%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.471
-6.30%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.471
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.222
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.027
Kurtosis
0.034
8.788
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.314
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Software�Application
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
837.40M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -174.55% lower than the industry
-232.22%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
837.40M
Effective Tax Rate:
4.50%
0.070714839
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -347.91% lower than the industry
-528.78%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -232.22% lower than the industry
-347.91%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -88.31% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -528.78% lower than the industry
-0.525098237
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$13.59
-0.576174592
Current ratio is -52.51% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -0.05% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -57.62% below industry average
-0.218516499
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
6.950275176
Profit generated per employee:
$4.76
-321%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -321% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.833807581
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -183% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.833807581
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Software�Application
$56.11
CIRRUS LOGIC, INC. (XNAS:CRUS)
SITIME CORPORATION (XNAS:SITM)
MACOM TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MTSI)
DIGITAL TURBINE, INC. (XNAS:APPS)
VICOR CORPORATION (XNAS:VICR)
NCINO, INC. (XNAS:NCNO)
POWER INTEGRATIONS, INC. (XNAS:POWI)
QUALYS, INC. (XNAS:QLYS)
Current Analyst Ratings
-
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.76B
919.10M
191%
-
-
392.40M
-
-
1.31B
-
89.40M
119.30M
126%
95.80M
- 105800.00K
77%
95.80M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
71.70M
Differed Income Tax :
27.60M
Stock Based Compensation :
300.00K
Change in Working Capital :
11.30M
Accounts Receivables:
- 41100.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 5500.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.70M
Investments in PP&E:
71.50M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 2100.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
9/30/2021
2022
Q1
80.80M
-
80.80M
234.80M
-
161.10M
476.70M
66.40M
1.30B
337.10M
-
-
458.30M
2.16B
-
2.64B
23.60M
4.80M
-
29.60M
277.10M
335.10M
1.59B
101.30M
1.84B
-
2.17B
1.60M
2.05B
70.6M
Value
392.40M
- 1675400.00K
447.40M
2.62B
-
1.59B
-
-
- 29400.00K
- 31500.00K
- 1400.00K
-
- 88300.00K
- 18100.00K
- 9900.00K
- 117700.00K
- 500.00K
- 78200.00K
99.00M
177.20M
71.50M
- 29400.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-225.472166
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Software�Application
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
43.76365525
$43.76
$46.57
$49.55
$52.73