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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
CCOI
Primary Facts
Telecom Services
Name:
-
Sector:
31.29M
Industry:
53.47
CEO:
Mr. David Schaeffer
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.525490272
-0.575673024
Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:CCOI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CCOI)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$53.58
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$54.1
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$53.68
Price Upper limit ($) :
$54.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P155
This week:
$50.96
This month :
$47.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
48.01M
Market Cap Classification:
2.60B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A+
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-10.66%
$42.26
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$59.81
15.52%
$47.13
$65.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$56.96
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.83
$49.98
$58.09
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Telecom Services
Sharpe Ratio:
CCOI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.97%
-1.148812452
Sharpe ratio is -114.88% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Telecom Services
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.03%
Yearly returns:
1.33%
Comparison of returns:
-0.925178555
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -92.52% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
CCOI is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.62
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -106.35% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.29%
Monthly Volatility:
5.11%
Yearly Volatility:
10.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
44.56%
-31.93%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -31.93% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.69%
Monthly VaR:
-10.48%
How Much Can the price of
Telecom Services
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$43.59
This translates to price declining to:
-18%
This translates to price declining to:
-72.64%
Severe Crash Probability
-20.97%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
26.79%
CCOI is a 48.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 26.79% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
CCOI is a 48.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Telecom Services
0.351
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.549
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.452
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.35
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -57.07% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-0.372
-0.690
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -69.02% lower than peers
-0.570741555
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -2.91% below industry mean WACC
276.18%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.639
-1.469
-2.691
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Telecom Services
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -269% below the market average
-0.365
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -36.55% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
-5.88%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.92%
Overall debt rating:
5.47%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.92%
-2.91%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $150.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -30.69% below the industry mean
-97.30%
EPS:
Thirty-One Million One Hundred Fifty-Seven Thousand Seven Hundred Fifty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-68.12%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -570.32% below the industry mean
-
-4.128376208
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.48%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -35% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Telecom Services
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 276.18% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
56.6
0.918195609
19.18029623
1.787756736
$2.11
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $252.62
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$12.33
-0.306903995
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -30.69% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -97.30% below industry average
-84.28%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -84.28% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 135.53%
$0.88
Previous Dividend: $0.88
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.88
Previous Dividend: $3.37
Expected next dividend best case: $0.95
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.81
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.76
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.24%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 28/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 29/04/2022
2022-03-08--$0.86
2021-08-19--$0.81
2022-05-12--$0.88
2021-11-18--$0.83
2021-05-13--$0.78
-1.971845227
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-237.74%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.5 years
Debt to assets ratio:
100.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-299.46%
65.05%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is 65.05% above industry average
0.64
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.8x
-99.88%
0.48%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
10.64161551
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.38%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.377
-18.30%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.377
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.142
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.02
Kurtosis
-0.026
5.756
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.575
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Telecom Services
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
365.50M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 64.40% higher than the industry
556.78%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
365.50M
Effective Tax Rate:
19.87%
0.085178167
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -1824.07% lower than the industry
94.20%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 556.78% higher than the industry
-1824.07%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 64.26% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 94.20% higher than the industry
1.671746847
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$25.48
-0.995168482
Current ratio is 167.17% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -412.84% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -99.52% below industry average
-0.41204346
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.352630609
Profit generated per employee:
$4.66
-71%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -71% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.457613751
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -46% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.457613751
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Telecom Services
$145.78
iQIYI, Inc. (XNAS:IQ)
VEON Ltd. (XNAS:VEON)
INTEGRAL AD SCIENCE HOLDING CORP. (XNAS:IAS)
Millicom International Cellular SA (XNAS:TIGO)
LEGALZOOM.COM, INC. (XNAS:LZ)
CARGURUS, INC. (XNAS:CARG)
JOYY INC. (XNAS:YY)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILAK)
Current Analyst Ratings
$0.65
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�38%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�4%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
592.19M
226.69M
247%
-
-
161.57M
-
89.96M
478.22M
1.03M
86.69M
89.96M
151%
16.43M
- 74832.00K
32%
16.43M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.14M
Differed Income Tax :
22.69M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 58.00K
Change in Working Capital :
6.06M
Accounts Receivables:
27.03M
Other Working Capital:
31.32M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 7445.00K
Investments in PP&E:
49.41M
Net Acquisitions:
- 18121.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
281.49M
-
281.49M
41.66M
-
72.04M
395.19M
557.33M
-
-
-
-
17.25M
574.58M
-
969.77M
13.81M
29.27M
-
-
48.53M
91.61M
1.22B
63.14M
1.29B
-
1.38B
48.00K
- 950038.00K
- 13168.0K
Value
251.53M
-
- 408606.00K
969.77M
-
1.25B
-
-
-
- 18121.00K
- 5863.00K
-
-
- 41298.00K
- 367.00K
- 47528.00K
- 615.00K
- 16853.00K
311.77M
328.62M
49.41M
- 18121.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
228.4365059
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Telecom Services
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
132.7859854
$55.00
$135.92
$139.13
$142.42