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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
CASY
Primary Facts
Grocery Stores
Name:
-
Sector:
196.51M
Industry:
213.24
CEO:
Mr. Darren Rebelez
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.745091562
-0.481117593
Casey'S General Stores, Inc. (XNAS:CASY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC. (XNAS:CASY)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$214.18
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$218.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$214.14
Price Upper limit ($) :
$224.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P288
This week:
$204.22
This month :
$193.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
37.25M
Market Cap Classification:
8.02B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-14.46%
$172.92
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$235.73
12.78%
$190.75
$255.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$225.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$171.43
$201.17
$229.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Grocery Stores
Sharpe Ratio:
CASY, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
3.81%
-0.275394807
Sharpe ratio is -27.54% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Grocery Stores
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.33%
Yearly returns:
15.97%
Comparison of returns:
-0.308148849
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -30.81% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
CASY is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.65
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 21.08% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.09%
Monthly Volatility:
4.68%
Yearly Volatility:
9.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
40.76%
-52.21%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -52.21% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.23%
Monthly VaR:
-9.45%
How Much Can the price of
Grocery Stores
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$179.21
This translates to price declining to:
-16%
This translates to price declining to:
-65.50%
Severe Crash Probability
-18.91%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
14.33%
CASY is a 33.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 14.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
CASY is a 33.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Grocery Stores
0.784
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.701
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.64
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.78
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 42.59% above industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.478
-0.017
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -1.70% lower than peers
0.425895617
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-38.64%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.906
-0.539
4.744
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Grocery Stores
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 474% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
0.232
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 23.19% above industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.20%
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 6.17% above the industry mean
-84.45%
EPS:
Three Hundred Thirty-Seven Million Seven Hundred Ten Thousand One Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
2.21%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 22.58% above the industry mean
-
-4.313425425
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.29%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 207% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Grocery Stores
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -38.64% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
23.44
0.160730216
183.7968694
0.160193863
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $33.74
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$347.72
0.061717842
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 6.17% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -84.45% below industry average
-99.94%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -99.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 3.71%
$0.35
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.35
Previous Dividend: $1.39
Expected next dividend best case: $0.36
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.34
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.92%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/03/2022
2022-01-31--$0.35
2021-07-30--$0.34
2022-04-29--$0.35
2021-10-29--$0.35
2021-04-30--$0.34
-1.053948193
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
74.72%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
29.89%
Net debt to assets ratio:
82.84%
-52.33%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.33% below industry average
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.5x
-
0.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
19.03835068
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.29%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.588
89.16%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.588
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.346
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.021
Kurtosis
0.026
10.660
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.061
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Grocery Stores
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
2.76B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 44.14% higher than the industry
144.16%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
2.76B
Effective Tax Rate:
2.54%
0.205261321
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 45.03% higher than the industry
-13.94%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 144.16% higher than the industry
45.03%
Financial Leverage:
-
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -13.94% lower than the industry
-0.283046379
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$45.16
-1.355910326
Current ratio is -28.30% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -431.34% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -135.59% below industry average
0.496459089
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 50% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
2.070363067
Profit generated per employee:
$151.07
17%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 17% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0.584073114
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 58% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0.584073114
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Grocery Stores
$307.67
Innovator Lddrd Alloc PB (BATS:BUFF)
PILGRIM'S PRIDE CORPORATION (XNAS:PPC)
COCA-COLA CONSOLIDATED, INC. (XNAS:COKE)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCN)
NEWELL BRANDS INC. (XNAS:NWL)
Oatly Group AB (XNAS:OTLY)
LANCASTER COLONY CORPORATION (XNAS:LANC)
BEYOND MEAT, INC. (XNAS:BYND)
Current Analyst Ratings
$9.10
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/30/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
12.95B
10.19B
86%
-
-
-
-
2.11B
12.30B
-
-
5.19B
173%
100.94M
- 134838.00K
14%
100.94M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
119.16M
Differed Income Tax :
75.89M
Stock Based Compensation :
33.46M
Change in Working Capital :
8.62M
Accounts Receivables:
5.84M
Other Working Capital:
65.73M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.55M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 1411.00K
Investments in PP&E:
241.56M
Net Acquisitions:
- 45045.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 617291.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
7/31/2021
2022
Q1
198.93M
-
198.93M
117.38M
338.08M
16.88M
671.27M
3.82B
440.42M
-
-
-
148.10M
4.40B
-
5.08B
453.51M
34.10M
-
-
253.33M
740.94M
1.68B
150.36M
2.30B
-
3.05B
50.46M
1.98B
-
Value
2.11B
-
2.03B
5.08B
-
1.72B
-
-
18.00M
- 644335.00K
- 4867.00K
-
-
- 12609.00K
282.64M
265.16M
-
- 137617.00K
198.93M
336.55M
241.56M
- 45045.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-4.93104842
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Grocery Stores
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
250.5447262
$250.54
$263.75
$277.64
$292.27