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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
BLKB
Primary Facts
Software�Application
Name:
-
Sector:
7.56M
Industry:
51.23
CEO:
Mr. Michael Gianoni
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.796033315
-0.923143889
Blackbaud, Inc. (XNAS:BLKB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
BLACKBAUD, INC. (XNAS:BLKB)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$51.52
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$52.97
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$51.47
Price Upper limit ($) :
$54.71
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P431
This week:
$48.17
This month :
$44.39
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
53.03M
Market Cap Classification:
2.66B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-20.39%
$37.56
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$59.00
21.79%
$43.46
$65.43
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$55.53
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.03
$46.93
$56.91
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Software�Application
Sharpe Ratio:
BLKB, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.96%
-2.079102472
Sharpe ratio is -207.91% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Software�Application
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
-0.02%
Monthly returns:
-0.11%
Yearly returns:
-5.10%
Comparison of returns:
-1.513567649
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -151.36% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
BLKB is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.86
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -145.63% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.89%
Monthly Volatility:
6.47%
Yearly Volatility:
12.95%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
56.43%
-93.87%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -93.87% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.97%
Monthly VaR:
-13.34%
How Much Can the price of
Software�Application
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
Worst case (decline):
$39.01
This translates to price declining to:
-24%
This translates to price declining to:
-92.44%
Severe Crash Probability
-26.68%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
61.35%
BLKB is a 88.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 61.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
BLKB is a 88.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Software�Application
1.011
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.744
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.791
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.01
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -24.31% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.958
-0.286
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -28.64% lower than peers
-0.243052975
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 15.20% above industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.118
5.429
-9.662
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Software�Application
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -966% below the market average
-0.181
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -18.08% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.54%
After-tax cost of debt:
29.74%
Overall debt rating:
23.49%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
29.74%
15.20%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.38
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -75.47% below the industry mean
-94.12%
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -80.56% lower than the industry
-179.34%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -52.45% below the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1495.37% higher than the industry
-66.40726462
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 39.93%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 164% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Software�Application
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
504.5
1.840663181
-15.98378516
-4.20512316
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $9.50
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$18.21
-0.754740803
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -75.47% below the industry mean
-
-0.805614413
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -94.12% below industry average
-135.86%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -135.86% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
$0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.24
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 13/03/2020
Previous dividend record date: 28/02/2020
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 02/10/2020
2019-11-26--$0.12
--$0.00
2020-02-27--$0.12
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.98%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.5 years
Debt to assets ratio:
1.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.20%
-96.48%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.48% below industry average
-0.91
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.0x
-90.37%
39.93%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
10.58289594
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.51%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.375
-25.43%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.375
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.141
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.001
Kurtosis
0.002
10.646
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.394
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Software�Application
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
491.31M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -97.54% lower than the industry
-106.64%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
491.31M
Effective Tax Rate:
-612.98%
-0.132307239
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -95.50% lower than the industry
-95.07%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -106.64% lower than the industry
-95.50%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -90.62% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -95.07% lower than the industry
-0.77693364
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$0.96
-0.765299372
Current ratio is -77.69% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -6640.73% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -76.53% below industry average
-0.224266398
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
1.638528787
Profit generated per employee:
$1.93
-93%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -93% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.270164989
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -127% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.270164989
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
24.39%
14.95374007
Competitors/Peer firms of
Software�Application
$47.75
KULICKE AND SOFFA INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:KLIC)
KNOWBE4, INC. (XNAS:KNBE)
SONOS, INC. (XNAS:SONO)
PERFICIENT, INC. (XNAS:PRFT)
FLYWIRE CORPORATION (XNAS:FLYW)
NOVA LTD (XNAS:NVMI)
VIASAT, INC. (XNAS:VSAT)
VERINT SYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:VRNT)
Current Analyst Ratings
-$0.09
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
965.67M
474.36M
204%
135.35M
159.44M
352.17M
192.74M
2.49M
964.37M
159.00K
20.49M
87.49M
43%
- 1349.00K
- 18177.00K
-2%
- 1349.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 10407.00K
Differed Income Tax :
25.55M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 7431.00K
Change in Working Capital :
27.86M
Accounts Receivables:
- 11063.00K
Other Working Capital:
15.92M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
24.50M
Net Acquisitions:
- 4266.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
33.79M
-
33.79M
93.82M
-
379.51M
507.11M
164.48M
1.06B
683.35M
-
-
216.96M
2.12B
-
2.63B
39.49M
18.12M
-
350.95M
350.37M
758.93M
50.79M
964.62M
1.16B
-
1.92B
68.00K
232.05M
15.3M
Value
490.01M
457.64M
705.05M
2.63B
-
68.90M
-
-
- 32668.00K
- 36934.00K
- 33765.00K
-
-
-
- 291683.00K
- 325448.00K
- 504.00K
- 338382.00K
313.38M
651.76M
24.50M
- 16949.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
94.67637043
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Software�Application
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
36.71145992
$54.98
$39.21
$41.87
$44.71