_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
BERY
Primary Facts
Packaging & Containers
Name:
-
Sector:
- 466000.00K
Industry:
53.99
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Salmon
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.988456924
-0.041753464
Berry Global Group, Inc. (XNYS:BERY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
Berry Global Group, Inc. (XNYS:BERY)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$54.35
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$56.16
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$54.22
Price Upper limit ($) :
$58.32
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P395
This week:
$51.52
This month :
$48.47
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
125.10M
Market Cap Classification:
6.66B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-10.69%
$42.96
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.18
9.65%
$47.80
$65.44
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$57.34
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.54
$50.64
$58.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Packaging & Containers
Sharpe Ratio:
BERY, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.57%
0.036323571
Sharpe ratio is 3.63% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Packaging & Containers
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.23%
Yearly returns:
10.87%
Comparison of returns:
-0.051144212
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -5.11% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
BERY is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.55
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -28.84% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.25%
Monthly Volatility:
5.02%
Yearly Volatility:
10.05%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
43.80%
-66.88%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.88% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-4.57%
Monthly VaR:
-10.22%
How Much Can the price of
Packaging & Containers
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$44.51
This translates to price declining to:
-18%
This translates to price declining to:
-70.78%
Severe Crash Probability
-20.43%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
23.55%
BERY is a 44.21% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 23.55% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
BERY is a 44.21% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Packaging & Containers
1.194
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.544
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.977
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.19
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is 18.92% above industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.346
-0.344
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -34.41% lower than peers
0.189218812
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -1.52% below industry mean WACC
-36.16%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.381
-1.318
-0.290
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Packaging & Containers
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -29% below the market average
0.130
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is 12.98% above industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.28%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.73%
Overall debt rating:
2.94%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.73%
-1.52%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -70.32% below the industry mean
609.29%
EPS:
Seven Hundred Three Million Six Hundred Twenty Thousand Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -74.29% lower than the industry
108.84%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -68.53% below the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.05%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -91% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Packaging & Containers
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -36.16% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.69
-0.507119834
106.1856483
-0.491550875
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$146.00
-0.703246999
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -70.32% below the industry mean
-
-0.74286131
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 609.29% above the industry average
-262.37%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -262.37% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
282.24%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.2 years
Debt to assets ratio:
53.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
299.30%
-14.97%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -14.97% below industry average
0.20
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.3x
-63.53%
0.05%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
20.67457354
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.34%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.62
11.45%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.62
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.384
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.007
Kurtosis
-0.009
3.398
Skewness of returns:
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
-0.089
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Packaging & Containers
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
2.91B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -27.77% lower than the industry
20.86%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
2.91B
Effective Tax Rate:
2.42%
-0.500945467
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -3.62% lower than the industry
-47.61%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 20.86% higher than the industry
-3.62%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 20.06% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -47.61% lower than the industry
0.118492311
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$78.81
-0.787124481
Current ratio is 11.85% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -78.71% below industry average
-0.872623752
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -87% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.9096548
Profit generated per employee:
$19.85
-93%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -93% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.399835644
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -40% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.399835644
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Packaging & Containers
$103.22
SEALED AIR CORPORATION (XNYS:SEE)
On Holding Ltd (XNYS:ONON)
DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC. (XNYS:DKS)
ARAMARK (XNYS:ARMK)
Capri Holdings Limited (XNYS:CPRI)
DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPORATION (XNYS:DECK)
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD. (XNYS:NCLH)
AUTOLIV, INC. (XNYS:ALV)
Current Analyst Ratings
$5.40
Strong buy�17%
Buy�33%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/2/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
18.27B
15.36B
64%
-
-
1.08B
-
209.00M
16.65B
-
368.00M
1.06B
55%
191.00M
- 394000.00K
23%
191.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
121.00M
Differed Income Tax :
211.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 12000.00K
Change in Working Capital :
21.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 640000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 640000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 5000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 304000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 162000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
1/1/2022
2022
Q1
582.00M
-
582.00M
1.83B
2.04B
237.00M
4.69B
5.22B
-
7.98B
-
-
109.00M
12.65B
237.00M
17.34B
1.58B
20.00M
-
-
1.06B
2.66B
9.86B
946.00M
11.38B
-
14.05B
1.00M
2.41B
- 289000.0K
Value
1.29B
-
3.29B
17.34B
-
9.88B
-
-
-
- 162000.00K
- 5000.00K
16.00M
- 51000.00K
-
-
- 40000.00K
- 3000.00K
- 509000.00K
582.00M
1.09B
- 304000.00K
- 162000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-0.704212866
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Packaging & Containers
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
75.80915163
$75.81
$81.89
$88.46
$95.55