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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
AZPN
Primary Facts
Software�Application
Name:
-
Sector:
32.26M
Industry:
208.57
CEO:
Mr. Antonio Pietri
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.304371565
-0.970613271
Aspen Technology, Inc. (XNAS:AZPN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AZPN)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$209.96
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$216.92
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$209.8
Price Upper limit ($) :
$225.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P442
This week:
$196.99
This month :
$182.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
64.43M
Market Cap Classification:
13.39B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-13.24%
$156.79
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$237.28
29.08%
$179.86
$262.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$223.83
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$154.89
$193.31
$229.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Software�Application
Sharpe Ratio:
AZPN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.96%
3.168931862
Sharpe ratio is 316.89% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Software�Application
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.12%
Monthly returns:
0.60%
Yearly returns:
28.76%
Comparison of returns:
1.893748964
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 189.37% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
AZPN is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.46
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 76.30% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.76%
Monthly Volatility:
6.17%
Yearly Volatility:
12.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
53.83%
-64.06%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.06% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.55%
Monthly VaR:
-12.41%
How Much Can the price of
Software�Application
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$165.65
This translates to price declining to:
-21%
This translates to price declining to:
-86.00%
Severe Crash Probability
-24.83%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
50.12%
AZPN is a 75.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 50.12% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
AZPN is a 75.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Software�Application
1.191
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.65
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.987
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.19
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -10.83% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.875
-0.289
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -28.91% lower than peers
-0.108346505
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -1.72% below industry mean WACC
14.25%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.396
-8.390
11.107
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Software�Application
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 1111% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.081
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -8.06% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.30%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.92%
Overall debt rating:
1.51%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.92%
-1.72%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 69.04% above the industry mean
-57.82%
EPS:
Two Hundred Sixty-Seven Million Nine Hundred Eighty-One Thousand Two Hundred Forty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -64.13% lower than the industry
-98.39%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is 139.56% above the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 41.76% higher than the industry
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.33%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 1560% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Software�Application
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is 14.25% above industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
55.47
-0.687650644
713.9424038
-0.707861588
$3.69
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$10.76
0.690358578
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 69.04% above the industry mean
-
-0.641345208
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -57.82% below industry average
-47.32%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -47.32% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
11.15%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Debt to assets ratio:
5.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.74%
-59.16%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -59.16% below industry average
0.02
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
-103.15%
1.33%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
11.76788222
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.35%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.411
-18.38%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.411
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.169
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.012
Kurtosis
0.019
20.980
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
1.396
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Software�Application
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
635.37M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -304.68% lower than the industry
-322.13%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
635.37M
Effective Tax Rate:
3.71%
-0.416064645
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -636.11% lower than the industry
-400.24%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -322.13% lower than the industry
-636.11%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 2.22% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -400.24% lower than the industry
0.131621958
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$4.59
0.779057637
Current ratio is 13.16% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is 77.91% above industry average
0.056592
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 6% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
15.59881364
Profit generated per employee:
$5.25
-922%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -922% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-3.18897237
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -319% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-3.18897237
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
2.17%
0.417642003
Competitors/Peer firms of
Software�Application
$315.99
SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:SYNA)
PFPT
Gitlab Inc. (XNAS:GTLB)
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:LSCC)
Amdocs Limited (XNAS:DOX)
MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC. (XNAS:MKSI)
MONDAY.COM LTD (XNAS:MNDY)
dLocal Ltd (XNAS:DLO)
Current Analyst Ratings
$4.02
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
693.09M
57.72M
366%
104.63M
108.79M
235.74M
126.96M
-
398.09M
36.05M
6.23M
10.86M
191%
49.49M
26.32M
181%
49.49M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
39.40M
Differed Income Tax :
2.78M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 53352.00K
Change in Working Capital :
10.09M
Accounts Receivables:
29.14M
Other Working Capital:
44.39M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 4858.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
4.63M
Investments in PP&E:
32.69M
Net Acquisitions:
- 253.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 350.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
9/30/2021
2022
Q1
247.97M
-
247.97M
344.64M
-
17.52M
610.12M
37.01M
157.24M
43.00M
-
2.07M
470.73M
710.05M
-
1.32B
4.09M
29.28M
48.30M
53.84M
92.78M
179.99M
295.84M
3.70M
447.94M
-
627.93M
10.47M
1.82B
5.0M
Value
340.37M
- 1140719.00K
692.25M
1.32B
-
325.12M
-
-
- 178.00K
- 781.00K
- 4000.00K
1.39M
- 154353.00K
-
- 6063.00K
- 163025.00K
- 558.00K
- 131677.00K
248.18M
379.85M
32.69M
- 431.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-228.976479
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Software�Application
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
232.2399023
$232.24
$250.82
$270.90
$292.57