_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
AXNX
Primary Facts
Medical Devices
Name:
-
Sector:
- 9458.00K
Industry:
70.65
CEO:
Mr. Raymond Cohen
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.012895241
-1.066264419
Axonics, Inc. (XNAS:AXNX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
AXONICS, INC. (XNAS:AXNX)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$70.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$71.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$71.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$72.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P514
This week:
$65.47
This month :
$59.07
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
49.13M
Market Cap Classification:
3.36B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-21.04%
$47.48
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$83.39
20.84%
$57.91
$94.65
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$77.32
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.65
$63.98
$79.73
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Medical Devices
Sharpe Ratio:
AXNX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.51%
2.760624059
Sharpe ratio is 276.06% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Medical Devices
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.22%
Monthly returns:
1.09%
Yearly returns:
52.38%
Comparison of returns:
2.410908592
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 241.09% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
AXNX is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.22
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 149.90% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
3.68%
Monthly Volatility:
8.22%
Yearly Volatility:
16.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
71.67%
-66.01%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.01% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-7.33%
Monthly VaR:
-16.40%
How Much Can the price of
Medical Devices
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$51.94
This translates to price declining to:
-26%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-32.79%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
98.27%
AXNX is a 131.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 98.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
AXNX is a 131.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Medical Devices
0.423
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.832
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.574
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.42
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -60.25% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.415
-0.695
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -69.45% lower than peers
-0.602468242
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -11.42% below industry mean WACC
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.811
8.430
29.494
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Medical Devices
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 2949% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.421
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -42.08% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.94%
After-tax cost of debt:
62.10%
Overall debt rating:
49.06%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
62.10%
-11.42%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 91.88% above the industry mean
1167.05%
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-210.06%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -12.63% below the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -21347.23% lower than the industry
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -2039% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Medical Devices
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
-
-440.8173309
-1.160270468
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$3.96
0.918778602
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 91.88% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 1167.05% above the industry average
-154.94%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -154.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-43.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.4 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-38.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.87%
-95.73%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.73% below industry average
-1.75
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.0x
-131.13%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
9.352363529
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.41%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.337
-27.95%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.337
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.114
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.04
Kurtosis
-0.086
4.939
Skewness of returns:
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.192
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Medical Devices
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
128.56M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 141.80% higher than the industry
122.19%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
128.56M
Effective Tax Rate:
-8.90%
-1.005143057
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 352.82% higher than the industry
76.58%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 122.19% higher than the industry
352.82%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -175.05% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 76.58% higher than the industry
0.863533115
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$0.18
0.901089599
Current ratio is 86.35% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is 90.11% above industry average
-0.00263542
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-20.3916785
Profit generated per employee:
-$1.28
422%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 422% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0.287930316
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 29% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0.287930316
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
27.86%
-213.4722951
Competitors/Peer firms of
Medical Devices
$20.41
Outset Medical, Inc. (XNAS:OM)
HEALTH CATALYST, INC. (XNAS:HCAT)
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:GBT)
SEER, INC. (XNAS:SEER)
BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:BCRX)
VERICEL CORPORATION (XNAS:VCEL)
ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ZNTL)
MAGELLAN HEALTH, INC. (XFRA:MAH1)
Current Analyst Ratings
-$1.81
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
194.34M
65.78M
264%
39.16M
36.17M
154.10M
117.92M
9.03M
268.06M
75.00K
6.27M
11.02M
-129%
226.00K
- 6281.00K
-166%
226.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 22668.00K
Differed Income Tax :
3.03M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 1210.00K
Change in Working Capital :
7.14M
Accounts Receivables:
4.58M
Other Working Capital:
2.53M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 4925.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 39.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 9167.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 291.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
213.18M
-
213.18M
27.43M
61.88M
4.95M
307.43M
6.91M
102.56M
101.18M
-
-
7.49M
218.14M
-
525.57M
10.39M
1.40M
-
-
13.73M
25.52M
8.69M
10.37M
36.62M
-
62.14M
5.00K
- 337234.00K
- 11480.0K
Value
202.29M
812.14M
463.43M
525.57M
-
10.09M
-
-
-
- 291.00K
-
-
-
-
1.44M
1.44M
316.00K
- 7698.00K
213.18M
220.88M
- 9167.00K
- 291.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-47.68525915
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Medical Devices
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
18.24297277
$73.02
$18.76
$19.30
$19.84