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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
ATSG
Primary Facts
Integrated Freight & Logistics
Name:
-
Sector:
17.42M
Industry:
29.54
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Hete
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-0.561845773
-1.47058375
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (XNAS:ATSG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ATSG)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$29.63
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$30.09
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.69
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.65
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P199
This week:
$28.04
This month :
$26.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
74.37M
Market Cap Classification:
2.19B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-8.94%
$22.82
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.30
21.7%
$25.78
$36.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$31.56
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.57
$27.52
$32.25
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Integrated Freight & Logistics
Sharpe Ratio:
ATSG, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
3.14%
-0.220055713
Sharpe ratio is -22.01% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Integrated Freight & Logistics
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.35%
Yearly returns:
16.87%
Comparison of returns:
-0.204956136
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -20.50% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
ATSG is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.89
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 7.28% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.51%
Monthly Volatility:
5.62%
Yearly Volatility:
11.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
48.98%
-88.24%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -88.24% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.09%
Monthly VaR:
-11.38%
How Much Can the price of
Integrated Freight & Logistics
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$23.83
This translates to price declining to:
-19%
This translates to price declining to:
-78.85%
Severe Crash Probability
-22.76%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
37.63%
ATSG is a 60.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
ATSG is a 60.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Integrated Freight & Logistics
0.557
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.619
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.539
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.56
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -47.81% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.321
-0.454
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -45.43% lower than peers
-0.478068345
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -30.26% below industry mean WACC
-31.32%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.763
-0.079
6.303
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Integrated Freight & Logistics
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 630% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.334
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -33.41% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.17%
Overall debt rating:
3.29%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.17%
-30.26%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -24.96% below the industry mean
-2.44%
EPS:
Two Hundred Twenty-Seven Million Five Hundred Seventy-Eight Thousand Three Hundred Twenty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
13.71%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -68.73% below the industry mean
-
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.41%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 77% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Integrated Freight & Logistics
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -31.32% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.62
-0.27568804
49.08846734
-0.398229328
$1.33
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$24.80
-0.249603897
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -24.96% below the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -2.44% below industry average
7.12%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 7.12% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
95.96%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Debt to assets ratio:
39.53%
Net debt to assets ratio:
97.15%
-79.20%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -79.20% below industry average
-0.69
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.7x
-118.73%
6.41%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
10.67276752
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.36%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.378
-31.46%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.378
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.143
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.021
Kurtosis
-0.031
8.678
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.920
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Integrated Freight & Logistics
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
423.52M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 164.43% higher than the industry
269.84%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
423.52M
Effective Tax Rate:
0.69%
0.026297632
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -206.93% lower than the industry
-45.29%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 269.84% higher than the industry
-206.93%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is -69.15% less than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -45.29% lower than the industry
-0.499488754
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$17.69
-0.981874745
Current ratio is -49.95% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -98.19% below industry average
-0.650599864
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -65% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
0.772635177
Profit generated per employee:
$8.44
68%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates 68% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-0.695666558
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -70% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-0.695666558
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Integrated Freight & Logistics
$59.94
SKYWEST, INC. (XNAS:SKYW)
GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:ROCK)
Raven Property Group Limited (MISX:RAVN)
Golden Ocean Group Limited. (XNAS:GOGL)
ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:ICFI)
NV5 Global, Inc. (XNAS:NVEE)
Lilium NV (XNAS:LILM)
CSW INDUSTRIALS, INC. (XNAS:CSWI)
Current Analyst Ratings
$3.06
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.84B
1.42B
91%
-
104.40M
104.40M
-
- 15044.00K
1.51B
29.00K
55.67M
258.10M
139%
74.70M
- 22979.00K
69%
74.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
49.80M
Differed Income Tax :
88.25M
Stock Based Compensation :
15.29M
Change in Working Capital :
1.65M
Accounts Receivables:
- 28347.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 5037.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 7100.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 969.00K
Investments in PP&E:
125.67M
Net Acquisitions:
- 108252.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
35.54M
-
35.54M
216.66M
49.72M
29.23M
331.15M
2.24B
-
-
-
-
211.62M
2.96B
-
3.29B
187.18M
19.47M
-
47.80M
63.05M
317.50M
1.32B
72.87M
1.62B
-
1.93B
743.00K
380.10M
- 61829.0K
Value
89.36M
1.04B
1.35B
3.29B
-
1.33B
-
-
76.00K
- 108176.00K
- 90100.00K
-
-
-
38.65M
- 51450.00K
-
- 33958.00K
35.54M
69.50M
125.67M
- 108252.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-15.08356517
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Integrated Freight & Logistics
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
51.74132513
$30.80
$53.68
$55.69
$57.77