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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
ATO
Primary Facts
Utilities�Regulated Gas
Name:
-
Sector:
- 622356.00K
Industry:
114.55
CEO:
Mr. John Akers
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
2.584882682
0.95375765
Atmos Energy Corporation (XNYS:ATO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
ATMOS ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:ATO)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$114.88
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$116.53
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$114.95
Price Upper limit ($) :
$118.5
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P214
This week:
$110.18
This month :
$104.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
139.89M
Market Cap Classification:
15.98B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-12.5%
$94.99
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$125.55
15.38%
$103.55
$134.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$120.54
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$94.25
$108.56
$122.52
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Utilities�Regulated Gas
Sharpe Ratio:
ATO, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
2.09%
-0.53306711
Sharpe ratio is -53.31% lower than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Utilities�Regulated Gas
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.14%
Yearly returns:
6.50%
Comparison of returns:
-0.688779059
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -68.88% below industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
ATO is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.74
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -57.26% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.87%
Monthly Volatility:
4.19%
Yearly Volatility:
8.37%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
36.49%
-34.12%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.12% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.82%
Monthly VaR:
-8.54%
How Much Can the price of
Utilities�Regulated Gas
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
Worst case (decline):
$97.61
This translates to price declining to:
-15%
This translates to price declining to:
-59.14%
Severe Crash Probability
-17.07%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
3.24%
ATO is a 20.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 3.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
ATO is a 20.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Utilities�Regulated Gas
0.514
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.68
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.515
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.51
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -40.26% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.514
-0.233
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -23.33% lower than peers
-0.402622322
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -29.09% below industry mean WACC
-34.94%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.728
-1.014
-0.107
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Utilities�Regulated Gas
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is -11% below the market average
-0.262
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -26.23% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.67%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.81%
Overall debt rating:
0.64%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.81%
-29.09%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $55.13
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 23.84% above the industry mean
-81.40%
EPS:
Seven Hundred Forty-Two Million Three Hundred Forty Thousand One Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-72.90%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -63.77% below the industry mean
-
11.00061053
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -44% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Utilities�Regulated Gas
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -34.94% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.91
0.592145709
70.12468732
0.63351887
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $77.54
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$27.14
0.238438051
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 23.84% above the industry mean
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -81.40% below industry average
-98.11%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -98.11% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 13.79%
$0.68
Previous Dividend: $0.68
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.68
Previous Dividend: $2.67
Expected next dividend best case: $0.72
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.64
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.62
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.75%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 23/05/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/04/2022
2022-02-17--$0.68
2021-08-20--$0.63
2022-05-20--$0.68
2021-11-26--$0.68
2021-05-21--$0.63
-1.082929622
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.1 years
Debt to assets ratio:
35.82%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.00%
-50.95%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.95% below industry average
2.84
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.3x
-20.88%
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
18.86805368
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.29%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.585
6.02%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.585
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.342
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.045
Kurtosis
0.049
13.011
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
0.482
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Utilities�Regulated Gas
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
1.91B
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is 95.68% higher than the industry
164.21%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
1.91B
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-0.217691389
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is 14.36% higher than the industry
25.28%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is 164.21% higher than the industry
14.36%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 284.09% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is 25.28% higher than the industry
0.021531731
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$39.71
-0.3198846
Current ratio is 2.15% above industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 1100.06% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -31.99% below industry average
-0.509215838
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -51% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.43800885
Profit generated per employee:
$9.70
-43%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -43% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0.472026214
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 47% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0.472026214
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
Utilities�Regulated Gas
$150.76
Energy Company of Parana (XNYS:ELP)
CENTERPOINT ENERGY, INC. (XNYS:CNP)
Essential Utilities, Inc. (XNYS:WTRG)
Evergy, Inc. (XNYS:EVRG)
Enel Americas SA (OTCM:ENIAY)
KOREA ELECTRIC POWER CORPORATION (XNYS:KEP)
NISOURCE INC. (XNYS:NI)
VISTRA CORP. (XNYS:VST)
Current Analyst Ratings
$5.34
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.80B
910.36M
262%
-
-
-
-
1.30B
2.21B
-
64.38M
505.29M
148%
132.19M
- 162210.00K
71%
132.19M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
179.57M
Differed Income Tax :
127.86M
Stock Based Compensation :
11.81M
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
- 305531.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 305531.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
48.12M
Investments in PP&E:
61.82M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
12/31/2021
2022
Q1
264.01M
-
264.01M
514.33M
-
2.50B
3.27B
15.73B
731.26M
-
-
1.74B
-
18.20B
-
21.48B
-
2.40B
-
-
1.03B
3.43B
5.56B
-
9.04B
-
-
677.00K
2.97B
23.9M
Value
1.30B
-
-
21.48B
-
7.96B
-
-
- 679748.00K
- 679748.00K
-
3.92M
-
- 90411.00K
851.70M
765.21M
-
147.28M
264.01M
116.72M
61.82M
- 684180.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
124.1383669
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Utilities�Regulated Gas
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
131.6256361
$131.63
$136.17
$140.87
$145.73