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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
AMSWA
Primary Facts
Software�Application
Name:
-
Sector:
2.73M
Industry:
16.34
CEO:
Mr. H. Allan Dow
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.147927334
-1.014282216
American Software, Inc. (XNAS:AMSWA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
AMERICAN SOFTWARE, INC. (XNAS:AMSWA)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$16.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.81
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.44
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.28
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P267
This week:
$15.22
This month :
$13.85
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
33.70M
Market Cap Classification:
546.56M
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-27.52%
$11.35
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.14
39.06%
$13.54
$21.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$17.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.16
$14.82
$18.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Software�Application
Sharpe Ratio:
AMSWA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.96%
0.645488708
Sharpe ratio is 64.55% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Software�Application
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.31%
Yearly returns:
14.89%
Comparison of returns:
0.49881297
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 49.88% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
AMSWA is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
1.00
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& is -30.41% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
3.35%
Monthly Volatility:
7.50%
Yearly Volatility:
15.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
65.40%
-13.85%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -13.85% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-6.83%
Monthly VaR:
-15.27%
How Much Can the price of
Software�Application
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$12.04
This translates to price declining to:
-26%
This translates to price declining to:
>85%
Severe Crash Probability
-30.53%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
84.63%
AMSWA is a 115.51% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 84.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
AMSWA is a 115.51% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Software�Application
0.855
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.809
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.623
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.86
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -35.95% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.851
-0.531
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -53.07% lower than peers
-0.359489083
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.881
-3.492
3.746
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Software�Application
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 375% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.267
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -26.74% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.97%
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -62.37% below the industry mean
-107.18%
EPS:
Eleven Million Seven Hundred Forty-Two Thousand Three Hundred Twenty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -57.82% lower than the industry
-38.81%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -46.30% below the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 588.68% higher than the industry
-0.834453187
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates 300% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Software�Application
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
47.34
-0.73346376
65.71111676
-0.751335835
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.85
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$3.79
-0.623679393
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -62.37% below the industry mean
-
-0.57822779
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -107.18% below industry average
-115.56%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -115.56% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend payout rate: 28.23%
$0.11
Previous Dividend: $0.11
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.11
Previous Dividend: $0.44
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 17/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Dividend History:
Previous dividend declaration date: 16/02/2022
2022-02-03--$0.11
2021-08-12--$0.11
2022-05-05--$0.11
2021-11-18--$0.11
2021-05-06--$0.11
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-71.51%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 33.7 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-50.42%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.53%
-99.32%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.32% below industry average
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.0x
-
0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
8.517137551
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.51%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.31
-38.40%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.31
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.096
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.029
Kurtosis
-0.056
38.536
Skewness of returns:
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
1.746
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Software�Application
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
75.80M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -152.30% lower than the industry
-153.83%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
75.80M
Effective Tax Rate:
6.06%
-0.710948868
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -285.45% lower than the industry
-177.24%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -153.83% lower than the industry
-285.45%
Financial Leverage:
-
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -177.24% lower than the industry
-0.04899027
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$0.02
-1.327505985
Current ratio is -4.90% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is -83.45% lower than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -132.75% below industry average
-0.117531094
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -12% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
3.001126288
Profit generated per employee:
$0.53
-275%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -275% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.841398074
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -184% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.841398074
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
10.53%
5.886769587
Competitors/Peer firms of
Software�Application
$33.07
RIMINI STREET, INC. (XNAS:RMNI)
CLEANSPARK, INC. (XNAS:CLSK)
VERITONE, INC. (XNAS:VERI)
EBANG INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:EBON)
MITEK SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MITK)
ALPHA AND OMEGA SEMICONDUCTOR LIMITED (XNAS:AOSL)
ABSOLUTE SOFTWARE CORPORATION (XNAS:ABST)
UNIVERSAL ELECTRONICS INC. (XNAS:UEIC)
Current Analyst Ratings
$0.37
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
4/30/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
127.55M
51.76M
237%
17.60M
21.96M
44.83M
22.87M
212.00K
114.40M
391.00K
-
4.14M
56%
1.06M
681.00K
43%
1.06M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.95M
Differed Income Tax :
1.13M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 25.00K
Change in Working Capital :
775.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1520.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1459.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 221.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 274.00K
Investments in PP&E:
3.03M
Net Acquisitions:
- 302.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
7/31/2021
2022
Q1
91.85M
16.28M
108.13M
24.87M
-
6.96M
139.96M
4.83M
25.89M
4.17M
-
-
4.61M
39.49M
-
179.46M
2.03M
693.00K
-
36.92M
9.49M
49.13M
674.00K
514.00K
3.79M
-
52.92M
3.79M
- 15991.00K
-
Value
62.64M
138.74M
126.53M
179.46M
-
1.37M
-
-
-
- 302.00K
-
-
-
- 3608.00K
4.07M
464.00K
-
3.20M
91.85M
88.66M
3.03M
- 302.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-73.16584274
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Software�Application
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
26.4443905
$17.37
$27.96
$29.57
$31.27