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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
AMPH
Primary Facts
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
Name:
-
Sector:
44.63M
Industry:
28.91
CEO:
Dr. Jack Zhang
Total Employees:
Small Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.863002389
-43.69949294
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc (XNAS:AMPH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS INC (XNAS:AMPH)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$29.03
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.62
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P160
This week:
$27.36
This month :
$25.44
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
49.02M
Market Cap Classification:
1.39B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
D
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-21.15%
$21.97
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.77
12.57%
$25.05
$36.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.98
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.71
$26.84
$31.69
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
Sharpe Ratio:
AMPH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
0.91%
2.522956739
Sharpe ratio is 252.30% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.47%
Yearly returns:
22.62%
Comparison of returns:
0.592720664
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 59.27% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
AMPH is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.41
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 40.86% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
2.66%
Monthly Volatility:
5.95%
Yearly Volatility:
11.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
51.85%
-43.26%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -43.26% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-5.37%
Monthly VaR:
-12.00%
How Much Can the price of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
Worst case (decline):
$23.09
This translates to price declining to:
-20%
This translates to price declining to:
-83.16%
Severe Crash Probability
-24.01%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
45.16%
AMPH is a 69.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 45.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
AMPH is a 69.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
0.730
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.644
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.969
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.73
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -30.70% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.628
-0.453
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -45.31% lower than peers
-0.307046544
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is -7.43% below industry mean WACC
-73.04%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.370
2.775
9.208
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 921% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.214
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -21.38% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.92%
Overall debt rating:
0.73%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.92%
-7.43%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is -56.02% below the industry mean
-76.64%
EPS:
Seventy-Eight Million Six Hundred Sixteen Thousand Three Hundred Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is 15.27% higher than the industry
-73.06%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -98.53% below the industry mean
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1.95% higher than the industry
-
Debt per share
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.54%
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -24% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -73.04% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.26
-0.593129467
64.33779028
-0.550652892
$1.36
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$9.29
-0.560201522
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is -56.02% below the industry mean
-
0.152694026
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -76.64% below industry average
116.86%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is 116.86% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
-
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-14.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.3 years
Debt to assets ratio:
-9.40%
Net debt to assets ratio:
20.82%
-72.95%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.95% below industry average
17.76
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.2x
1572.43%
0.54%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
8.882185313
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.36%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.322
-21.23%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.322
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.103
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.023
Kurtosis
0.035
10.097
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.748
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
210.62M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -153.14% lower than the industry
-153.05%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
210.62M
Effective Tax Rate:
6.17%
0.688756095
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -404.32% lower than the industry
-270.50%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -153.05% lower than the industry
-404.32%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 1776.38% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -270.50% lower than the industry
-0.032874464
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$2.04
-0.508866452
Current ratio is -3.29% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
Cash conversion cycle is -50.89% below industry average
-0.692479189
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -69% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.242686081
Profit generated per employee:
$2.58
-55%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -55% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
-1.442791131
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates -144% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
-1.442791131
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
6.69%
0.019536693
Competitors/Peer firms of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
$483.85
SUTRO BIOPHARMA, INC. (XNAS:STRO)
Connect Biopharma Holdings Ltd (XNAS:CNTB)
IKENA ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:IKNA)
OPTIMIZERX CORPORATION (XNAS:OPRX)
VIEWRAY, INC. (XNAS:VRAY)
MESOBLAST LIMITED (XNAS:MESO)
ORIC PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ORIC)
Trean Insurance Group Inc (XNAS:TIG)
Current Analyst Ratings
$1.61
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
455.12M
244.50M
185%
62.39M
48.57M
67.03M
18.47M
-
373.92M
621.00K
968.00K
20.17M
110%
23.76M
26.86M
94%
23.76M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.25M
Differed Income Tax :
6.80M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
5.02M
Accounts Receivables:
17.00M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.93M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 2309.00K
Investments in PP&E:
50.77M
Net Acquisitions:
- 6139.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
172.63M
14.38M
187.01M
73.39M
95.15M
8.87M
364.42M
271.37M
3.26M
35.18M
3.32M
22.40M
16.30M
351.82M
-
716.24M
23.84M
5.44M
13.12M
-
85.08M
114.36M
99.84M
15.49M
122.35M
-
236.71M
6.00K
204.59M
- 7245.0K
Value
129.42M
282.17M
479.53M
716.24M
17.70M
105.28M
- 5317.00K
2.54M
- 189.00K
- 9110.00K
- 538.00K
-
- 1229.00K
-
6.42M
4.65M
- 29.00K
46.27M
172.86M
126.59M
50.77M
- 6139.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-995.2389495
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
399.4688466
$30.48
$419.07
$439.64
$461.22