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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
AMH
Primary Facts
REIT�Residential
Name:
-
Sector:
134.56M
Industry:
35.03
CEO:
Mr. David Singelyn
Total Employees:
Mid Cap
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
0.205837828
1.744714792
American Homes 4 Rent (XNYS:AMH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT (XNYS:AMH)
One Month Price Target:
Six Month Price Target :
$35.15
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$35.74
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.17
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
P383
This week:
$33.63
This month :
$31.91
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
348.37M
Market Cap Classification:
12.20B
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
A+
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
-14.78%
$28.78
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.51
11.96%
$31.55
$41.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$36.90
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.55
$33.16
$37.54
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
REIT�Residential
Sharpe Ratio:
AMH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Comparison:
1.59%
0.76930461
Sharpe ratio is 76.93% higher than the industry
Average Returns/Yield of
REIT�Residential
Daily returns:
1
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.32%
Yearly returns:
15.41%
Comparison of returns:
0.180331219
Classification:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 18.03% above industry average
Results of T-Test of Returns:
AMH is a riskier investment compared to Nasdaq (IXIC)
Statistical test of Returns:
0.71
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
& ratio is 23.13% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Weekly Volatility:
1.97%
Monthly Volatility:
4.41%
Yearly Volatility:
8.82%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
38.46%
-41.41%
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.41% below long-term volatility
Weekly VaR:
-3.99%
Monthly VaR:
-8.92%
How Much Can the price of
REIT�Residential
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
Worst case (decline):
$29.76
This translates to price declining to:
-15%
This translates to price declining to:
-61.77%
Severe Crash Probability
-17.83%
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
7.82%
AMH is a 25.86% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 7.82% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
AMH is a 25.86% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500
Beta Examination of
REIT�Residential
0.605
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.657
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.562
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.60
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
Beta is -23.00% below industry average
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-0.399
Average Industry Beta:
Beta is -39.89% lower than peers
-0.229955437
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
WACC is 31.90% above industry mean WACC
-84.74%
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.795
0.793
5.168
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
REIT�Residential
Equity cost of capital:
Alpha is 517% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
-0.145
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
Equity cost of capital is -14.50% below industry mean WACC
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
27.92%
Overall debt rating:
22.05%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
27.92%
31.90%
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Price to sales ratio is 5.00% above the industry mean
123.84%
EPS:
One Hundred Sixty-Six Million Eight Hundred Seventy-Five Thousand Eight Hundred Forty Dollars
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
Price to free cash flow ratio is -8.89% lower than the industry
141.80%
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
Price to book ratio is -35.38% below the industry mean
-
23.210423
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Valuation Analysis Today of
REIT�Residential
P/E Ratio:
Sustainable growth rate is -84.74% below industry average
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
61.17
-0.077538144
31.83163815
0.10047745
$1.20
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
$2.85
0.049981769
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
Price to sales ratio is 5.00% above the industry mean
-
-0.088855584
Net income growth rate (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is 123.84% above the industry average
-106.25%
Dividend Analysis
Net income growth rate is -106.25% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
-
$0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.56
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.14
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 18.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
Dividend History:
-
2022-03-14--$0.18
2021-09-14--$0.10
2022-06-14--$0.18
2021-12-14--$0.10
2021-06-14--$0.10
-1.664359367
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.49%
Net debt to equity ratio:
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.9 years
Debt to assets ratio:
3.31%
Net debt to assets ratio:
66.42%
-26.76%
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
Debt-to-asset ratio is -26.76% below industry average
1.04
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.6x
-925.20%
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
23.77846777
Statistical significance of correlation:
-0.27%
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.672
6.76%
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.672
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.452
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.027
Kurtosis
0.031
8.168
Skewness of returns:
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
-0.454
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
REIT�Residential
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
546.63M
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
Net profit margin is -33.31% lower than the industry
-26.15%
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
546.63M
Effective Tax Rate:
3.68%
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
Return on assets (ROA) is -46.29% lower than the industry
-63.35%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
Operating profit margin is -26.15% lower than the industry
-46.29%
Financial Leverage:
Interest coverage ratio is 104.32% more than industry average
Current Ratio:
Return on equity (ROE) is -63.35% lower than the industry
-0.977887796
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
$0.00
-
Current ratio is -97.79% below industry average
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
Equity growth rate per share is 2321.04% higher than the industry
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-0.201798459
EBITDA generated per employee:
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
-0.321332312
Profit generated per employee:
$1.76
-41%
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
Each employee generates -41% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
0.175503816
Assets/Capital per employee
Each employee generates 18% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
0.175503816
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
REIT�Residential
$39.89
MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST, INC. (XNYS:MPW)
VNO-PL
MAA-PI
VNO-PM
HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:HST)
JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED (XNYS:JLL)
EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:ELS)
W.P. CAREY INC. (XNYS:WPC)
Current Analyst Ratings
$0.48
Strong buy�21%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Income Statement
Period:
3/31/2022
Date:
Value
Revenue:
TTM
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
991.31M
444.68M
165%
-
58.52M
58.52M
-
399.14M
1.08B
-
114.46M
379.87M
155%
-
- 60978.00K
49%
-
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
70.01M
Differed Income Tax :
99.95M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
7.41M
Accounts Receivables:
- 18631.00K
Other Working Capital:
11.25M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
158.74M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
Value
3/31/2022
2022
Q1
56.63M
109.86M
166.49M
-
-
-
166.49M
-
120.28M
-
-
-
-
120.28M
10.62B
10.67B
394.09M
410.00M
-
-
-
804.09M
-
3.53B
3.53B
-
4.33B
3.48M
- 445709.00K
1.7M
Value
457.66M
6.87B
6.43B
10.76B
-
410.00M
-
-
- 512764.00K
- 512764.00K
-
-
-
-
369.24M
369.24M
-
15.21M
206.98M
191.77M
158.74M
- 24185.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
311.2364814
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
REIT�Residential
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
34.01116331
$34.01
$35.39
$36.83
$38.33