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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Zynga Inc. (XNAS:ZNGA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ZNGA
Name:
ZYNGA INC. (XNAS:ZNGA)
Sector:
- 214000.00K
Industry:
Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
CEO:
Mr. Frank Gibeau
Total Employees:
2,952
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 339.38% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ZYNGA INC.(ZNGA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ELECTRONIC GAMING & MULTIMEDIA INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
8.35
One Month Price Target:
$8.35
Six Month Price Target :
$8.36
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$8.4
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$7.84
This week:
$7.21
This month :
$6.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.30B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.14B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
40.67%
-18.22%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.71
$9.62
$5.99
$7.08
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$9.26
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.03
$7.43
$7.67
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ZNGA
Sharpe Ratio:
2.67%
Comparison:
ZNGA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 6.64% higher than the industry
& ratio is 17.31% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ZNGA
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.45%
Monthly returns:
1.79%
Yearly returns:
21.16%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1.27% above industry average
Classification:
ZNGA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.65
Statistical test of Returns:
ZNGA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.01%
Weekly Volatility:
6.72%
Monthly Volatility:
13.45%
Yearly Volatility:
46.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.09%
Weekly VaR:
-13.61%
Monthly VaR:
-27.22%
How Much Can the price of
ZNGA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-94.31%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.43
This translates to price declining to:
$0.48
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ZNGA is a 92.14% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 64.61% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.06% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ZNGA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.001
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.67
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.489
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.139
Beta is -96.78% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.604
Beta is -93.92% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.180
Alpha is 29.95% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1147% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ZNGA
Equity cost of capital:
0.034
Equity cost of capital is -53.32% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.08%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.81%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.22%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.22%
WACC is -46.32% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.47
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.27
Annual revenue growth rate is 208.34% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.44
-
-
Debt per share
$1.47
EBITDA per share
$0.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
ZNGA
P/E Ratio:
300.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
198.12
P/E ratio is 51.58% higher than main peers & is 803.97% higher than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.38
Price to sales ratio is -15.05% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.27
Price to free cash flow: 2.43
Price to free cash flow ratio is 68.40% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-671.80%
Net income growth rate is 1548.96% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
57.59%
Net debt to equity ratio:
29.79%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.56%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.77%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -31.90% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.26
Interest coverage ratio is -94.29% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
14.21%
Annual debt growth is 78% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.324
Statistical significance of correlation:
ZNGA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.384
Stock price is -15.66% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.384
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.042
Kurtosis
56.819
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
3.816
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ZNGA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
257%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.71%
Operating profit margin is -136.75% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
257%
Effective Tax Rate:
-7442.86%
Effective tax rate is -56989.83% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-3.63%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1700.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.80%
Return on assets (ROA) is -62.98% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.12
Current ratio is -73.22% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-2.6
Cash conversion cycle is -103.47% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 30.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-42.61%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
952.3K
Each employee generates 41% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
100.9K
Each employee generates -22% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 35.8K
Each employee generates -154% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 72.5K
Each employee generates -1112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates -1112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -23.51%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -638.68% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ZNGA
PLAYTIKA HOLDING CORP. (XNAS:PLTK)
NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NXST)
IRIDIUM COMMUNICATIONS INC. (XNAS:IRDM)
ANGI INC. (XNAS:ANGI)
JOYY INC. (XNAS:YY)
CARGURUS, INC. (XNAS:CARG)
iQIYI, Inc. (XNAS:IQ)
COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CCOI)
VEON Ltd. (XNAS:VEON)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�21%
Hold�29%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.81B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.01B
1.80B
517.60M
186.70M
1.14B
957.60M
-
1.66B
5.60M
47.60M
251.60M
297.80M
76.30M
- 105600.00K
- 1400.00K
104.20M
- 105600.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
69.20M
Differed Income Tax :
- 9300.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
45.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 315200.00K
Accounts Receivables:
8.20M
Other Working Capital:
4.30M
Other Non-Cash Items:
32.10M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 202700.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 10300.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 12600.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 2200.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
826.00M
10.50M
836.50M
233.40M
-
196.80M
1.27B
120.70M
3.59B
834.80M
-
-
51.00M
4.59B
-
5.86B
149.70M
17.90M
36.10M
746.40M
213.60M
1.13B
1.67B
67.70M
1.83B
-
2.95B
5.40B
- 2354200.00K
- 138300.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.67B
2.91B
5.86B
-
1.69B
865.6M
158.80M
- 141400.00K
- 7700.00K
-
7.30M
-
-
- 62300.00K
- 55000.00K
- 12600.00K
- 278000.00K
907.20M
1.19B
- 202700.00K
- 11300.00K
- 214000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ZNGA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$6.28
$6.29
$6.31
$6.32
$6.34