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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Zumiez Inc. (XNAS:ZUMZ) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ZUMZ
Name:
ZUMIEZ INC. (XNAS:ZUMZ)
Sector:
24.10M
Industry:
Apparel Retail
CEO:
Mr. Richard Brooks
Total Employees:
2,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -19.26% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ZUMIEZ INC.(ZUMZ) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.54
One Month Price Target:
$25.75
Six Month Price Target :
$26.81
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$28.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.39
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.7
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.67
This week:
$21.35
This month :
$17.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
510.42M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.69%
-14.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.24
$30.27
$16.84
$20.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$28.98
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.13
$22.09
$22.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ZUMZ
Sharpe Ratio:
0.39%
Comparison:
ZUMZ, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -43.46% lower than the industry
& is -82.80% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ZUMZ
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.46%
Yearly returns:
8.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -38.00% below industry average
Classification:
ZUMZ, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
ZUMZ has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.58%
Weekly Volatility:
8.01%
Monthly Volatility:
16.03%
Yearly Volatility:
55.52%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.89% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.34%
Weekly VaR:
-16.41%
Monthly VaR:
-32.81%
How Much Can the price of
ZUMZ
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.20
This translates to price declining to:
$3.83
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ZUMZ is a 131.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 98.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.65% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ZUMZ
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.48
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.869
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.228
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.14
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.788
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.585
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.816
Beta is -18.37% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.366
Beta is 8.46% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.92%
Sustainable growth rate is -46.31% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.078
Alpha is 114.09% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -497% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ZUMZ
Equity cost of capital:
0.133
Equity cost of capital is 6.33% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.23%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$57.84
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.85
Annual revenue growth rate is -34.65% below industry average
EPS:
$3.87
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
38.90%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 85.48% higher than the Apparel Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.85
-
-
Debt per share
$12.26
EBITDA per share
$7.64
Valuation Analysis Today of
ZUMZ
P/E Ratio:
6.72
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
40.8
P/E ratio is -83.54% lower than main peers & is -51.14% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $53.20
ZUMZ is -51.99% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.44
Price to sales ratio is -49.06% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.85
Price to free cash flow: 6.64
Price to free cash flow ratio is -35.19% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
181.41%
Net income growth rate is -392.79% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
41.00%
Net debt to equity ratio:
38.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.44%
Net debt to assets ratio:
22.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -63.59% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-9.64%
Annual debt growth is -104% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.469
Statistical significance of correlation:
ZUMZ has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.453
Stock price is 3.55% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.453
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.019
Kurtosis
2.75
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.639
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ZUMZ
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
150%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.02%
Operating profit margin is 48.54% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
150%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.68%
Effective tax rate is 1.18% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.90%
Return on equity (ROE) is -61.59% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.09%
Return on assets (ROA) is -13.10% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.93
Current ratio is 68.32% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-14.2
Cash conversion cycle is -129.70% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
450.2K
Each employee generates 15% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
59.4K
Each employee generates 21% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
37.0K
Each employee generates 45% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.6K
Each employee generates 45% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
180.4K
Each employee generates 45% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ZUMZ
WW International, Inc. (XNAS:WW)
SHOE CARNIVAL, INC. (XNAS:SCVL)
THE REALREAL, INC. (XNAS:REAL)
AMERICAN WOODMARK CORPORATION (XNAS:AMWD)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNI)
PLBY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PLBY)
BAOZUN INC. (XNAS:BZUN)
DENNY'S CORPORATION (XNAS:DENN)
BLINK CHARGING CO. (XNAS:BLNK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
1.13B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
699.55M
425.94M
-
-
301.91M
-
-
301.91M
3.11M
-
22.46M
148.62M
124.03M
92.51M
126.16M
33.66M
92.51M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.89M
Differed Income Tax :
4.06M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.74M
Change in Working Capital :
- 28953.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
17.80M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
26.93M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2825.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 60692.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/1/21
2022
Q1
81.50M
318.89M
400.39M
20.48M
136.50M
9.48M
566.85M
355.79M
61.31M
16.00M
-
6.17M
11.69M
450.95M
-
1.02B
75.61M
67.43M
3.70M
-
50.20M
193.25M
238.55M
4.22M
242.78M
-
436.02M
174.92M
406.41M
446.0K
-
May 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.00B
581.78M
1.02B
-
305.99M
224.5M
42.25M
-
- 21268.00K
-
-
-
-
1.55M
1.55M
766.00K
7.98M
88.67M
80.69M
26.93M
- 2825.00K
24.10M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ZUMZ
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.22
$89.50
$98.42
$108.22
$119.00