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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Zions Bancorporation, National Association (XNAS:ZION) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ZION
Name:
ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION (XNAS:ZION)
Sector:
288.00M
Industry:
-
CEO:
Mr. Harris Simmons
Total Employees:
9,685
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION(ZION) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND - INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
55.04
One Month Price Target:
$55.42
Six Month Price Target :
$57.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$59.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$54.8
Price Upper limit ($) :
$55.34
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$51.79
This week:
$47.77
This month :
$40.5
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.22B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
150.47M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.88%
-12.05%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.13
$63.20
$39.95
$46.88
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$60.94
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$59.47
$49.12
$50.61
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ZION
Sharpe Ratio:
1.63%
Comparison:
ZION, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
& is -28.69% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ZION
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.28%
Monthly returns:
1.12%
Yearly returns:
Comparison of returns:
Classification:
ZION, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
ZION has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.90%
Weekly Volatility:
6.49%
Monthly Volatility:
12.99%
Yearly Volatility:
44.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.91%
Weekly VaR:
-13.21%
Monthly VaR:
-26.42%
How Much Can the price of
ZION
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-91.51%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.53
This translates to price declining to:
$4.67
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ZION is a 86.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 59.74% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ZION
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.23
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.764
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.081
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.132
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.683
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.717
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.31
Beta is -6.22% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.019
-
Alpha is 120% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ZION
Equity cost of capital:
0.116
Equity cost of capital is above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.65%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.99%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.16%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.16%
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.37
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.32
-
EPS:
$6.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.81
-
-
Debt per share
$4.58
EBITDA per share
$11.24
Valuation Analysis Today of
ZION
P/E Ratio:
10.31
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.2
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.45
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.81
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.32
Price to free cash flow: 30.41
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.89%
Dividend yeild: 2.76%
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.38
Previous Dividend: $1.52
Expected next dividend best case: $0.40
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.36
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.35
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.18%
Expected next dividend payment date: 24/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 28/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 26/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 29/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-18--$0.38
2021-11-09--$0.38
2021-05-12--$0.34
2022-02-16--$0.38
2021-08-11--$0.38
2021-02-17--$0.34
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
9.96%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.76%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.69%
-
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
31.92
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.589
Statistical significance of correlation:
ZION has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.046
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.078
Kurtosis
7.59
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.8
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ZION
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.71%
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.46%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.48%
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.1
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.26%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
285.4K
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
174.7K
-
Profit generated per employee:
139.5K
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
29.7K
-
Assets/Capital per employee
119.8K
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ZION
SOFI TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:SOFI)
NEWHOLD INVESTMENT II UNT (XNAS:NHICU)
ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY (XNAS:ERIE)
EAST WEST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EWBC)
Upstart Holdings Inc (XNAS:UPST)
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLCP)
CREDIT ACCEPTANCE CORPORATION (XNAS:CACC)
MORINGA ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:MACAU)
EVO ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:EVOJU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�29%
Hold�50%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.76B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
857.00M
879.00M
22.00M
-
8.00M
2.26B
53.00M
8.00M
1.69B
-
1.35B
1.29B
280.00M
1.35B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
19.00M
Differed Income Tax :
39.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
17.00M
Change in Working Capital :
10.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
288.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 4682000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
700.00M
-
700.00M
-
-
-
700.00M
1.35B
-
-
829.00M
-
-
1.16B
91.59B
91.13B
-
638.00M
-
-
-
638.00M
689.00M
83.51B
84.19B
-
84.83B
151.35B
5.31B
- 1346000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
6.29B
91.13B
-
1.33B
627.0M
1.05B
4.56B
931.00M
-
6.00M
- 51000.00K
- 66000.00K
- 1003000.00K
- 1114000.00K
-
105.00M
700.00M
595.00M
288.00M
-
288.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ZION
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$44.69
$48.38
$52.37
$56.69
$61.38