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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Zillow Group, Inc. (XNAS:Z) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
Z
Name:
ZILLOW GROUP, INC. (XNAS:Z)
Sector:
3.35B
Industry:
Internet Content & Information
CEO:
Mr. Richard N. Barton
Total Employees:
5,791
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 402.70% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ZILLOW GROUP, INC.(Z) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
34.05
One Month Price Target:
$34.34
Six Month Price Target :
$35.77
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.49
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$33.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$34.32
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$31.05
This week:
$27.34
This month :
$20.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.35B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
245.16M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.47%
-24.92%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.99
$41.60
$20.11
$26.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$39.53
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.17
$28.56
$29.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
Z
Sharpe Ratio:
1.20%
Comparison:
Z, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 3735.56% higher than the industry
& is -47.37% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
Z
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.30%
Monthly returns:
1.21%
Yearly returns:
0.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 10740.66% above industry average
Classification:
Z, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
Z has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.32%
Weekly Volatility:
9.67%
Monthly Volatility:
19.33%
Yearly Volatility:
66.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.67%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -61.34% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.82%
Weekly VaR:
-19.72%
Monthly VaR:
-39.44%
How Much Can the price of
Z
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.41
This translates to price declining to:
$5.11
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
Z is a 178.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 138.45% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.56% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
Z
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.51
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.247
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.763
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.096
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.391
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.01
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.202
Beta is 25.21% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.399
Beta is 7.63% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.011
Alpha is -108.81% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 71% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
Z
Equity cost of capital:
0.135
Equity cost of capital is 5.74% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.80%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.72%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.72%
WACC is 2.79% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$45.63
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.74
Annual revenue growth rate is 160.44% above the industry average
EPS:
-$2.22
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.55%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -49.88% lower than the Internet Content & Information industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$7.39
EBITDA per share
-$0.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
Z
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.19
-
-
Z is -140.44% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.75
Price to sales ratio is -85.38% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.74
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
289.38%
Net income growth rate is -465.87% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
37.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
2.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.91% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1.05
Interest coverage ratio is -108.72% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
116.73%
Annual debt growth is -73% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 59.56%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.514
Statistical significance of correlation:
Z has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.473
Stock price is 8.56% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.473
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.068
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.172
Kurtosis
4.445
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.033
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
Z
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
82%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.20%
Operating profit margin is -667.38% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
82%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.85%
Effective tax rate is -93.37% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-11.74%
Return on equity (ROE) is 35.96% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-7.21%
Return on assets (ROA) is -564.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
3.99
Current ratio is 11.33% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
95.4
Cash conversion cycle is 41.07% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-16.14%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.9M
Each employee generates 116% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 35.7K
Each employee generates -134% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 97.3K
Each employee generates -319% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
579.2K
Each employee generates 478% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
523.2K
Each employee generates 478% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -8.43%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 43.32% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
Z
ZILLOW GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ZG)
Bilibili Inc. (XNAS:BILI)
DISCOVERY, INC. (XNAS:DISCK)
DISCOVERY, INC. (XNAS:DISCB)
LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC (XNAS:LBTYK)
LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC (XNAS:LBTYA)
LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC (XNAS:LBTYB)
NEWS CORPORATION (XNAS:NWSA)
NEWS CORPORATION (XNAS:NWS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
11.19B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.30B
1.88B
468.10M
467.32M
1.65B
1.19B
-
2.12B
-
196.36M
165.24M
- 206997.00K
- 358266.00K
- 563741.00K
- 568588.00K
- 4847.00K
- 563741.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
49.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
91.00M
Change in Working Capital :
3.19B
Accounts Receivables:
56.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 5000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
47.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.39B
Investments in PP&E:
- 33000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 525000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.59B
1.03B
3.63B
99.00M
494.00M
571.00M
4.79B
374.00M
2.37B
165.00M
-
-
117.00M
3.03B
-
7.82B
24.00M
901.00M
-
56.00M
221.00M
1.20B
1.81B
4.00M
1.82B
-
3.02B
-
- 1495000.00K
- 1000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
11.43B
4.80B
7.82B
-
2.71B
119.0M
-
- 5000.00K
- 563000.00K
- 2669000.00K
-
- 348000.00K
-
36.00M
- 2981000.00K
-
- 152000.00K
2.69B
2.84B
3.39B
- 38000.00K
3.35B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
Z
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$37.68
$17.94
$19.75
$21.75
$23.95