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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Yum! Brands, Inc. (XNYS:YUM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
YUM
Name:
YUM! BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:YUM)
Sector:
211.00M
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. David Gibbs
Total Employees:
36,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1928.77% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF YUM! BRANDS, INC.(YUM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
112.74
One Month Price Target:
$113.39
Six Month Price Target :
$116.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$120.54
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$112.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$113.16
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$108.18
This week:
$102.54
This month :
$92.35
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
32.03B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
284.54M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.25%
-11.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$133.90
$124.18
$91.58
$101.30
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$121.02
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.95
$104.43
$106.53
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
YUM
Sharpe Ratio:
1.45%
Comparison:
YUM, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -12.31% lower than the industry
& is -36.59% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
YUM
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.19%
Monthly returns:
0.75%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -43.69% below industry average
Classification:
YUM, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
YUM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.99%
Weekly Volatility:
4.44%
Monthly Volatility:
8.89%
Yearly Volatility:
30.79%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.90%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -4.24% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.04%
Weekly VaR:
-9.04%
Monthly VaR:
-18.09%
How Much Can the price of
YUM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-62.66%
This translates to price declining to:
$95.19
This translates to price declining to:
$42.10
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
YUM is a 27.66% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 9.36% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -43.09% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
YUM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.03
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.746
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.054
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-3.194
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.637
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.661
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.77
Beta is -41.81% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is -23.91% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.012
Alpha is -133.09% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -76% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
YUM
Equity cost of capital:
0.102
Equity cost of capital is -17.85% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-31.64%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.66%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.68%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.68%
WACC is -163.91% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$23.35
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-3.78
Annual revenue growth rate is 19.77% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.51
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 111.63% higher than the Restaurants industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.74
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 36.62%
Equity growth rate per share is -478.65% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$39.83
EBITDA per share
$8.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
YUM
P/E Ratio:
22.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.75
P/E ratio is -28.87% lower than main peers & is -4.56% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $130.37
YUM is -13.52% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $50.46
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $31.67
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.83
Price to sales ratio is 47.99% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-3.78
Price to free cash flow: 23.79
Price to free cash flow ratio is -48.72% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
8.90%
Net income growth rate is -94.89% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.01%
Dividend yeild: 1.90%
Previous Dividend: $0.57
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.57
Previous Dividend: $2.14
Expected next dividend best case: $0.61
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.53
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.49
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.23%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 17/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-26--$0.57
2021-11-24--$0.50
2021-05-27--$0.50
2022-02-17--$0.57
2021-08-26--$0.50
2021-02-11--$0.50
Dividend growth rate is -241.89% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-133.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-130.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
194.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
189.82%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 23.62% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.44
Interest coverage ratio is -74.91% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.73%
Annual debt growth is -87% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.13%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.683
Statistical significance of correlation:
YUM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is 32.18% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.021
Kurtosis
30.836
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.03
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
YUM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
192%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
31.68%
Operating profit margin is 236.97% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
192%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.90%
Effective tax rate is -94.81% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-19.41%
Return on equity (ROE) is -6164.08% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
28.34%
Return on assets (ROA) is 99.61% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.04
Current ratio is -7.28% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-109.4
Cash conversion cycle is -429.33% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.58%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
184.6K
Each employee generates 65% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
65.4K
Each employee generates 157% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
45.8K
Each employee generates 221% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.9K
Each employee generates 142% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
123.9K
Each employee generates 142% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
YUM
XPENG INC. (XNYS:XPEV)
AUTOZONE, INC. (XNYS:AZO)
HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:HLT)
D.R. HORTON, INC. (XNYS:DHI)
COUPANG, INC. (XNYS:CPNG)
APTIV PLC (XNYS:APTV)
CARVANA CO. (XNYS:CVNA)
NIO INC. (XNYS:NIO)
LENNAR CORPORATION (XNYS:LEN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�29%
Hold�54%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.65B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.46B
3.19B
-
1.11B
1.11B
-
-
1.11B
-
531.00M
162.00M
2.36B
2.11B
1.65B
1.66B
15.00M
1.65B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
37.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 77000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
26.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 131000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
253.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
24.00M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
365.00M
-
365.00M
565.00M
-
426.00M
1.36B
1.97B
656.00M
354.00M
122.00M
784.00M
572.00M
4.46B
-
5.82B
1.20B
73.00M
27.00M
-
27.00M
1.30B
11.33B
1.67B
13.01B
-
14.31B
-
- 8199000.00K
- 292000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.56B
- 8491000.00K
5.82B
-
11.41B
11.0B
-
- 53000.00K
- 29000.00K
- 15000.00K
-
- 343000.00K
- 165000.00K
146.00M
- 377000.00K
-
- 153000.00K
618.00M
771.00M
253.00M
- 42000.00K
211.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
YUM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$155.61
$166.38
$177.89
$190.21
$203.38