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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Yeti Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:YETI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
YETI
Name:
YETI HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:YETI)
Sector:
- 104661.00K
Industry:
Leisure
CEO:
Mr. Matthew Reintjes
Total Employees:
823
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1577.74% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF YETI HOLDINGS, INC.(YETI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LEISURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.7
One Month Price Target:
$36.2
Six Month Price Target :
$38.7
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$41.69
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.95
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.08
This week:
$29.84
This month :
$23.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.05B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
86.18M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.7%
-18.76%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.86
$42.26
$23.54
$29.14
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$40.44
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.25
$30.94
$32.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
YETI
Sharpe Ratio:
2.02%
Comparison:
YETI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 13.88% higher than the industry
& is -11.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
YETI
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.64%
Yearly returns:
16.56%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 18.73% above industry average
Classification:
YETI, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.54
Statistical test of Returns:
YETI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.61%
Weekly Volatility:
8.08%
Monthly Volatility:
16.16%
Yearly Volatility:
55.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.51% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.34%
Weekly VaR:
-16.41%
Monthly VaR:
-32.82%
How Much Can the price of
YETI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.67
This translates to price declining to:
$5.36
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
YETI is a 131.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 98.45% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 8.09% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
YETI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.234
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.745
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.988
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.229
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.91
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.555
Beta is 60.66% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.42
Beta is 75.92% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
56.40%
Sustainable growth rate is 32.82% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.006
Alpha is -116.48% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -39% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
YETI
Equity cost of capital:
0.203
Equity cost of capital is 57.35% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
16.13%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.80%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.42%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.42%
WACC is 101.15% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.91
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.89
Annual revenue growth rate is -25.12% below industry average
EPS:
$2.34
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
59.63%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 93.82% higher than the Leisure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.35
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -892.41% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$1.68
EBITDA per share
$3.47
Valuation Analysis Today of
YETI
P/E Ratio:
15.93
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.14
P/E ratio is 42.95% higher than main peers & is -62.87% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $100.39
YETI is -64.44% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.11
Price to sales ratio is -29.74% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.89
Price to free cash flow: 102.34
Price to free cash flow ratio is 16.17% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
872.89%
Net income growth rate is 422.39% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
32.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
18.01%
Debt to assets ratio:
14.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.29%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -76.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
92.08
Interest coverage ratio is 22.90% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.18%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.612
Statistical significance of correlation:
YETI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.567
Stock price is 7.93% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.567
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.043
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.091
Kurtosis
4.08
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.018
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
YETI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
226%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
18.41%
Operating profit margin is 322.18% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
226%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.99%
Effective tax rate is 3.98% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
46.54%
Return on equity (ROE) is 88.89% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
21.43%
Return on assets (ROA) is 237.86% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.82
Current ratio is -17.63% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-40.8
Cash conversion cycle is -162.58% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.29%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 141% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
363.7K
Each employee generates 149% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
252.4K
Each employee generates 246% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 127.2K
Each employee generates 342% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
405.3K
Each employee generates 342% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
YETI
SKECHERS U.S.A., INC. (XNYS:SKX)
HANESBRANDS INC. (XNYS:HBI)
TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:TPX)
DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC. (XNYS:DKS)
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (XNYS:HOG)
BOYD GAMING CORPORATION (XNYS:BYD)
THOR INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:THO)
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION (XNYS:VAC)
MINISO GROUP HOLDING LIMITED (XNYS:MNSO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�21%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
1.46B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
631.27M
825.79M
-
-
557.61M
-
-
557.61M
-
3.25M
33.16M
299.35M
268.18M
207.74M
262.94M
55.20M
207.74M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.65M
Differed Income Tax :
5.07M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.75M
Change in Working Capital :
- 131239.00K
Accounts Receivables:
27.40M
Other Working Capital:
- 622.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1449.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 88556.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 12669.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
100.33M
-
100.33M
82.99M
413.04M
39.58M
635.94M
179.66M
54.29M
97.09M
-
-
2.55M
333.59M
-
969.53M
167.41M
35.90M
17.51M
-
146.76M
350.07M
144.82M
28.28M
173.10M
-
523.16M
878.00K
204.52M
- 211.0K
241.18M
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.19B
446.37M
969.53M
-
180.72M
80.4M
-
- 3436.00K
- 16105.00K
- 6323.00K
-
- 100025.00K
-
- 1280.00K
- 107628.00K
430.00K
- 211859.00K
100.33M
312.19M
- 88556.00K
- 16105.00K
- 104661.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
YETI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$51.34
$59.96
$70.02
$81.77
$95.50