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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Yellow Corporation (XNAS:YELL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
YELL
Name:
YELLOW CORPORATION (XNAS:YELL)
Sector:
- 69900.00K
Industry:
Trucking
CEO:
Mr. Darren Hawkins
Total Employees:
32,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -113.35% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF YELLOW CORPORATION(YELL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRUCKING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.2
One Month Price Target:
$6.31
Six Month Price Target :
$6.85
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.5
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.29
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.34
This week:
$4.28
This month :
$2.35
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
327.32M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
74.59%
-31.9%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.19
$8.33
$2.21
$4.07
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.33
$4.67
$5.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
YELL
Sharpe Ratio:
4.65%
Comparison:
YELL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 45.21% higher than the industry
& ratio is 104.10% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
YELL
Daily returns:
0.33%
Weekly returns:
1.65%
Monthly returns:
6.62%
Yearly returns:
31.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 152.11% above industry average
Classification:
YELL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.33
Statistical test of Returns:
YELL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.92%
Weekly Volatility:
15.47%
Monthly Volatility:
30.94%
Yearly Volatility:
107.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.89%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -43.85% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.88%
Weekly VaR:
-31.04%
Monthly VaR:
-62.07%
How Much Can the price of
YELL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-51%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.03
This translates to price declining to:
$0.93
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
YELL is a 338.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 275.32% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 112.50% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
YELL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--3.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.443
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.04
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.987
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.798
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.165
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.243
Beta is 151.53% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.38
Beta is 126.48% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
35.27%
Sustainable growth rate is 56.99% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.548
Alpha is 190.33% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3489% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
YELL
Equity cost of capital:
0.246
Equity cost of capital is 94.88% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-7.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.83%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.98%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.98%
WACC is 21.45% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$100.41
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-0.83
Annual revenue growth rate is -126.48% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.44
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-11.77%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -130.42% lower than the Trucking industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$30.71
EBITDA per share
$6.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
YELL
P/E Ratio:
9.95
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
565.52
P/E ratio is -98.24% lower than main peers & is -39.81% lower than the industry
-
YELL is -126.04% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.06
Price to sales ratio is -99.66% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-0.83
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-527.26%
Net income growth rate is -9345.81% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-409.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-385.91%
Debt to assets ratio:
65.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
62.07%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 38.10% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.12
Interest coverage ratio is -98.56% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.56%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.239
Statistical significance of correlation:
YELL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is -47.02% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.107
Kurtosis
22.992
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.457
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
YELL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
34%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.71%
Operating profit margin is -100.24% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
34%
Effective Tax Rate:
-1.66%
Effective tax rate is -107.37% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.95%
Return on equity (ROE) is 13.65% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-3.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is -144.77% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.9x
Current Ratio:
1.23
Current ratio is -70.66% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
33.5
Cash conversion cycle is 15.68% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
162.0K
Each employee generates -39% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
10.1K
Each employee generates -80% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 2.3K
Each employee generates -110% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.2K
Each employee generates -140% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
42.8K
Each employee generates -140% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
YELL
KIMBALL ELECTRONICS, INC. (XNAS:KE)
CASS INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CASS)
RILYH
TBLTW
Air T Funding (XNAS:AIRTP)
HAYNES INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:HAYN)
BLADE AIR MOBILITY, INC. (XNAS:BLDE)
XONE
TPI COMPOSITES, INC. (XNAS:TPIC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.18B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.74B
445.10M
-
-
-
-
310.50M
310.50M
-
152.50M
242.40M
322.80M
140.40M
- 73300.00K
- 72100.00K
1.20M
- 73300.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
35.70M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.30M
Change in Working Capital :
- 47500.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 77500.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.50M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 33500.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 36400.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
233.80M
-
233.80M
741.30M
-
62.30M
1.04B
1.30B
-
-
-
1.40M
63.80M
1.37B
-
2.41B
210.60M
141.30M
77.60M
-
494.30M
846.20M
1.59B
360.80M
1.95B
-
2.79B
500.00K
- 2502500.00K
- 182300.0K
2.30B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.05B
- 386900.00K
2.41B
-
1.73B
1.5B
-
6.60M
- 29800.00K
- 8900.00K
-
-
-
- 500.00K
- 9400.00K
-
- 72700.00K
242.10M
314.80M
- 33500.00K
- 36400.00K
- 69900.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
YELL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.52
$9.10
$11.02
$13.33
$16.13