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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Xpo Logistics, Inc. (XNYS:XPO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
XPO
Name:
XPO LOGISTICS, INC. (XNYS:XPO)
Sector:
64.00M
Industry:
Integrated Freight & Logistics
CEO:
Mr. Bradley Jacobs
Total Employees:
43,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 12.29% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF XPO LOGISTICS, INC.(XPO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
52.5
One Month Price Target:
$53.11
Six Month Price Target :
$56.15
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$59.81
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$52.23
Price Upper limit ($) :
$52.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.84
This week:
$44.3
This month :
$36.11
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
115.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.8%
-25.22%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$69.50
$61.69
$35.50
$43.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$59.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.47
$45.84
$47.53
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
XPO
Sharpe Ratio:
1.89%
Comparison:
XPO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -39.64% lower than the industry
& is -16.97% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
XPO
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.37%
Monthly returns:
1.48%
Yearly returns:
21.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -16.46% below industry average
Classification:
XPO, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
XPO has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.44%
Weekly Volatility:
7.68%
Monthly Volatility:
15.36%
Yearly Volatility:
53.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.03%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.94% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.98%
Weekly VaR:
-15.61%
Monthly VaR:
-31.22%
How Much Can the price of
XPO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$38.45
This translates to price declining to:
$7.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
XPO is a 120.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 88.77% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 36.78% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
XPO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.07
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.306
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.847
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.744
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.19
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.935
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.301
Beta is 59.22% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.068
Beta is 94.08% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.11%
Sustainable growth rate is -38.01% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.004
Alpha is -96.45% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 24% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
XPO
Equity cost of capital:
0.173
Equity cost of capital is 65.75% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.23%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.30%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.39%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.39%
WACC is 37.49% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$131.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -100.96% below industry average
EPS:
$6.11
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-10.52%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -127.64% lower than the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.82
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -1687.08% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$30.94
EBITDA per share
$12.99
Valuation Analysis Today of
XPO
P/E Ratio:
7.83
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.97
P/E ratio is -68.66% lower than main peers & is -51.22% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $98.02
XPO is -46.44% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.4
Price to sales ratio is -74.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.78
Price to free cash flow: 13.75
Price to free cash flow ratio is -80.02% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
6.45%
Net income growth rate is -97.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
222.72%
Net debt to equity ratio:
210.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.17%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -80.15% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.95
Interest coverage ratio is -78.25% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
42.26%
Annual debt growth is -12% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.45%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.685
Statistical significance of correlation:
XPO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.551
Stock price is 24.24% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.551
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.025
Kurtosis
6.774
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.204
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
XPO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
62%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.64%
Operating profit margin is 55.96% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
62%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.88%
Effective tax rate is -15.01% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
44.37%
Return on equity (ROE) is 37.55% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.61%
Return on assets (ROA) is -211.91% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.04
Current ratio is -50.29% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
16.4
Cash conversion cycle is -97.13% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.13%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
352.1K
Each employee generates -65% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
34.7K
Each employee generates -48% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
16.5K
Each employee generates -39% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.5K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
134.1K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
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Competitors/Peer firms of
XPO
CAE Inc. (XNYS:CAE)
OSHKOSH CORPORATION (XNYS:OSK)
TOPBUILD CORP. (XNYS:BLD)
DUN & BRADSTREET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:DNB)
Regal Rexnord Corporation (XNYS:RRX)
ITT INC. (XNYS:ITT)
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:HII)
NIELSEN HOLDINGS PLC (XNYS:NLSN)
ACUITY BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:AYI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�50%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
15.14B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
12.78B
2.36B
-
-
1.60B
-
-
1.60B
-
188.00M
400.00M
1.49B
1.16B
709.00M
991.00M
197.00M
709.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
116.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 12000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
8.00M
Change in Working Capital :
36.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 405000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 436000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
201.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 137000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
705.00M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.00B
-
1.00B
2.25B
-
303.00M
3.56B
2.62B
2.33B
548.00M
-
-
268.00M
5.77B
-
9.32B
1.33B
816.00M
-
-
1.29B
3.43B
3.56B
431.00M
4.29B
-
7.72B
-
531.00M
- 109000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
14.37B
1.60B
9.32B
-
4.38B
3.4B
-
3.00M
571.00M
- 16000.00K
-
-
-
- 8000.00K
- 24000.00K
- 3000.00K
745.00M
1.02B
273.00M
201.00M
- 137000.00K
64.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
XPO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$60.11
$93.65
$106.69
$121.55
$138.47