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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Xperi Holding Corporation (XNAS:XPER) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
XPER
Name:
XPERI HOLDING CORPORATION (XNAS:XPER)
Sector:
41.80M
Industry:
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
CEO:
Mr. Jon Kirchner
Total Employees:
2,250
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -62.70% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF XPERI HOLDING CORPORATION(XPER) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
15.63
One Month Price Target:
$15.71
Six Month Price Target :
$16.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.54
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$15.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$15.71
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$14.65
This week:
$13.43
This month :
$11.23
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.63B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
104.27M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.5%
-19.22%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.20
$18.12
$11.06
$13.14
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$17.44
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.99
$13.82
$14.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
XPER
Sharpe Ratio:
0.17%
Comparison:
XPER, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -93.90% lower than the industry
& is -92.58% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
XPER
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.28%
Yearly returns:
28.31%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -88.09% below industry average
Classification:
XPER, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.77
Statistical test of Returns:
XPER has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.07%
Weekly Volatility:
6.87%
Monthly Volatility:
13.74%
Yearly Volatility:
47.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.37%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.45% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.30%
Weekly VaR:
-14.08%
Monthly VaR:
-28.15%
How Much Can the price of
XPER
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.76
This translates to price declining to:
$2.34
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
XPER is a 98.70% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 70.22% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -17.98% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
XPER
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.691
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.978
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-1.594
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.569
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.68
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.361
Beta is -36.26% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.394
Beta is -37.79% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.24%
Sustainable growth rate is -67.96% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.057
Alpha is -136.65% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -364% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
XPER
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -28.42% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-16.71%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.38%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.46%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.46%
WACC is -32.17% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.2
Annual revenue growth rate is -51.99% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.34
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-26.71%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -185.96% lower than the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.31
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -68.45%
Equity growth rate per share is -389.20% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$7.41
EBITDA per share
$2.58
Valuation Analysis Today of
XPER
P/E Ratio:
13.18
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.35
P/E ratio is -60.48% lower than main peers & is -54.07% lower than the industry
-
XPER is -260.18% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $5.67
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.12
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.78
Price to sales ratio is -72.13% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.2
Price to free cash flow: 6.77
Price to free cash flow ratio is -83.47% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
11209.49%
Net income growth rate is 1538.79% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -14.58%
Dividend yeild: 1.28%
Previous Dividend: $0.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Expected next dividend best case: $0.11
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.01
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -7.50%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 28/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 21/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 29/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.05
2021-11-26--$0.05
2021-05-24--$0.05
2022-03-15--$0.05
2021-08-23--$0.05
2021-03-15--$0.05
Dividend growth rate is -27.28% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
56.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
44.74%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.15%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.63%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -37.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.45
Interest coverage ratio is -61.72% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.33%
Annual debt growth is -642% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.382
Statistical significance of correlation:
XPER has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is -36.72% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.027
Kurtosis
15.29
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.381
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
XPER
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
344%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.17%
Operating profit margin is -237.50% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
344%
Effective Tax Rate:
372.88%
Effective tax rate is 2766.98% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2.62%
Return on equity (ROE) is -118.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.44%
Return on assets (ROA) is -116.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
2.71
Current ratio is -38.34% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
37.3
Cash conversion cycle is -36.03% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-46.94%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
406.0K
Each employee generates -31% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
119.4K
Each employee generates -29% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 15.9K
Each employee generates -115% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.6K
Each employee generates 8% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
865.5K
Each employee generates 8% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 18.98%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -19.80% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
XPER
CYXTERA TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:CYXT)
CORSAIR GAMING, INC. (XNAS:CRSR)
INFINERA CORPORATION (XNAS:INFN)
ARRAY TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:ARRY)
PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION (XNAS:PRGS)
CSG SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:CSGS)
IMPINJ, INC. (XNAS:PI)
EXTREME NETWORKS, INC. (XNAS:EXTR)
FORMULA SYSTEMS (1985) LTD (XNAS:FORTY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
913.52M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
126.32M
787.20M
236.37M
-
269.07M
-
214.51M
719.95M
-
36.09M
214.51M
268.72M
56.38M
- 35801.00K
14.46M
53.93M
- 35801.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
45.19M
Differed Income Tax :
- 911.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
16.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 40764.00K
Accounts Receivables:
43.70M
Other Working Capital:
10.80M
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.98M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
46.27M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4289.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 4490.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
214.10M
52.72M
266.82M
221.98M
6.79M
35.95M
531.53M
124.76M
850.10M
778.68M
-
3.91M
189.85M
1.95B
-
2.48B
11.84M
52.43M
-
48.91M
83.26M
196.44M
772.26M
102.27M
927.74M
-
1.12B
116.00K
207.54M
- 1766.0K
1.16B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
846.28M
1.36B
2.49B
-
824.69M
610.6M
12.02M
- 180.00K
3.06M
- 10125.00K
-
- 28328.00K
- 5218.00K
8.00M
- 35671.00K
- 692.00K
12.97M
214.10M
201.12M
46.27M
- 4469.00K
41.80M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
XPER
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.62
$12.25
$12.96
$13.72
$14.52