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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Xencor, Inc. (XNAS:XNCR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
XNCR
Name:
XENCOR, INC. (XNAS:XNCR)
Sector:
2.82M
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Bassil Dahiyat
Total Employees:
254
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -49.52% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF XENCOR, INC.(XNCR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26.55
One Month Price Target:
$26.64
Six Month Price Target :
$27.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$26.71
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$24.66
This week:
$22.33
This month :
$18.11
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.49B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
59.70M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
37.75%
-21.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.31
$31.32
$17.79
$21.78
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.18
$23.06
$23.92
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
XNCR
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.08%
Comparison:
XNCR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -104.22% lower than the industry
& is -103.60% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
XNCR
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.12%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -94.28% below industry average
Classification:
XNCR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.96
Statistical test of Returns:
XNCR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.46%
Weekly Volatility:
7.74%
Monthly Volatility:
15.48%
Yearly Volatility:
53.63%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.57%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -25.65% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.10%
Weekly VaR:
-15.89%
Monthly VaR:
-31.77%
How Much Can the price of
XNCR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.11
This translates to price declining to:
$3.98
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
XNCR is a 124.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 92.10% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -27.18% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
XNCR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.697
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.986
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.035
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.002
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.71
Beta is -13.79% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -46.86% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.58%
Sustainable growth rate is -96.99% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.059
Alpha is -141.60% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -376% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
XNCR
Equity cost of capital:
0.073
Equity cost of capital is -33.49% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.87%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.48%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.48%
WACC is -21.67% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.47
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.08
Annual revenue growth rate is -5.93% below industry average
EPS:
$1.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
41.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 319.34% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.03
-
-
Debt per share
$0.57
EBITDA per share
$1.97
Valuation Analysis Today of
XNCR
P/E Ratio:
81.44
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.58
P/E ratio is 295.68% higher than main peers & is -9.23% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $157.92
XNCR is -83.19% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.85
Price to sales ratio is -88.02% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.08
Price to free cash flow: 842.10
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-210.65%
Net income growth rate is -398.44% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-5.68%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.61% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
179.78
Interest coverage ratio is -251.91% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.511
Statistical significance of correlation:
XNCR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 50.35% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.053
Kurtosis
22.351
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.508
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
XNCR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
26.30%
Operating profit margin is -106.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.25%
Return on equity (ROE) is -124.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.67%
Return on assets (ROA) is -162.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
8.3
Current ratio is 2.56% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.94%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
462.2K
Each employee generates 20% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
428.0K
Each employee generates 234% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.1K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 13.37%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -472.71% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
XNCR
HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HRMY)
CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:CORT)
SCHRODINGER, INC. (XNAS:SDGR)
BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. (XNAS:BBIO)
LUMIRADX LIMITED (XNAS:LMDX)
TURNING POINT THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:TPTX)
BURFORD CAPITAL LIMITED (XNYS:BUR)
NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS (XNAS:NKTR)
Valneva SE (XNAS:VALN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
326.64M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
198.85M
41.88M
41.88M
-
-
240.74M
1.29M
653.00K
8.03M
117.40M
85.91M
108.71M
108.71M
-
108.71M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.18M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
10.81M
Change in Working Capital :
- 35162.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 26820.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 70.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.40M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.82M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2089.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 88764.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
78.27M
311.49M
389.76M
93.20M
-
23.01M
505.97M
59.33M
-
-
270.30M
-
5.61M
351.95M
-
857.92M
11.91M
936.00K
-
35.49M
12.61M
60.94M
33.96M
-
33.96M
-
94.90M
596.00K
- 259510.00K
- 7121.0K
1.03B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
240.74M
763.02M
857.92M
581.79M
34.89M
- 43373.0K
20.00M
- 906.00K
- 71759.00K
-
-
-
-
731.00K
731.00K
-
- 65213.00K
78.27M
143.48M
5.82M
- 2995.00K
2.82M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
XNCR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$27.78
$84.28
$87.75
$91.36
$95.11