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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Xcel Energy Inc. (XNAS:XEL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
XEL
Name:
Xcel Energy Inc. (XNAS:XEL)
Sector:
- 2055000.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Electric
CEO:
Mr. Benjamin Fowke
Total Employees:
11,321
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -12.74% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF XCEL ENERGY INC.(XEL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED ELECTRIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
74.41
One Month Price Target:
$74.56
Six Month Price Target :
$75.29
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$76.17
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$74.22
Price Upper limit ($) :
$74.67
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$71.72
This week:
$68.39
This month :
$62.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
40.72B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
546.99M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.26%
-12.69%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$86.90
$81.15
$61.92
$67.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$79.28
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.05
$69.52
$70.77
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
XEL
Sharpe Ratio:
1.87%
Comparison:
XEL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 59.52% higher than the industry
& is -18.01% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
XEL
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.84%
Yearly returns:
7.85%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 28.92% above industry average
Classification:
XEL, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.83
Statistical test of Returns:
XEL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.78%
Weekly Volatility:
3.99%
Monthly Volatility:
7.97%
Yearly Volatility:
27.61%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -23.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.62%
Weekly VaR:
-8.09%
Monthly VaR:
-16.18%
How Much Can the price of
XEL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-56.05%
This translates to price declining to:
$64.12
This translates to price declining to:
$32.70
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
XEL is a 14.20% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -2.17% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -12.17% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
XEL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.464
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.656
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.139
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.46
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.664
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.835
Beta is -57.86% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.5
Beta is -29.60% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.09%
Sustainable growth rate is 17.21% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.046
Alpha is 257.45% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 290% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
XEL
Equity cost of capital:
0.056
Equity cost of capital is -15.42% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.20%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.20%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.53%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.53%
WACC is -18.72% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$24.94
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.59
Annual revenue growth rate is -1167.80% below industry average
EPS:
$2.98
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.89%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -162.86% lower than the Utilities�Regulated Electric industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 24.19%
Equity growth rate per share is 312.29% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$41.37
EBITDA per share
$8.43
Valuation Analysis Today of
XEL
P/E Ratio:
24.74
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29.81
P/E ratio is -17.02% lower than main peers & is -10.66% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $82.51
XEL is -9.82% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $85.16
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $52.99
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.98
Price to sales ratio is 2.78% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.59
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
22.80%
Net income growth rate is -874.07% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 57.89%
Dividend yeild: 2.54%
Previous Dividend: $0.49
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.49
Previous Dividend: $1.89
Expected next dividend best case: $0.51
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.47
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.45
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.92%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.49
2021-12-21--$0.46
2021-06-14--$0.46
2022-03-14--$0.49
2021-09-14--$0.46
2021-03-12--$0.46
Dividend growth rate is -292.01% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
143.83%
Net debt to equity ratio:
156.29%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -37.91% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.85
Interest coverage ratio is 127.08% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.38%
Annual debt growth is -75% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 1.81%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.606
Statistical significance of correlation:
XEL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.597
Stock price is 1.55% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.597
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.029
Kurtosis
11.82
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.432
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
XEL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
156%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.17%
Operating profit margin is 39.00% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
156%
Effective Tax Rate:
-6.46%
Effective tax rate is -132.08% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.27%
Return on equity (ROE) is 12.93% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.79%
Return on assets (ROA) is 20.45% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.75
Current ratio is -68.60% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-28.3
Cash conversion cycle is -129.97% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 31.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.92%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates -56% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
407.5K
Each employee generates -65% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
142.7K
Each employee generates -65% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 181.5K
Each employee generates 451% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.8M
Each employee generates 451% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
XEL
EXELON CORPORATION (XNAS:EXC)
ALLIANT ENERGY CORPORATION (XNAS:LNT)
NEW FORTRESS ENERGY INC. (XNAS:NFE)
MGE ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:MGEE)
Otter Tail Corporation (XNAS:OTTR)
RENEW ENERGY GLOBAL PLC (XNAS:RNW)
MIDDLESEX WATER COMPANY (XNAS:MSEX)
Fluence Energy Inc (XNAS:FLNC)
THE YORK WATER COMPANY (XNAS:YORW)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
13.64B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.31B
5.33B
-
-
-
-
3.12B
3.12B
-
789.00M
2.31B
4.61B
2.21B
1.62B
1.52B
- 98000.00K
1.62B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.26B
Differed Income Tax :
- 79000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
31.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1444000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 164000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1108000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 173000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.19B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 757000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
90.00M
-
90.00M
1.91B
505.00M
1.52B
4.02B
47.08B
-
-
3.49B
-
3.40B
53.96B
-
57.99B
1.26B
2.05B
685.00M
-
2.05B
5.35B
22.63B
9.21B
36.90B
-
42.25B
1.36B
6.69B
- 116000.0K
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
11.44B
15.73B
57.99B
-
24.68B
24.6B
743.00M
- 4273000.00K
- 4287000.00K
- 417000.00K
366.00M
-
- 935000.00K
3.12B
2.14B
-
37.00M
166.00M
129.00M
2.19B
- 4244000.00K
- 2055000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
XEL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$89.82
$91.95
$94.12
$96.34
$98.62