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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
X Financial (XNYS:XYF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
X
Name:
X Financial (XNYS:XYF)
Sector:
422.00M
Industry:
Steel
CEO:
Mr. David Burritt
Total Employees:
424
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.02% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF X FINANCIAL(XYF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND STEEL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.48
One Month Price Target:
$2.49
Six Month Price Target :
$2.53
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$2.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.45
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.1
This week:
$1.63
This month :
$.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
135.36M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
18.28M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
75.88%
-23.08%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.25
$3.44
$0.71
$1.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.17
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.00
$1.79
$1.96
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
X
Sharpe Ratio:
1.79%
Comparison:
X, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -52.66% lower than the industry
& is -21.43% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
X
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.72%
Monthly returns:
2.88%
Yearly returns:
34.75%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -0.39% below industry average
Classification:
X, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.6
Statistical test of Returns:
X has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
7.56%
Weekly Volatility:
16.90%
Monthly Volatility:
33.80%
Yearly Volatility:
117.09%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.22%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.60% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-15.38%
Weekly VaR:
-34.39%
Monthly VaR:
-68.77%
How Much Can the price of
X
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-59%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.01
This translates to price declining to:
$0.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
X is a 385.41% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 315.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 90.05% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
X
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.571
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.808
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.429
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.427
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
-0.048
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.323
Beta is -55.14% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.33
Beta is -55.37% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
62.35%
Sustainable growth rate is 30.55% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.274
Alpha is 21.83% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1744% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
X
Equity cost of capital:
0.072
Equity cost of capital is -41.15% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.21%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.51%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.15%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.15%
WACC is -29.80% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1,194.74
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0
Annual revenue growth rate is -72.65% below industry average
EPS:
$17.26
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$13.66
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 461.38% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$221.17
EBITDA per share
$352.82
Valuation Analysis Today of
X
P/E Ratio:
1.15
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.5
P/E ratio is -96.46% lower than main peers & is -73.44% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $74.70
X is -96.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0
Price to sales ratio is -99.66% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0
Price to free cash flow: 0.18
Price to free cash flow ratio is -83.48% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
236.12%
Net income growth rate is 65.40% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 6.45%
Previous Dividend: $0.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.16
Expected next dividend best case: $0.07
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.03
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.02
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 32.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.05
2021-11-05--$0.05
2021-05-07--$0.01
2022-02-04--$0.05
2021-08-06--$0.01
2021-02-05--$0.01
Dividend growth rate is -206.13% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
41.70%
Net debt to equity ratio:
13.34%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.04%
Net debt to assets ratio:
6.73%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
23.8
Interest coverage ratio is -30.09% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.15%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.055
Statistical significance of correlation:
X does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.523
Stock price is -89.50% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.523
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.078
Kurtosis
17.912
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.43
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
X
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
119%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
24.46%
Operating profit margin is 66.59% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
119%
Effective Tax Rate:
7.71%
Effective tax rate is -58.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
51.20%
Return on equity (ROE) is 2.41% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
25.83%
Return on assets (ROA) is 33.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.9
Current ratio is -27.61% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-21.7
Cash conversion cycle is -156.68% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
51.5M
Each employee generates 434% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
15.2M
Each employee generates 452% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
11.7M
Each employee generates 454% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
995.3K
Each employee generates 424% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
25.6M
Each employee generates 424% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
X
KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION (XNYS:KGC)
EAGLE MATERIALS INC. (XNYS:EXP)
MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC. (XNYS:MDU)
Braskem SA (XNYS:BAK)
HUNTSMAN CORPORATION (XNYS:HUN)
ASHLAND INC. (XNYS:ASH)
ELEMENT SOLUTIONS INC (XNYS:ESI)
THE CHEMOURS COMPANY (XNYS:CC)
National Steel Company (XNYS:SID)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�21%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
21.85B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
15.28B
6.56B
-
-
441.00M
-
778.00M
1.22B
4.00M
271.00M
800.00M
6.45B
5.34B
4.97B
5.38B
415.00M
4.97B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
121.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 349000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
113.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
117.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
771.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.87B
-
2.87B
2.42B
2.66B
436.00M
8.38B
7.59B
920.00M
509.00M
727.00M
24.00M
1.07B
10.84B
-
19.22B
3.34B
116.00M
492.00M
-
946.00M
4.41B
4.04B
195.00M
5.03B
-
9.43B
282.00M
4.43B
322.0M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
16.50B
9.70B
19.13B
-
4.16B
1.3B
-
- 352000.00K
- 352000.00K
- 6000.00K
-
- 123000.00K
-
58.00M
- 71000.00K
- 7000.00K
341.00M
2.94B
2.60B
771.00M
- 349000.00K
422.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
X
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$2.59
$152.67
$158.76
$165.09
$171.67