_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (XNYS:WH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WH
Name:
WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (XNYS:WH)
Sector:
125.00M
Industry:
Lodging
CEO:
Mr. Geoffrey Ballotti
Total Employees:
8,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -166.25% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC.(WH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LODGING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
65.46
One Month Price Target:
$66.
Six Month Price Target :
$68.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$71.97
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$65.16
Price Upper limit ($) :
$65.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$61.43
This week:
$56.45
This month :
$47.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.76B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
90.33M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.3%
-21.4%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$84.16
$75.57
$46.76
$55.35
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$72.77
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.94
$58.13
$59.98
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WH
Sharpe Ratio:
1.78%
Comparison:
WH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 2.81% higher than the industry
& is -21.88% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WH
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.26%
Yearly returns:
13.99%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 7.67% above industry average
Classification:
WH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.7
Statistical test of Returns:
WH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.03%
Weekly Volatility:
6.77%
Monthly Volatility:
13.55%
Yearly Volatility:
46.93%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -46.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.16%
Weekly VaR:
-13.77%
Monthly VaR:
-27.54%
How Much Can the price of
WH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$49.99
This translates to price declining to:
$9.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WH is a 94.38% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 66.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.81% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.48
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.024
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.448
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.639
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.936
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.806
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.163
Beta is 27.25% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.404
Beta is 5.40% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.04%
Sustainable growth rate is -89.22% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.018
Alpha is 45.24% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 113% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WH
Equity cost of capital:
0.133
Equity cost of capital is 4.07% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.74%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.09%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.23%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.23%
WACC is 2.54% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.1
Annual revenue growth rate is -42.69% below industry average
EPS:
$3.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.84%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -8786.52% lower than the Lodging industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.81
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -53.03%
Equity growth rate per share is -33.81% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$22.78
EBITDA per share
$6.86
Valuation Analysis Today of
WH
P/E Ratio:
17.44
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.55
P/E ratio is -46.40% lower than main peers & is -68.12% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $190.42
WH is -65.62% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $187.56
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $94.53
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.62
Price to sales ratio is -36.12% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.1
Price to free cash flow: 13.62
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
60.45%
Net income growth rate is -355.73% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.20%
Dividend yeild: 1.83%
Previous Dividend: $0.32
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.32
Previous Dividend: $1.20
Expected next dividend best case: $0.41
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.23
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.22
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 11.87%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.32
2021-12-14--$0.32
2021-06-15--$0.16
2022-03-18--$0.32
2021-09-14--$0.24
2021-03-16--$0.16
Dividend growth rate is -124.11% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
177.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
143.49%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.95%
Net debt to assets ratio:
38.75%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -29.01% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.29
Interest coverage ratio is -512.29% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-19.72%
Annual debt growth is -3353% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.19%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.645
Statistical significance of correlation:
WH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.611
Stock price is 5.59% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.611
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.043
Kurtosis
10.559
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.273
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
212%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
33.21%
Operating profit margin is 570.30% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
212%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.91%
Effective tax rate is -72.13% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.13%
Return on equity (ROE) is -61.26% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is 156.31% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
2.13
Current ratio is 32.83% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
37.5
Cash conversion cycle is -7.89% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
204.0K
Each employee generates -17% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
77.5K
Each employee generates -17% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
40.8K
Each employee generates -28% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
15.6K
Each employee generates 67% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
435.3K
Each employee generates 67% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WH
SONOCO PRODUCTS COMPANY (XNYS:SON)
PLANET FITNESS, INC. (XNYS:PLNT)
GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR INC. (XNYS:GIL)
TERMINIX GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:TMX)
PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:PAG)
ARAD LTD. (XTAE:ARD)
MINISO GROUP HOLDING LIMITED (XNYS:MNSO)
CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:CHH)
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION (XNYS:VAC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.63B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
766.00M
866.00M
-
118.00M
118.00M
-
235.00M
353.00M
-
85.00M
95.00M
620.00M
542.00M
326.00M
440.00M
114.00M
326.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 26000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
8.00M
Change in Working Capital :
60.00M
Accounts Receivables:
17.00M
Other Working Capital:
19.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 37000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
135.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 10000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
416.00M
-
416.00M
229.00M
-
165.00M
810.00M
106.00M
1.53B
1.58B
-
-
272.00M
3.48B
-
4.29B
27.00M
21.00M
-
84.00M
248.00M
380.00M
2.06B
176.00M
2.75B
-
3.13B
1.00M
155.00M
16.0M
987.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.12B
1.16B
4.29B
-
2.08B
1.7B
-
202.00M
192.00M
- 4000.00K
-
- 39000.00K
- 30000.00K
- 9000.00K
- 82000.00K
-
245.00M
416.00M
171.00M
135.00M
- 10000.00K
125.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$72.33
$105.33
$115.80
$127.32
$139.99