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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ww International, Inc. (XNAS:WW) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WW
Name:
WW International, Inc. (XNAS:WW)
Sector:
- 19682.00K
Industry:
Personal Services
CEO:
Ms. Mindy Grossman
Total Employees:
7,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -78.27% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WW INTERNATIONAL, INC.(WW) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PERSONAL SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.13
One Month Price Target:
$5.18
Six Month Price Target :
$5.4
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$5.68
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.16
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$4.62
This week:
$3.99
This month :
$2.85
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
361.77M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
70.38M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.66%
-28.41%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.50
$6.45
$2.76
$3.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.10
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.88
$4.16
$4.38
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WW
Sharpe Ratio:
-4.02%
Comparison:
WW, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -1511.67% lower than the industry
& is -276.19% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WW
Daily returns:
-0.18%
Weekly returns:
-0.91%
Monthly returns:
-3.64%
Yearly returns:
0.17%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -25612.41% below industry average
Classification:
WW, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.18
Statistical test of Returns:
WW has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.76%
Weekly Volatility:
10.64%
Monthly Volatility:
21.27%
Yearly Volatility:
73.69%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.03%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -36.24% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.95%
Weekly VaR:
-22.25%
Monthly VaR:
-44.51%
How Much Can the price of
WW
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-41%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.00
This translates to price declining to:
$0.77
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WW is a 214.12% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 169.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 68.12% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WW
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.753
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.065
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.902
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.14
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.897
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.413
Beta is 12.29% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.861
Beta is 84.22% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.577
Alpha is 550.35% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -3676% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WW
Equity cost of capital:
0.140
Equity cost of capital is 54.91% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-7.97%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.04%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.04%
WACC is -40.87% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.74
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-0.8
Annual revenue growth rate is -100.40% below industry average
EPS:
$1.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-18.88%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -9360.44% lower than the Personal Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.65
-
-
Debt per share
$21.24
EBITDA per share
$3.07
Valuation Analysis Today of
WW
P/E Ratio:
5.73
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
56.69
P/E ratio is -89.90% lower than main peers & is -86.15% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $45.08
WW is -88.62% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.31
Price to sales ratio is -91.28% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-0.8
Price to free cash flow: 3.10
Price to free cash flow ratio is -75.72% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-56.49%
Net income growth rate is -81.75% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-332.65%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-308.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
105.30%
Net debt to assets ratio:
97.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 28.00% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.79
Interest coverage ratio is -96.05% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-5.91%
Annual debt growth is -243% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.45
Statistical significance of correlation:
WW has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.482
Stock price is -6.52% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.482
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.063
Kurtosis
8.492
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.429
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WW
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
242%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.18%
Operating profit margin is 51.26% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
242%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.05%
Effective tax rate is -28.54% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-17.11%
Return on equity (ROE) is -89.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.42%
Return on assets (ROA) is -30.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-18.9x
Current Ratio:
1.19
Current ratio is 16.75% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
4.5
Cash conversion cycle is -76.60% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.11%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
153.0K
Each employee generates -62% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
28.1K
Each employee generates -73% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
10.0K
Each employee generates -86% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.6K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
150.9K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WW
BAOZUN INC. (XNAS:BZUN)
DREAM FINDERS HOMES, INC. (XNAS:DFH)
GrowGeneration Corp. (XNAS:GRWG)
BLOOMIN' BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:BLMN)
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHB)
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHA)
GENTHERM INCORPORATED (XNAS:THRM)
THE ODP CORPORATION (XNAS:ODP)
PACTIV EVERGREEN INC. (XNAS:PTVE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.18B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
465.41M
713.02M
-
258.50M
510.60M
252.09M
-
510.60M
-
77.46M
46.13M
216.26M
202.42M
76.88M
92.68M
15.80M
76.88M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.76M
Differed Income Tax :
- 6693.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 14222.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 1250.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.25M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 10454.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 4350.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
127.64M
-
127.64M
39.27M
29.50M
61.22M
257.63M
120.99M
163.35M
848.12M
-
11.50M
17.83M
1.16B
-
1.42B
29.34M
18.97M
618.00K
48.99M
119.37M
216.66M
1.49B
2.66M
1.65B
-
1.87B
-
2.68B
- 7662.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
976.01M
- 449329.00K
1.42B
-
1.51B
1.4B
-
- 9239.00K
- 13589.00K
-
-
-
-
- 409.00K
- 409.00K
- 1702.00K
- 26154.00K
127.64M
153.79M
- 10454.00K
- 9228.00K
- 19682.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WW
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.71
$19.20
$21.24
$23.51
$26.01