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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Workhorse Group Inc. (XNAS:WKHS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WKHS
Name:
WORKHORSE GROUP INC. (XNAS:WKHS)
Sector:
- 34338.32K
Industry:
Auto Manufacturers
CEO:
Mr. Duane Hughes
Total Employees:
221
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 242.46% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WORKHORSE GROUP INC.(WKHS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO MANUFACTURERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.99
One Month Price Target:
$3.04
Six Month Price Target :
$3.29
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.96
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.03
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.56
This week:
$2.04
This month :
$1.09
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
481.40M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
163.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
46.57%
-47.46%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.97
$4.05
$1.01
$1.93
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.75
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.56
$2.23
$2.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WKHS
Sharpe Ratio:
3.49%
Comparison:
WKHS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -4.74% lower than the industry
& ratio is 53.02% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WKHS
Daily returns:
0.26%
Weekly returns:
1.28%
Monthly returns:
5.10%
Yearly returns:
42.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 43.15% above industry average
Classification:
WKHS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.52
Statistical test of Returns:
WKHS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
7.06%
Weekly Volatility:
15.79%
Monthly Volatility:
31.57%
Yearly Volatility:
109.38%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-14.24%
Weekly VaR:
-31.85%
Monthly VaR:
-63.70%
How Much Can the price of
WKHS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-53%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.39
This translates to price declining to:
$0.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WKHS is a 349.63% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 285.19% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 62.22% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WKHS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.31
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.853
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
2.453
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.134
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.616
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.848
Beta is 59.44% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.758
Beta is 67.58% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.63%
Sustainable growth rate is -49.09% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.379
Alpha is 37.40% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2412% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WKHS
Equity cost of capital:
0.233
Equity cost of capital is 53.57% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
19.43%
Before-tax cost of debt:
39.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
31.36%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
31.36%
WACC is 96.41% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-$0.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.13
Annual revenue growth rate is 948.88% above the industry average
EPS:
-$2.23
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
77.94%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -61.81% lower than the Auto Manufacturers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.19
EBITDA per share
-$1.78
Valuation Analysis Today of
WKHS
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.76
-
-
WKHS is -103.23% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
-360.34
Price to sales ratio is -1050.56% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.13
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
496.42%
Net income growth rate is -89.62% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
20.38%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-85.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
15.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-64.07%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -71.91% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-22.43
Interest coverage ratio is -10.50% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-86.81%
Annual debt growth is -262% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.20%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.23
Statistical significance of correlation:
WKHS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.49
Stock price is -53.04% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.49
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.085
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.349
Kurtosis
6.486
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.49
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WKHS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-35669%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14734.27%
Operating profit margin is 1921.21% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-35669%
Effective Tax Rate:
1.41%
Effective tax rate is -78.46% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-193.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1433.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-144.56%
Return on assets (ROA) is -9713.06% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
8.78
Current ratio is 86.04% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-12.5
Cash conversion cycle is -105.81% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-0.78%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
- 6.1K
Each employee generates -101% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1322.0K
Each employee generates 657% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1370.6K
Each employee generates 504% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 155.4K
Each employee generates 442% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
94.5K
Each employee generates 442% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 26.90%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -167.70% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
WKHS
Playa Hotels & Resorts NV (XNAS:PLYA)
Golden Entertainment, Inc. (XNAS:GDEN)
THE CHILDREN'S PLACE, INC. (XNAS:PLCE)
FUNKO, INC. (XNAS:FNKO)
DENNY'S CORPORATION (XNAS:DENN)
GREEN BRICK PARTNERS, INC. (XNYS:GRBK)
LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP (XNAS:RIDE)
HIBBETT, INC. (XNAS:HIBB)
MONARCH CASINO & RESORT, INC. (XNAS:MCRI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
- 1358.68K
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
130.19M
- 131548.85K
11.76M
-
45.19M
-
11.70M
68.64M
-
13.03M
1.92M
- 292163.75K
- 200191.98K
- 302892.58K
- 298223.66K
- 4214.60K
- 302892.58K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
319.98K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.35M
Change in Working Capital :
- 13958.50K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 268.45K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.60M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 30742.48K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
167.05M
-
167.05M
51.43K
12.68M
8.87M
188.65M
20.75M
-
-
-
-
126.31K
20.88M
-
209.53M
6.26M
975.47K
-
-
14.26M
21.50M
31.84M
-
31.84M
-
53.33M
151.99K
- 532429.38K
-
688.47M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
198.83M
156.19M
209.53M
-
32.81M
- 134236.3K
-
- 3595.84K
- 3595.84K
- 64.93K
-
-
-
- 196.26K
- 261.20K
-
- 34599.52K
167.05M
201.65M
- 30742.48K
- 3595.84K
- 34338.32K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WKHS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$3.59
$4.30
$5.15
$6.17
$7.40