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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Woodward, Inc. (XNAS:WWD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WWD
Name:
WOODWARD, INC. (XNAS:WWD)
Sector:
26.17M
Industry:
Aerospace & Defense
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Gendron
Total Employees:
7,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -887.27% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WOODWARD, INC.(WWD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AEROSPACE & DEFENSE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
92.01
One Month Price Target:
$92.78
Six Month Price Target :
$96.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$101.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$91.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$92.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$86.31
This week:
$79.27
This month :
$66.52
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.56B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
60.16M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.33%
-18.31%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.47
$106.44
$65.55
$77.58
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$102.52
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$99.95
$81.46
$84.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WWD
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.20%
Comparison:
WWD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -118.89% lower than the industry
& is -108.99% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WWD
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.05%
Yearly returns:
10.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -93.88% below industry average
Classification:
WWD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.1
Statistical test of Returns:
WWD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.02%
Weekly Volatility:
6.75%
Monthly Volatility:
13.49%
Yearly Volatility:
46.74%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.28%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -90.71% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.19%
Weekly VaR:
-13.85%
Monthly VaR:
-27.70%
How Much Can the price of
WWD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$69.49
This translates to price declining to:
$13.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WWD is a 95.51% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 67.49% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.45% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WWD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.49
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.848
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.2
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.161
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.72
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.029
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.427
Beta is 4.22% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.007
Beta is 47.69% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.05%
Sustainable growth rate is -64.63% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.127
Alpha is -3317.41% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -808% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WWD
Equity cost of capital:
0.133
Equity cost of capital is 32.74% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.41%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.50%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.56%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.56%
WACC is 44.93% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$37.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.49
Annual revenue growth rate is -107.02% below industry average
EPS:
$2.71
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-10.44%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -238.04% lower than the Aerospace & Defense industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.91
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 2.99%
Equity growth rate per share is -1820.39% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$12.40
EBITDA per share
$6.16
Valuation Analysis Today of
WWD
P/E Ratio:
35.37
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
90.13
P/E ratio is -60.76% lower than main peers & is -24.74% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $127.35
WWD is -27.75% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $147.28
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $52.25
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.45
Price to sales ratio is -74.19% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.49
Price to free cash flow: 23.53
Price to free cash flow ratio is -59.29% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
12.39%
Net income growth rate is 309.39% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.79%
Dividend yeild: 0.77%
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.70
Expected next dividend best case: $0.24
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.14
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 11.83%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-16--$0.19
2021-11-12--$0.16
2021-05-17--$0.16
2022-02-17--$0.19
2021-08-13--$0.16
2021-02-19--$0.16
Dividend growth rate is -189.50% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
33.56%
Net debt to equity ratio:
14.41%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -65.54% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.02
Interest coverage ratio is 32.47% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-10.60%
Annual debt growth is -112% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.05%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.576
Statistical significance of correlation:
WWD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is 6.42% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.041
Kurtosis
7.777
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.14
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WWD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.70%
Operating profit margin is -101.95% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.35%
Effective tax rate is -31.10% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.96%
Return on equity (ROE) is 0.50% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is 2.70% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
4.39
Current ratio is 38.68% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
72
Cash conversion cycle is -87.51% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.72%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
313.2K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
51.5K
Each employee generates 37% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
24.6K
Each employee generates 282% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.6K
Each employee generates -257% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
359.5K
Each employee generates -257% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -12.05%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 6835.84% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
WWD
ENTXW
SAIA, INC. (XNAS:SAIA)
AGBAW
ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD (XNAS:ESLT)
KORNIT DIGITAL LTD (XNAS:KRNT)
RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED (XNAS:ROLL)
TuSimple Holdings Inc (XNAS:TSP)
TETRA TECH, INC. (XNAS:TTEK)
LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LECO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.26B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.73B
523.85M
115.24M
41.19M
189.92M
-
-
305.17M
1.86M
33.63M
125.30M
370.50M
218.69M
176.98M
211.57M
34.59M
176.98M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.72M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
11.89M
Change in Working Capital :
- 32090.00K
Accounts Receivables:
55.91M
Other Working Capital:
14.10M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1538.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
39.29M
Investments in PP&E:
- 13123.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
426.08M
-
426.08M
515.14M
451.83M
53.68M
1.45B
934.40M
800.02M
538.78M
-
13.97M
301.33M
2.59B
-
4.04B
165.87M
424.00K
36.18M
30.07M
133.15M
329.51M
746.12M
190.57M
1.48B
-
1.81B
106.00K
2.62B
- 65404.0K
- 331841.00K
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
2.04B
2.22B
4.04B
-
746.54M
320.5M
7.00K
1.00K
- 13115.00K
- 381.00K
3.20M
- 39258.00K
- 10247.00K
-
- 46688.00K
- 967.00K
- 21480.00K
426.98M
448.46M
39.29M
- 13123.00K
26.17M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WWD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$101.71
$153.33
$168.65
$185.51
$204.04