Wolfspeed, Inc. (XNYS:WOLF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

WOLF

Name:

Wolfspeed, Inc. (XNYS:WOLF)

Sector:

- 322800.00K

Industry:

Semiconductors

CEO:

Total Employees:

4,017

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

D

Technological advancement compared to industry is -391.32% lower

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WOLFSPEED, INC.(WOLF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

108.91

One Month Price Target:

$109.87

Six Month Price Target :

$114.67

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$120.43

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$108.33

Price Upper limit ($) :

$109.98

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$99.21

                                                               This week:

$87.23

                                                        This month :

$65.54

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

13.54B

Market Cap Classification:

Mid Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

124.10M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

33.2%

-17.52%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$153.85

$132.87

$63.97

$84.95

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$126.04

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$121.56

$91.72

$96.26

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

WOLF

Sharpe Ratio:

4.83%

Comparison:

WOLF, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is 55.94% higher than the industry

& ratio is 111.84% higher than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

WOLF

Daily returns:

0.22%

Weekly returns:

1.12%

Monthly returns:

4.47%

Yearly returns:

31.95%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 67.87% above industry average

Classification:

WOLF, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.84

Statistical test of Returns:

WOLF has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

4.44%

Weekly Volatility:

9.94%

Monthly Volatility:

19.88%

Yearly Volatility:

68.85%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

0.63%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -85.80% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-8.90%

Weekly VaR:

-19.91%

Monthly VaR:

-39.82%

How Much Can the price of

WOLF

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-33%

Worst case (decline):

>85%

This translates to price declining to:

$73.36

This translates to price declining to:

$16.34

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

WOLF is a 181.05% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 140.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is 25.23% above industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

WOLF

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.57

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

1.137

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

1.607

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

1.101

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

1.641

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

1.037

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

-

-

Average Industry Beta: 

1.41

Beta is 11.63% above industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

-

-

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

0.397

Alpha is 107.45% above industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 2527% higher than market/& is unsustainably high

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

WOLF

Equity cost of capital:

0.139

Equity cost of capital is 8.77% above industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

9.75%

Before-tax cost of debt:

2.49%

After-tax cost of debt:

1.96%

Overall debt rating:

Highest AAA investment grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

1.96%

WACC is 3.65% above industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$5.35

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

6.63

Annual revenue growth rate is -331.61% below industry average

EPS:

-$130,765.00

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

1.77%

Expected future EPS growth rate is -96.60% lower than the Semiconductors industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

-

-

-

Debt per share

$6.80

EBITDA per share

-$1.98

Valuation Analysis Today of

WOLF

P/E Ratio:

0

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

-

- & is higher than the industry

-

WOLF is -100.00% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

-

-

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

20.37

Price to sales ratio is 150.62% above the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

6.63

-

-

Net income growth rate (3Y):

69.04%

Net income growth rate is -220.53% lower than the industry average net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

-

Dividend yeild: 0.00%

Previous Dividend: $0.00

Previous adjusted dividend: $0.00

Previous Dividend: $0.00

-

-

Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.00

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Dividend History:

2021-09-24--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

-

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

41.40%

Net debt to equity ratio:

29.00%

Debt to assets ratio:

25.99%

Net debt to assets ratio:

18.21%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -33.33% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

-11.61

Interest coverage ratio is -135.41% less than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

5.05%

Annual debt growth is -94% lower than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.33%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.623

Statistical significance of correlation:

WOLF has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.627

Stock price is -0.65% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.627

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

-0.005

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

-0.012

Kurtosis 

9.173

Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

1.168

Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

WOLF

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

129%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

-49.10%

Operating profit margin is -308.70% lower than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

129%

Effective Tax Rate:

-3.78%

Effective tax rate is -125.07% lower than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

-18.68%

Return on equity (ROE) is -165.31% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

-11.72%

Return on assets (ROA) is -189.07% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.4x

Current Ratio:

3.86

Current ratio is -4.91% below industry average

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

71.5

Cash conversion cycle is 29.63% above industry average

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.5 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

-3.83%

In-depth Efficiency  Analysis