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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Winmark Corporation (XNAS:WINA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WINA
Name:
Winmark Corporation (XNAS:WINA)
Sector:
13.33M
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Mr. Brett Heffes
Total Employees:
85
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 54.51% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WINMARK CORPORATION(WINA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
210.94
One Month Price Target:
$211.9
Six Month Price Target :
$216.69
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$222.45
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$210.22
Price Upper limit ($) :
$211.89
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$200.98
This week:
$188.67
This month :
$166.41
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
725.15M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
3.44M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.57%
-16.65%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$257.14
$235.88
$164.74
$186.00
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$228.96
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$224.43
$192.86
$197.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WINA
Sharpe Ratio:
1.93%
Comparison:
WINA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -32.55% lower than the industry
& is -15.36% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WINA
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.07%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -63.09% below industry average
Classification:
WINA, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.88
Statistical test of Returns:
WINA has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.32%
Weekly Volatility:
5.20%
Monthly Volatility:
10.40%
Yearly Volatility:
36.01%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.98%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 71.13% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.72%
Weekly VaR:
-10.56%
Monthly VaR:
-21.11%
How Much Can the price of
WINA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-73.13%
This translates to price declining to:
$172.86
This translates to price declining to:
$56.67
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WINA is a 49.01% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 27.65% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -44.03% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WINA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.81
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.476
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.673
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
3.111
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.356
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.574
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.857
Beta is -56.28% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is -43.23% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.042
Alpha is -80.99% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 266% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WINA
Equity cost of capital:
0.087
Equity cost of capital is -32.71% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
33.39%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.04%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.04%
WACC is -371.78% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$23.16
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-11.03
Annual revenue growth rate is -58.09% below industry average
EPS:
$10.74
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.78%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -77.90% lower than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$13.10
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 1492.10%
Equity growth rate per share is 2809.41% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$17.63
EBITDA per share
$15.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
WINA
P/E Ratio:
19.28
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.47
P/E ratio is -42.39% lower than main peers & is -10.36% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $231.02
WINA is -8.69% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.11
Price to sales ratio is 123.93% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-11.03
Price to free cash flow: 16.10
Price to free cash flow ratio is -24.46% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
38.04%
Net income growth rate is -108.04% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.02%
Dividend yeild: 4.53%
Previous Dividend: $0.70
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.70
Previous Dividend: $9.55
Expected next dividend best case: $2.67
Expected next dividend worst case: -$1.27
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 303.62%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/12/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 13/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.70
2021-11-09--$7.50
2021-05-11--$0.45
2022-02-08--$0.45
2021-08-10--$0.45
2021-02-09--$0.25
Dividend growth rate is -135977.66% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-92.15%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-98.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
396.87%
Net debt to assets ratio:
422.70%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 448.51% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
31.49
Interest coverage ratio is 27.15% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
81.72%
Annual debt growth is 16% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.81%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.341
Statistical significance of correlation:
WINA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is -28.23% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.029
Kurtosis
5.262
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.647
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WINA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
375%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
65.47%
Operating profit margin is 907.02% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
375%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.79%
Effective tax rate is -12.24% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-61.52%
Return on equity (ROE) is -4424.77% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
264.96%
Return on assets (ROA) is 2747.74% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-0.3x
Current Ratio:
0.47
Current ratio is -75.36% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-145.5
Cash conversion cycle is -325.01% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 22.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
936.6K
Each employee generates 27% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
621.1K
Each employee generates 157% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
476.0K
Each employee generates 221% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
156.8K
Each employee generates 279% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
110.4K
Each employee generates 279% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WINA
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (XNAS:BLBD)
CARPARTS.COM, INC. (XNAS:PRTS)
GAN LIMITED (XNAS:GAN)
LANDS' END, INC. (XNAS:LE)
BIG 5 SPORTING GOODS CORPORATION (XNAS:BGFV)
CARLOTZ, INC. (XNAS:LOTZ)
OneWater Marine Inc (XNAS:ONEW)
RCI HOSPITALITY HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:RICK)
LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LIND)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
79.61M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.92M
74.68M
-
-
22.73M
-
- 166.80K
22.57M
4.90K
1.68M
669.70K
52.79M
52.12M
40.46M
50.45M
9.98M
40.46M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
162.80K
Differed Income Tax :
- 113.20K
Stock Based Compensation :
421.60K
Change in Working Capital :
2.41M
Accounts Receivables:
- 369.90K
Other Working Capital:
2.74M
Other Non-Cash Items:
616.90K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
13.35M
Investments in PP&E:
- 21.50K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/26/22
2022
Q1
287.50K
2.59M
2.88M
1.47M
492.30K
1.04M
5.89M
4.82M
607.50K
-
165.00K
3.37M
428.70K
9.38M
-
15.27M
1.90M
4.23M
2.37M
1.63M
4.89M
12.65M
60.60M
950.00K
68.39M
-
81.04M
-
- 65767.70K
-
-
March 26, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
27.49M
- 65767.70K
15.27M
2.76M
64.84M
64.6M
-
-
- 21.50K
- 3062.50K
-
- 36591.40K
- 1625.30K
16.86M
- 24420.90K
-
- 11094.50K
342.50K
11.44M
13.35M
- 21.50K
13.33M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WINA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$223.56
$307.59
$324.37
$342.07
$360.72