_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Wingstop Inc. (XNAS:WING) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WING
Name:
WINGSTOP INC. (XNAS:WING)
Sector:
14.07M
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. Charles Morrison
Total Employees:
890
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 846.91% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WINGSTOP INC.(WING) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
120.98
One Month Price Target:
$122.14
Six Month Price Target :
$127.92
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$134.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$120.41
Price Upper limit ($) :
$121.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$112.67
This week:
$102.39
This month :
$83.8
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.95B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
29.91M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.18%
-21.24%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$159.53
$141.71
$82.43
$100.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$135.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$132.10
$106.00
$109.86
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WING
Sharpe Ratio:
2.96%
Comparison:
WING, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 79.86% higher than the industry
& ratio is 30.06% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WING
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.55%
Monthly returns:
2.19%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 64.27% above industry average
Classification:
WING, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.58
Statistical test of Returns:
WING has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.40%
Weekly Volatility:
7.60%
Monthly Volatility:
15.20%
Yearly Volatility:
52.66%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.76%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -18.70% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.87%
Weekly VaR:
-15.36%
Monthly VaR:
-30.73%
How Much Can the price of
WING
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$89.63
This translates to price declining to:
$18.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WING is a 116.89% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 85.81% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.67% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WING
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.71
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.037
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.467
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-9.727
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.061
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.691
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.327
Beta is 28.65% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is 26.08% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.115
Alpha is 219.25% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 730% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WING
Equity cost of capital:
0.148
Equity cost of capital is 19.47% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-84.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.15%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.70%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.70%
WACC is -191.17% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.63
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-8.53
Annual revenue growth rate is 319.97% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.28
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
26.59%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 674.94% higher than the Restaurants industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.76
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -89.74%
Equity growth rate per share is 827.76% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$23.77
EBITDA per share
$2.61
Valuation Analysis Today of
WING
P/E Ratio:
90.2
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.81
P/E ratio is 166.78% higher than main peers & is 281.23% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $30.29
WING is 299.46% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
12.57
Price to sales ratio is 285.18% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-8.53
Price to free cash flow: 159.99
Price to free cash flow ratio is 63.56% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
93.95%
Net income growth rate is -46.03% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.87%
Dividend yeild: 3.73%
Previous Dividend: $0.17
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.17
Previous Dividend: $4.51
Expected next dividend best case: $1.65
Expected next dividend worst case: -$1.31
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.93
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 558.01%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$0.17
2021-11-18--$0.17
2021-05-13--$0.14
2022-03-23--$4.00
2021-08-12--$0.17
2021-03-04--$0.14
Dividend growth rate is -24613.21% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-167.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-101.07%
Debt to assets ratio:
140.14%
Net debt to assets ratio:
84.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -11.08% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.08
Interest coverage ratio is -71.27% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.23%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.494
Statistical significance of correlation:
WING has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is -4.46% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.05
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.098
Kurtosis
6.331
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.242
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WING
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
199%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
24.50%
Operating profit margin is 160.60% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
199%
Effective Tax Rate:
29.86%
Effective tax rate is 71.92% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-9.00%
Return on equity (ROE) is -2911.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.52%
Return on assets (ROA) is -46.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-2.5x
Current Ratio:
1.89
Current ratio is 68.45% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-25.4
Cash conversion cycle is -176.40% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
323.6K
Each employee generates 189% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
87.9K
Each employee generates 245% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
42.9K
Each employee generates 201% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
15.8K
Each employee generates 554% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
205.7K
Each employee generates 554% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WING
STITCH FIX, INC. (XNAS:SFIX)
FRONTDOOR, INC. (XNAS:FTDR)
NIKOLA CORPORATION (XNAS:NKLA)
NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EYE)
LGI HOMES, INC. (XNAS:LGIH)
THE GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COMPANY (XNAS:GT)
DRIVEN BRANDS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DRVN)
SILGAN HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:SLGN)
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (XNAS:CBRL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�17%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
288.02M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
144.94M
143.08M
-
-
67.20M
-
8.38M
75.57M
-
15.39M
8.38M
78.19M
70.56M
38.17M
54.42M
16.25M
38.17M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.23M
Differed Income Tax :
- 490.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.19M
Change in Working Capital :
6.13M
Accounts Receivables:
608.00K
Other Working Capital:
8.28M
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.63M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
20.37M
Investments in PP&E:
- 6293.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
287.01M
-
287.01M
6.39M
-
30.84M
324.23M
57.31M
56.88M
42.68M
-
-
26.19M
183.06M
-
507.30M
4.93M
4.85M
-
-
161.59M
171.37M
710.92M
15.40M
760.16M
-
931.52M
299.00K
- 424613.00K
- 322.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
220.51M
- 424227.00K
507.30M
-
715.77M
428.8M
-
1.48M
- 4814.00K
-
-
-
- 5294.00K
244.39M
239.09M
-
254.64M
309.55M
54.91M
20.37M
- 6293.00K
14.07M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WING
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$134.52
$149.95
$167.15
$186.33
$207.70