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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Weyerhaeuser Company (XNYS:WY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WY
Name:
WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY (XNYS:WY)
Sector:
869.00M
Industry:
REIT�Specialty
CEO:
Mr. Devin Stockfish
Total Employees:
9,214
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 7.71% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY(WY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�SPECIALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
33.87
One Month Price Target:
$34.15
Six Month Price Target :
$35.56
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$33.72
Price Upper limit ($) :
$34.06
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$31.81
This week:
$29.27
This month :
$24.67
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
24.84B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
740.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.32%
-22.67%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.42
$39.03
$24.32
$28.71
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.60
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.66
$30.13
$31.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WY
Sharpe Ratio:
1.91%
Comparison:
WY, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -3.07% lower than the industry
& is -16.09% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WY
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.33%
Monthly returns:
1.32%
Yearly returns:
14.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 7.32% above industry average
Classification:
WY, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
WY has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.99%
Weekly Volatility:
6.69%
Monthly Volatility:
13.38%
Yearly Volatility:
46.34%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.23%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -58.91% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.08%
Weekly VaR:
-13.59%
Monthly VaR:
-27.18%
How Much Can the price of
WY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-94.14%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.99
This translates to price declining to:
$1.98
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WY is a 91.81% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 64.32% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.51% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.49
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.989
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.398
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.071
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.099
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.239
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.079
Beta is 37.85% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.954
Beta is 55.97% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.24%
Sustainable growth rate is 59.46% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.025
Alpha is -50.61% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 160% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WY
Equity cost of capital:
0.133
Equity cost of capital is 37.76% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.61%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.78%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.78%
WACC is 78.59% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.60
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.45
Annual revenue growth rate is 122.17% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.63
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -10.25%
Equity growth rate per share is -182.59% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.83
EBITDA per share
$5.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
WY
P/E Ratio:
10.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
34.63
P/E ratio is -70.20% lower than main peers & is -87.58% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $298.39
WY is -88.65% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.32
Price to sales ratio is -68.13% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.45
Price to free cash flow: 9.32
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
252.09%
Net income growth rate is -5.80% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 45.16%
Dividend yeild: 5.85%
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.18
Previous Dividend: $1.98
Expected next dividend best case: $0.50
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.14
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.35
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 74.35%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.18
2022-02-17--$1.45
2021-10-04--$0.50
2022-03-03--$0.18
2021-12-02--$0.17
2021-09-02--$0.17
Dividend growth rate is 44.31% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
49.36%
Net debt to equity ratio:
37.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
29.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
22.62%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -61.65% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.73
Interest coverage ratio is 160.19% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-6.87%
Annual debt growth is -329% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 19.23%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.777
Statistical significance of correlation:
WY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is 28.68% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.052
Kurtosis
18.107
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.061
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
161%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
37.30%
Operating profit margin is 106.36% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
161%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.28%
Effective tax rate is 99.43% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.35%
Return on equity (ROE) is 43.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.76%
Return on assets (ROA) is 208.34% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.82
Current ratio is 60.20% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
12.6
Cash conversion cycle is -72.01% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 18.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.30%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates -85% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
457.3K
Each employee generates -93% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
292.7K
Each employee generates -90% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
94.3K
Each employee generates -93% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates -93% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WY
NRZ-PC
EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC. (XNYS:EXR)
ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC. (XNYS:ARE)
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:AVB)
INVITATION HOMES INC. (XNYS:INVH)
CBRE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:CBRE)
MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:MAA)
Ke Holdings Inc (XNYS:BEKE)
DUKE REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:DRE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�8%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
10.81B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.32B
4.49B
5.00M
398.00M
496.00M
98.00M
3.00M
504.00M
4.00M
307.00M
481.00M
4.21B
4.03B
2.70B
3.43B
729.00M
2.70B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
14.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 278000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
110.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
442.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
957.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.21B
-
1.21B
753.00M
611.00M
206.00M
2.78B
2.48B
-
-
-
15.00M
11.85B
14.34B
-
17.12B
310.00M
23.00M
202.00M
-
651.00M
984.00M
5.05B
776.00M
5.90B
-
6.88B
932.00M
1.68B
- 450000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.82B
10.24B
17.12B
-
5.08B
3.9B
-
- 87000.00K
- 87000.00K
- 1203000.00K
-
- 118000.00K
- 1218000.00K
875.00M
- 1664000.00K
-
- 794000.00K
1.21B
2.00B
957.00M
- 88000.00K
869.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$37.45
$69.99
$76.99
$84.68
$93.15