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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
West Bancorporation, Inc. (XNAS:WTBA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WTBA
Name:
WEST BANCORPORATION, INC. (XNAS:WTBA)
Sector:
8.57M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. David Nelson
Total Employees:
167
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WEST BANCORPORATION, INC.(WTBA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.06
One Month Price Target:
$24.18
Six Month Price Target :
$24.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.54
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.96
Price Upper limit ($) :
$24.17
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$22.8
This week:
$21.24
This month :
$18.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
399.20M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
16.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.61%
-16.2%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.91
$27.23
$18.21
$20.89
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$26.36
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.79
$21.75
$22.33
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WTBA
Sharpe Ratio:
0.78%
Comparison:
WTBA, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -36.51% lower than the industry
& is -65.78% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WTBA
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.58%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -36.57% below industry average
Classification:
WTBA, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.95
Statistical test of Returns:
WTBA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.56%
Weekly Volatility:
5.73%
Monthly Volatility:
11.46%
Yearly Volatility:
39.70%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -56.11% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.23%
Weekly VaR:
-11.71%
Monthly VaR:
-23.41%
How Much Can the price of
WTBA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.10%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.16
This translates to price declining to:
$4.55
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WTBA is a 65.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.55% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.28% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WTBA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.92
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.694
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.981
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.552
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.447
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.828
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.093
Beta is -16.16% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -4.86% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.51%
Sustainable growth rate is 47.98% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.025
Alpha is -316.25% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -160% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WTBA
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -3.29% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.68%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.25%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.94%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.94%
WACC is -20.09% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.30
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.69
Annual revenue growth rate is 64.07% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
18.98%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 57.86% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.61
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 21.13%
Equity growth rate per share is -45.43% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$11.84
EBITDA per share
$4.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
WTBA
P/E Ratio:
8.02
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.26
P/E ratio is -28.74% lower than main peers & is -35.33% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.72
WTBA is -36.22% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $31.04
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.08
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.82
Price to sales ratio is -10.70% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.69
Price to free cash flow: 9.21
Price to free cash flow ratio is -62.70% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
72.17%
Net income growth rate is 31.06% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.11%
Dividend yeild: 4.07%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $0.98
Expected next dividend best case: $0.26
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.24
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.23
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.80%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.25
2021-11-09--$0.24
2021-05-11--$0.24
2022-02-08--$0.25
2021-08-10--$0.24
2021-02-09--$0.22
Dividend growth rate is -92.36% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
83.29%
Net debt to equity ratio:
74.03%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.55%
Net debt to assets ratio:
4.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.67% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.54
Interest coverage ratio is 688.92% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-9.23%
Annual debt growth is -3014% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.432
Statistical significance of correlation:
WTBA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -13.69% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.026
Kurtosis
6.829
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.173
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WTBA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.74%
Effective tax rate is -3.73% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.58%
Return on equity (ROE) is 80.92% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.44%
Return on assets (ROA) is -37.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.48%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
627.7K
Each employee generates 65% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
482.3K
Each employee generates 114% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
305.6K
Each employee generates 116% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
51.3K
Each employee generates -38% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -38% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WTBA
APXT
HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:HTBI)
GLADSTONE INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:GAIN)
PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNYS:PNNT)
NGAC
MRAC
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLCO)
KHOSLA VENTURES ACQUISITION CO. (XNAS:KVSA)
EQUITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:EQBK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
104.83M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
32.35M
32.59M
233.00K
-
-
108.09M
12.32M
3.83M
80.55M
-
51.04M
64.40M
13.36M
51.04M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
973.00K
Differed Income Tax :
824.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
757.00K
Change in Working Capital :
758.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1193.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 977.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
15.52M
Investments in PP&E:
- 6951.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 120077.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
21.90M
797.91M
819.81M
10.08M
-
-
-
40.90M
-
-
797.91M
-
-
-
3.55B
3.55B
-
-
-
-
-
-
196.95M
-
196.95M
3.51B
3.31B
3.00M
246.83M
- 42768.0K
29.42M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
236.48M
3.55B
1.60B
196.95M
175.1M
25.73M
- 29465.00K
- 130763.00K
- 35.00K
-
- 1519.00K
- 4139.00K
72.37M
66.67M
-
- 48570.00K
144.26M
192.83M
15.52M
- 6951.00K
8.57M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WTBA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$25.67
$35.46
$37.64
$39.96
$42.43