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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Werner Enterprises, Inc. (XNAS:WERN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WERN
Name:
WERNER ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:WERN)
Sector:
81.33M
Industry:
Trucking
CEO:
Mr. Derek Leathers
Total Employees:
13,525
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -176.05% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WERNER ENTERPRISES, INC.(WERN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRUCKING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
39.48
One Month Price Target:
$39.66
Six Month Price Target :
$40.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$41.63
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$39.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.63
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.89
This week:
$35.91
This month :
$32.35
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.47B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
63.42M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.06%
-8.49%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.88
$43.49
$32.08
$35.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.39
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.66
$36.56
$37.30
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WERN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.10%
Comparison:
WERN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -65.69% lower than the industry
& is -51.77% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WERN
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.61%
Yearly returns:
31.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -76.65% below industry average
Classification:
WERN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
WERN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.98%
Weekly Volatility:
4.43%
Monthly Volatility:
8.86%
Yearly Volatility:
30.70%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.07%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 4.67% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.04%
Weekly VaR:
-9.03%
Monthly VaR:
-18.07%
How Much Can the price of
WERN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-62.59%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.31
This translates to price declining to:
$14.77
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WERN is a 27.52% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 9.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -39.13% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WERN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.81
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.595
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.841
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.655
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.365
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.585
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.472
Beta is -44.96% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.38
Beta is -41.30% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.93%
Sustainable growth rate is -20.20% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.013
Alpha is -107.14% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -86% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WERN
Equity cost of capital:
0.087
Equity cost of capital is -30.98% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.03%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.93%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.93%
WACC is -24.21% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$45.45
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.82
Annual revenue growth rate is -80.10% below industry average
EPS:
$3.96
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.58%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -57.14% lower than the Trucking industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.56
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 31.05%
Equity growth rate per share is -75.73% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.64
EBITDA per share
$9.95
Valuation Analysis Today of
WERN
P/E Ratio:
9.83
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
63.51
P/E ratio is -84.53% lower than main peers & is -40.58% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $65.48
WERN is -39.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.38
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.48
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.87
Price to sales ratio is -95.25% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.82
Price to free cash flow: 8.66
Price to free cash flow ratio is -83.11% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
61.25%
Net income growth rate is 974.08% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.94%
Dividend yeild: 1.22%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.48
Expected next dividend best case: $0.13
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.11
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.10
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.46%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 18/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-14--$0.12
2021-10-01--$0.12
2021-04-16--$0.10
2021-12-31--$0.12
2021-07-02--$0.12
2020-12-31--$0.09
Dividend growth rate is -92.57% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
31.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
22.39%
Debt to assets ratio:
15.90%
Net debt to assets ratio:
11.34%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -66.68% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
125.66
Interest coverage ratio is -14.29% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
755.00%
Annual debt growth is 860% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 19.38%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.415
Statistical significance of correlation:
WERN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is -8.06% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.042
Kurtosis
7.089
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.65
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WERN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
69%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.45%
Operating profit margin is -101.02% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
69%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.28%
Effective tax rate is 7.48% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.03%
Return on equity (ROE) is 20.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.14%
Return on assets (ROA) is 49.07% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.34
Current ratio is -44.08% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
50
Cash conversion cycle is 72.51% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.13%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
213.1K
Each employee generates -19% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
46.7K
Each employee generates -8% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
19.9K
Each employee generates -16% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.0K
Each employee generates 11% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
145.7K
Each employee generates 11% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WERN
RENT-A-CENTER, INC. (XNAS:RCII)
FORWARD AIR CORPORATION (XNAS:FWRD)
FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ULCC)
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:HLIO)
MERCURY SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MRCY)
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COMPANY (XNAS:ALGT)
Enovix Corporation (XNAS:ENVX)
ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION CORP. (XNAS:AIMC)
HUB GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HUBG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�54%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.88B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.38B
498.47M
-
118.46M
118.46M
-
49.82M
168.28M
1.19M
5.02M
270.98M
631.31M
330.19M
268.74M
356.60M
86.57M
268.74M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
67.23M
Differed Income Tax :
- 254.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.03M
Change in Working Capital :
38.18M
Accounts Receivables:
11.28M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 8262.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
154.96M
Investments in PP&E:
- 73629.00K
Net Acquisitions:
705.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
125.95M
-
125.95M
475.51M
12.11M
64.79M
678.35M
1.61B
74.40M
53.96M
-
-
232.71M
1.97B
-
2.65B
113.66M
5.00M
-
-
171.61M
290.27M
421.25M
289.45M
980.06M
-
1.27B
805.00K
1.71B
- 15820.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.55B
1.34B
2.61B
-
426.25M
300.3M
-
38.39M
- 34538.00K
- 101250.00K
-
- 36180.00K
- 7895.00K
96.34M
- 48983.00K
317.00K
71.75M
125.95M
54.20M
154.96M
- 73629.00K
81.33M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WERN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$41.84
$44.12
$46.52
$49.05
$51.72