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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Welltower Inc. (XNYS:WELL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WELL
Name:
WELLTOWER INC. (XNYS:WELL)
Sector:
-
Industry:
REIT�Healthcare Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Thomas DeRosa
Total Employees:
464
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -119.99% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WELLTOWER INC.(WELL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�HEALTHCARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
75.83
One Month Price Target:
$76.25
Six Month Price Target :
$78.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$80.82
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$75.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$76.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$71.02
This week:
$65.07
This month :
$54.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
35.35B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
463.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.18%
-24.4%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$98.17
$87.95
$53.49
$63.71
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$84.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$82.44
$67.01
$69.22
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WELL
Sharpe Ratio:
0.96%
Comparison:
WELL, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -688.41% lower than the industry
& is -57.74% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WELL
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.19%
Monthly returns:
0.78%
Yearly returns:
0.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 2004.17% above industry average
Classification:
WELL, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.7
Statistical test of Returns:
WELL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.11%
Weekly Volatility:
6.95%
Monthly Volatility:
13.91%
Yearly Volatility:
48.17%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.83%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.45% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.35%
Weekly VaR:
-14.19%
Monthly VaR:
-28.39%
How Much Can the price of
WELL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$57.13
This translates to price declining to:
$11.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WELL is a 100.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 71.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.58% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WELL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.98
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.778
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.1
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.875
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.789
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.018
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.905
Beta is 8.14% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.031
Beta is -5.08% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.005
Alpha is -94.47% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -34% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WELL
Equity cost of capital:
0.099
Equity cost of capital is -3.51% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.81%
Before-tax cost of debt:
16.53%
After-tax cost of debt:
13.06%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
13.06%
WACC is 43.35% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.83
Annual revenue growth rate is -2452.11% below industry average
EPS:
$0.75
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.17
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -30.93%
Equity growth rate per share is 56.33% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$4.54
EBITDA per share
$4.15
Valuation Analysis Today of
WELL
P/E Ratio:
142
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
40.21
P/E ratio is 253.13% higher than main peers & is -13.12% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $122.58
WELL is -38.14% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.70
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.43
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.95
Price to sales ratio is 7.20% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.83
Price to free cash flow: 34.99
Price to free cash flow ratio is 22.84% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-62.45%
Net income growth rate is 19.58% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.00%
Dividend yeild: 3.22%
Previous Dividend: $0.61
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.61
Previous Dividend: $2.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.70
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.52
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.66
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -2.99%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 24/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/10/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-23--$0.61
2021-11-15--$0.61
2021-05-10--$0.61
2022-02-28--$0.61
2021-08-11--$0.61
2021-02-19--$0.61
Dividend growth rate is -82.51% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
11.76%
Net debt to equity ratio:
14.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.93%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -88.95% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.94
Interest coverage ratio is 111.45% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.23%
Annual debt growth is -61% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.581
Statistical significance of correlation:
WELL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is 0.60% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.038
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.069
Kurtosis
16.901
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.012
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WELL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.37%
Operating profit margin is -22.82% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.11%
Effective tax rate is -102.85% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
1.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is -48.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.92%
Return on assets (ROA) is -47.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.88
Current ratio is -16.62% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
150.4
Cash conversion cycle is 534.07% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
10.9M
Each employee generates 10% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
4.1M
Each employee generates -34% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
703.7K
Each employee generates -66% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.0K
-
Assets/Capital per employee
4.1M
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WELL
REALTY INCOME CORPORATION (XNYS:O)
CBRE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:CBRE)
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:AVB)
ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC. (XNYS:ARE)
DIGITAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:DLR)
WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY (XNYS:WY)
NRZ-PC
EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC. (XNYS:EXR)
INVITATION HOMES INC. (XNYS:INVH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.06B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.16B
1.51B
-
134.51M
134.51M
-
1.61B
1.75B
78.67M
488.41M
1.11B
1.92B
676.28M
326.52M
223.66M
- 243.00K
326.52M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
304.09M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 306666.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
301.09M
1.14B
1.44B
1.00B
-
-
2.44B
-
68.32M
1.84B
-
-
-
1.91B
34.94B
35.47B
-
848.97M
-
-
-
848.97M
2.10B
13.34B
15.45B
-
16.29B
455.38M
- 5655253.39K
- 138472.0K
23.23B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.40B
17.90B
34.19B
-
2.95B
2.7B
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 0.61K
-
-
-
-
-
346.76M
-
-
-
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WELL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$84.68
$90.24
$96.18
$102.50
$109.24